NKE

Janet Yellen, the Positive GDP Revision, and Nike’s Swoosh

by

Though it may seem much worse, the S&P 500 (SPY, DIA) is down only a few percentage points from the all-time highs set in May this year. We continue to remind equity investors that the US stock markets have roughly tripled from the March 2009 panic bottom only six short years ago, so further declines in the form of profit taking may still be ahead. However, the throngs of investors looking to “get back to even” before selling may account for more overhead supply than we care to admit. Returns have been so wonderful in yesteryears’ upward-sloping bull market that even flat equity market performance may become unbearable going forward, adding to yet more selling pressure. The swoon in late … Read more

Batten Down the Hatches – Another US Market Crash Probable

by

A global financial contagion like that of the Financial Crisis just six short years ago cannot be ruled out. The magnitude of wealth lost in China’s (FXI) equity market is simply staggering, and we’re already witnessing bad loans soar across China’s Big 4 banks. We’re hearing that property, used as collateral for stock margin trading in China, is often being sold for 90 cents on the dollar as speculators look to cover losses. We expect the fallout from the collapse in Chinese equity markets to eventually reverberate through their property markets, impacting loan-to-values in the commercial and residential arenas, sparking significant loss rates and asset write-downs across the Chinese financial system. We continue to assess the tangible evidence of an … Read more

Some Wiggle Room, Please

by

Let’s go around the horn. Staples (SPLS) and Office Depot (ODP) will, in fact, join forces. The duo announced February 4th that Staples will pay $6.3 billion for its rival, valuing Office Depot at $11 per share, a nice premium to its previous day close and relative to our fair value estimate. Management expects to generate at least $1 billion in annualized cost savings. Removing redundant overhead, streamlining distribution and carving out other efficiencies will be par for the course. We also think pricing will ease up a bit, though competition from Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will always be present. We wouldn’t expect Office Depot’s equity to converge to the take-out price until the regulatory review is completed, likely … Read more

Wow…Nike. Wow. Innovation Brews Growth.

by

Home to some of the strongest brands on the planet, Nike (NKE) is simply a fantastic company. Brand value is quantifiable through the company’s ability to monetize it in the form of future free cash flows, but while the company’s future free cash flows don’t justify scooping up shares at present levels of ~$90 per share, fundamentals at the company have never been stronger. Nike’s fiscal 2015 first quarter results, released September 25, were nothing short of impressive. Revenue jumped 15%, while diluted earnings per share leapt 27% during the period. A shift in mix to higher-margin products, higher average selling prices and continued growth in its higher-margin direct-to-consumer business drove the firm’s gross margin higher. A lower tax rate … Read more

Apple Conference Better Than Expected

by

It is sometimes with hesitation that we talk about Apple (AAPL) because it is one of the most widely covered stocks. We often try to highlight hidden gems across our coverage universe, but when things are going well…well…things are going well. The iPhone maker has been one of the best performers in the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio, and the new products at the September 9 event speak to continued sustainability of strong fundamentals. View event replay here >> The biggest surprise at the event, in our view, was the release of both Apple’s first wearable device (called Apple Watch) and its first payments solution (called Pay). “The Apple Watch is available in two different sizes and comes … Read more

Tiffany Dazzles in Second Quarter; Coach Now Yielding ~4%

by

Be sure to catch Valuentum’s Brian Nelson discussing Tiffany’s reports on CNBC Asia at 9:30 PM CST today. The video clip will be posted to the website as soon as it is made available. Luxury jewelry maker Tiffany (TIF) reported fantastic second-quarter results Wednesday and raised its bottom-line guidance for the second time this year and in as many quarters. Tiffany has been benefiting from a modernization of its classical jewelry line-up thanks to the ongoing success of its newest ATLAS collection (shown right) and TIFFANY T jewelry collection (shown below). The ATLAS collection is named for the mythic Greek god and showcases Roman numerals in designs symbolic of strength and freedom on pieces ranging from pendants and earrings to … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

by

Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Tiffany and Nike Disappoint in China

by

Valuentum previously outlined the importance of brand strength in its comprehensive piece: “Valuentum’s Comprehensive Report on Retail Brands.” This article will focus on Tiffany’s (TIF) and Nike’s (NKE) performance in the Asia-Pacific, and where applicable, China, a country that we believe is vital for long-term expansion and to support our fair value estimates of both firms. Recent reports have put a damper on the outlook for luxury spending in China during 2014. Though the outlook is consistent with data points we’ve received with respect to slowing, but still robust, economic expansion in China, the commentary is worth nothing: Wealthy Chinese are likely to buy fewer luxury goods again this year after the steepest cut-back on spending in at least five … Read more