NFLX

PayPal on the Move to $125?

by

PayPal gets the backing of a new investor, and expectations are for the equity to trade to $125 within the next 18 months. We’re not as bullish on its valuation as others might be, but we’d be really excited to see this simulated Best Ideas Newsletter idea surge! By Brian Nelson, CFA We have been mighty pleased with PayPal’s (PYPL) performance since its split from eBay (EBAY), and while we do have some concerns regarding the impending and expected non-renewal of its agreement with eBay in coming years, we fully expect PayPal to replace lost business as eBay represents just a few months of expansion at its current growth run rate. Rivalries are heating up in the online payments space, … Read more

Private Equity Likely Interested in GameStop As Netflix Shocks Gaming Industry

by

Netflix may have taken the initial steps to enter the video-gaming market. Even as the digital streaming of games may have already signaled the death knell of GameStop’s lucrative physical used-game business, that Netflix may be moving into video games may further truncate not only GameStop’s longevity, but also have ramifications across the entire video-gaming landscape. Private equity may be interested in GameStop, nonetheless. By Brian Nelson, CFA The video-gaming complex was upended June 13 when Netflix (NFLX) announced that it would be producing “an interactive Minecraft series for kids and licensing Stranger Things for a video game.” Netflix said it doesn’t “have any plans to get into gaming,” but we think it only makes sense and is likely inevitable. … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

by

To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

Disney’s Top Line Growing as It Leverages Film Successes

by

Image Source: David Holt Media giant Disney has been executing well of late as it leverages its successful content into a broader scope of entertainment, but competition may be heating up related to its pending acquisition of Twenty-First Century Fox’s media assets. By Kris Rosemann Worldwide entertainment company Walt Disney (DIS) operates in four business segments: ‘Media Networks’ (cable and broadcast television networks, including ABC, ESPN and the Disney Channel), ‘Parks and Resorts’ (resorts in Florida, California, Paris and more), ‘Studio Entertainment’ (films under the Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm and Touchstone banners), and ‘Consumer Products & Interactive Media’ (the licensing of trade names, characters and literary properties). The company’s ‘Media Networks’ operation is the largest portion of its … Read more

What’s Working (or NOT Working) in Today’s Market?

by

Image shown: Crude oil continues to lead gainers while consumer staples, REITs, and energy MLPs continue to get shellacked. By Kris Rosemann The stock market during the first few months of 2018 has been marked by a meaningful return to volatility. Commodity prices from crude oil (USO) to aluminum have had their moments in the sun as material supply/demand imbalances of years past continue to sort themselves out, with the help of a few key players, of course (OPEC member nations in the case of crude oil, and Chinese pollution regulations and US trade policy changes in the aluminum example). Geopolitical uncertainty is keeping both world leaders and investors on their toes as the world continues to navigate multiple denuclearization … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

by

Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

Netflix Keeps Speculators’ Hopes Alive

by

Image Source: NodStrum Tech Netflix’s results for the first quarter of 2018 showed the earnings leverage that we’ve been looking for. We’re raising our fair value estimate materially as a result. By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 16, streaming movie provider Netflix (NFLX) reported fantastic top-line and subscriber growth numbers during its first quarter of 2018, with the top line accelerating to 40%+ growth over the prior-year quarter and total memberships leaping to 125 million, up from ~117.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2017 and ~99 million in the first quarter of last year. Net additions to its US streaming business came in at 1.96 million, while net additions across its non-US operations leapt by 5.46 million, a slow … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

by

Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Toys ‘R’ Us Liquidation News Transient to Toy Makers

by

Image Source: Hasbro Another icon from past decades announced that it may have to liquidate. Though we expect the toy makers to experience a transient impact, we don’t expect it to be lasting. Digital entertainment licensing remains a faster-growing, higher-margin business for them than physical toy sales, and we expect the focus for many toy makers going forward will be on the former, particularly given Disney’s Frozen success. By Brian Nelson, CFA There’s nothing like the announcement of a customer’s possible liquidation to send shares of suppliers tumbling. That’s what happened when Toys ‘R’ Us announced that it may have to cease operations as nobody appears to be coming to the rescue. Hasbro (HAS), Mattel (MAT), and JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) … Read more

Bioverativ’s Takeout, Visa’s Surge, and General Electric’s Pain

by

From Bioverativ’s takeout to Visa’s stock price surge to General Electric’s continued pain, there’s a lot going on in the stock market. Let’s cover some ground. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA It’s hard to believe this but our best idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Visa (V), is now a $124+ per share stock. We know how to pick ‘em, would you say? We don’t get everything correct, of course, but if you’ve read anything on our website, we can only hope that you’ve witnessed Visa’s meteoric rise. The high end of our updated fair value estimate range for Visa is north of $130 per share. What a wild ride it has been, to say the least, … Read more