NVS

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

by

President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Strategy Versus Tactics in the Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio

by

Image Source: fauxto_digit We made a few tactical tweaks to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio during 2017. Let’s walk through them, and how we’re out to win the war, not win every battle. < Note: The introduction is the same as that of the tactical analysis of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. If you have already read through the introduction, please proceed to the section, Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio below. > By Brian Nelson, CFA I’m not going to reference The Art of War written by Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu some time in the 5th century, nor am I going to use any quotes from the military treatise (I think it’s too well-traveled of a topic), but I do … Read more

Celgene Implodes

by

The pharma/biotech industry operates in a boom-bust environment where the market cap of a company can post a meteoric rise or suffer a precipitous fall based on the data published from recently completed clinical trials. The industry remains one of the most innovative fields, but the quest for new products leads to constant disruption and a subsequent spike in volatility. Of late, the volatility pendulum for Celgene has swung in favor of the bears with the company posting a costly phase 3 failure. By Alexander J. Poulos Mongersen The vitality of the clinical pipeline, in our view, is the critical differentiator in the biotech space (XBI, IBB) due to the loss of revenue once patent protection lapses on existing products. … Read more

Novartis Gearing Up for Growth

by

Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Novartis continues to grow its free cash flow stream while producing a string of products still in the infancy of their respective growth curves. The pharma/biotech realm remains bedeviled with patent issues that can disrupt cash flow generation once protection is lost, causing us to look for companies positioned for a fresh leg of growth. To that end, let’s take a look at Novartis’ pipeline, near-term potential, and how it relates to its dividend health. By Alexander J Poulos Alcon Division In Novartis’ (NVS) third quarter of 2017, results released October 24, its Alcon division posted an impressive constant-currency revenue jump of 7% from the year-ago period and a 23% year-over-year increase in core operating … Read more

Amazon Casts a Large Shadow Over the Pharmacy Industry

by

Image Source: Mike Mozart It is our belief the food retailing industry is in the midst of widespread disruption with Amazon’s attempt to break into the supermarket game with its audacious purchase of Whole Foods. The Whole Foods acquisition is not likely to be an isolated one-off event; instead, it may be a harbinger of Amazon’s ambition to break into new markets, thus expanding its overall percentage of retail sales. We update our views on Amazon and how the company may eventually impact newsletter portfolio holding CVS Health. By Alexander J. Poulos Emulating the Costco Model Amazon’s (AMZN) purchase of Whole Foods (WFM) may be the initial step towards emulating the uber-successful Costco (COST) model where the bulk of profits … Read more

Best in Biotech? Global Blood Therapeutics’ Promising Treatment for Sickle Cell Anemia

by

We remain impressed with the depth of research conducted over a wide host of disease states. Though a molecule may appear to hold significant promise in the pre-clinical phase, we have often witnessed the unique ability of the human body to react to various treatments. Often an unwanted side effect can torpedo a treatment, thus relegating millions of dollars of research obsolete. However, if a promising molecule is brought to market, the payoff is often well worth the effort. Our goal is to sift through the various clinical data to unearth the most promising treatments with the understanding that nothing is assured until the FDA authorizes the product for marketing in the US. We believe we have identified a promising … Read more

Canakinumab Posts Some Impressive Data For Novartis

by

We remain impressed with the depth of the clinical pipeline that is currently being brought out to market by the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Novartis. We closely follow the data delivered from clinical trials to gauge the potential for the pipeline; in the case of Novartis, we feel the strength of the emerging pipeline bodes very well for continued dividend growth over the next few years. In this piece, we will detail the clinical results for Canakinumab, as we feel the molecule will nicely complement Novartis’ burgeoning cardiovascular unit. By Alexander J. Poulos Canakinumab   Image source: Novartis Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) remains one the largest areas of need based on the sheer number of patients afflicted with some form … Read more

Gilead Sciences Finally Takes Out A Promising Biotech

by

Image Source: Gilead We were generally pleased to see that Gilead Sciences has decided to put its vast cash hoard to use by acquiring a cutting-edge technology that will further its clinical pipeline. Though it has become fashionable for many in the investment world to engage in M&A speculation as to whom Gilead might finally acquire, our research focus has instead been on the fundamental case, and the inevitable decline in HCV sales seems to have stabilized with the company reporting a beat-and-raise quarter this past July. Based on the improved outlook, the vastly improved technical backdrop, and improved technicals, we added the company to the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We also think Gilead has largely … Read more

Generic Drug Price Deflation Continues to Weigh on Shares of Teva

by

Shares of former Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Teva Pharmaceuticals have come under renewed selling pressure after reporting weak quarterly results due largely to deflationary price pressures felt in the generic drug division. Teva has been relatively powerless in stopping the trend. We had removed the shares from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio well before the last leg down, and the Dividend Cushion ratio warned of tremendous risk to the sustainability of the dividend far in advance. By Alexander J. Poulos and Kris Rosemann Generic Drug Deflation Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) maintains its position as one of the world’s largest manufacturer of generic medications, but the marketplace for a generic drug differs from the market dynamics of the branded space. We view … Read more

Amgen’s Pipeline Continues to Disappoint

by

Image Source: Amgen The ability to generate commercially-viable products via the clinical pipeline is crucial to grow profits and offset revenue declines from the loss of patent protection. We remain unimpressed with the progress shown thus far by biotech stalwart Amgen. Let’s review the clinical pipeline along with a consideration of the recently-released earnings report. By Alexander J. Poulos Clinical Pipeline We believe the three most promising molecules in Amgen’s (AMGN) pipeline in order of importance are Repatha, Evenity, and Erenumab. Amgen’s ability to develop and market these products will go a long way to shore up the top-line revenue as older products begin to face biosimilar challenges that continue to sap revenue and profits. Let’s examine each in further … Read more