NWSA

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Disney Joins the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company have performed well over the past year, and we see room for additional upside. By Callum Turcan Media and entertainment giant The Walt Disney Company (DIS) was just added to our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (article link here announcing recent portfolio changes). Though the firm does not register the typically high Valuentum Buying Index rating that we would prefer with new additions (sometimes we have to relax criteria to achieve newsletter portfolio goals), we like Disney’s business model and its future free cash flows are underpinned by: a top quality intellectual property (‘IP’) portfolio that’s practically impossible to replace, the immense profitability of its theme parks (which benefit from its strong and ever-growing IP … Read more

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds

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Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception. Though the book focuses more on the life and times of founder Jim Simons and dedicated only a page or two to the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), another quant fund that went belly-up during the late 1990s, it was nonetheless a thoroughly interesting and enjoyable read. But why I am bringing up one of the most successful quant … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Media Entertainment Industry

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Structure of the Media (entertainment) Industry The media (entertainment) industry spans firms with diversified worldwide entertainment operations to those that specialize primarily in motion picture production and technologies. Firms with media network businesses compete for viewers with other networks, while companies with studio entertainment businesses compete with all forms of entertainment. A significant number of companies produce theatrical/television films, and success depends on unpredictable public preferences. The strongest participants will consistently create filmed entertainment and/or cable programming that consumers want. We’re neutral on the group. For our coverage of firms in the Media (entertainment) industry, please click here.

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

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Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

Apple Surges Higher!

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Image Shown: Shares of Apple continue to surge higher and were supported by positive US-China trade talk news on Friday October 11. By Callum Turcan One of our favorite companies, Apple (AAPL), has been off to the races with shares pushing up into the mid-$230s as of this writing. Apple is a top holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We value Apple at up to $266 per share at the top end of our fair value estimate range, and shares of AAPL yield 1.3% as of this writing. Please note Apple’s fiscal year ends in late September. Let’s start out by covering an area Apple has had some trouble with over the past few … Read more

Apple Makes Its Big Push Into Services

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Image Shown: Apple announced that Apple TV+ would launch November 1, 2019, during its big update event on September 10. This marks the beginning of Apple’s transition from a hardware and software company to a hardware, software, and services giant. By Callum Turcan On September 10, Apple Inc (AAPL) held its big hardware and software event but the real star of the show was services. Namely, Apple TV+ which will launch this upcoming November 1 at the relatively low price of just $4.99 per month. That’s below the starting price point offered by Apple’s (future) video streaming competitors including Netflix (NFLX), Walt Disney Company (DIS), and others. Apple is coming out swinging with star studded launches of its own exclusive … Read more

Netflix Misses Net Subscriber Growth Estimates, Shares Plummet

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By Callum Turcan Shares of Netflix Inc (NFLX) were crushed during the trading session July 18 after the video streaming company posted second-quarter 2019 earnings. The big miss in its net subscriber additions was the main reason why. The company added 2.7 million net paying subscribers to its ranks during the quarter (way below guidance calling for 5.0 million), bringing its total paid subscriber count to 151.6 million worldwide at the end of the second quarter. That’s along with 6.1 million free trial accounts, which could be viewed as a growth pipeline considering some, but not all, of those subscribers will likely become paying members. Most see the big miss on net subscriber additions as the key culprit behind Netflix’s … Read more

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more

ATTN: Advisors and Planners — Disruption Is Looming

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“With the commoditization of investment advice and intense competition from robos and other more cost-efficient solutions, growth-minded advisors want to create bespoke experiences for clients.” — WealthManagement.com By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi Valuentum members, colleagues and friends, Valuentum has a large subscriber base and is one of the most successful paid subscription financial information websites launched this decade. Over the past eight years or so, individuals, financial advisors and money managers from all over the world have subscribed to our services. We pride ourselves on independence and transparency, and we’re a champion of the investor. Today, I’d like to talk directly to our financial advisor, financial planner, and professional money-manager members. You probably already heard the news yesterday: Charles Schwab, which handles … Read more