NVS

PCSK9 Woes Weigh on Amgen and Regeneron

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Image shown: Amgen and Regeneron have both meaningfully trailed the market since October of 2017.  The robustness of the clinical pipeline offers an important clue regarding the health and vitality of a biotech/pharma company, as the clinical pipeline is critical towards maintaining and growing the top line. One of the most promising, and dare-we-say, overhyped new treatments to enter the market is the PCSK9 cholesterol-lowering agents, with Amgen and Regeneron leading the pack. Let’s discuss the results of Regeneron’s treatment along with a discussion of the path forward for the treatment. By Alexander J. Poulos Amgen’s Repatha The PCSK9 class is delineating into two competing treatments with little to differentiate between the two products. The key to perhaps gaining a … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Updating Our Thoughts on Celgene

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Image Source: Celgene Q4 2017 Earnings presentation Although the combination of disruptive new discoveries coupled with burgeoning demand thanks to the aging demographics of the world’s population sets the biotech space for a potential virtuous long-term cycle, we’re not too happy with with the recent developments at Celgene. Let’s dig in. By Alexander J. Poulos Pipeline Woes Continue The share price of Celgene (CELG) was accelerating heading into the Fall of 2017 as the strength of its existing oncology pipeline coupled with a few late-stage molecules augured well for a continued advance in the share price. As detailed in a recent piece aptly named “Celgene Implodes,” the costly discontinuation of Mongersen cast doubt on Celgene’s ability to hit its long-term … Read more

Johnson & Johnson in Transition Mode

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Image Source: Johnson & Johnson Fourth Quarter Earnings Presentation Shares of Johnson & Johnson have performed well since being added to both the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. We continue to be impressed with the depth of the clinical pipeline as Johnson & Johnson has an appealing mixture of mature and early-stage products that power the portfolio. Let’s examine the three main franchises of the portfolio to gain a better understanding of the depth of Johnson & Johnson’s Pharmaceutical division. By Alexander J. Poulos Immunology The Immunology Division remains the engine that drives performance at Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) as the group accounts for nearly one third of total sales. The division reported operational … Read more

A Key Inflection Point for Gilead Sciences

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We have closely followed events at Gilead Sciences for signs of an inflection point as we have long felt the market is myopically focused on the Hepatitis C franchise instead of cash flows. Our decision to add the idea to the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has played out very well as the share price remains locked in an uptrend. We are updating our thesis following the recent conference call. By Alexander J. Poulos Looking Past HCV Image Source: Gilead Sciences Lost in the cacophony of opinions on Gilead (GILD), we are amazed at the intense focus on the Hepatitis C franchise by the investment community. In our opinion, the HCV franchise remains … Read more

The Turnaround at Novartis Has Begun

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Image Source: Novartis We believe Novartis is poised to accelerate from the patent cliff caused by the loss of protection of Gleevec, its former top-selling product. The company has a stellar dividend growth history, and the market is anticipating a turnaround once it anniversaries the patent cliff. By Alexander J. Poulos Novartis Innovative Medicines We will begin our analysis of Novartis (NVS) by breaking down the European pharma giant into three distinct divisions to gain a better perspective of the various moving parts that make up this very innovative company. The Innovative Medicines division houses the patent protected molecules that make up the bulk of the group’s revenues and an outsize portion of its profitability. The star of the show … Read more

Airlines to Start a Price War?

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Some have said the airline industry has changed. We’ve always been cautious on the structural characteristics of the airline business, and United Continental has reminded us why. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The US Treasury is scheduled to announce its plans to finance the government’s shortfall over the next three months January 31, and many are forecasting a significant rise in the sale of government paper. 2018 could mark the first year the government will increase Treasury bond sales, and some estimates have the issuance at more than $1 trillion, the highest level since 2010. The current 10-year Treasury yield is ~2.65%, and a significant influx of supply into the Treasury bond market could drive prices meaningfully lower, … Read more

GlaxoSmithKline: Not All Dividends Are Created Equal

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Many seeking ideas to generate dividend income may be drawn to slow-growing entities with large dividend yields. However, without proper examination of the balance sheet and competitive position, an investor may enter a position banking on a steady dividend stream only to be caught by a sudden cut in the dividend. It is growing increasingly likely that GlaxoSmithKline may be ready to sacrifice the dividend on the altar in the name of additional M&A, in our view. By Alexander J. Poulos GSK Overview GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) remains a venerable European entity with a number of business lines similar to its US rivals such as Pfizer (PFE). At GSK’s core is its heavy reliance on research to bring forth additional novel branded … Read more

Gilead Sciences’ HCV Guidance Is the Star of the Show

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Shares of Gilead Science have been held hostage due to the vagaries of the HCV business. The shares blasted through $100 as the initial sales ramp for its suite of HCV meds took the market by storm. The record revenues posted in 2015 proved to be unsustainable, however, as the curative nature of the treatment meaningfully decreased the eligible pool of patients much to the benefit of society. The Street subsequently punished shares of Gilead as the equity made a near roundtrip back down the high $60’s. The investment community has maintained a near-maniacal obsession with the HCV pipeline with the latest fear of a new competitor stealing share. Let’s examine these key points a bit further. By Alexander J. … Read more

2018 Healthcare and Biotech Outlook

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Image Source: Global Panorama. 

2017 will undoubtedly go down as one of the most fabulous years for the stock market, and while we continue to warn of the dangers associated with the market continuing to trade at lofty valuations, we are intrigued by the outlook for big cap pharma and biotech in the near term. Changes in the US tax laws will likely have a profound impact on the industry.