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JPMorgan Outlines Scenario Where Dividend Could Be Cut

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JPMorgan posted a terrible first-quarter 2020 report April 14, missing analyst expectations (which are a wild guess in times like these) by a long shot. If the economy continues to worsen, JPMorgan’s results will get uglier from here. On the earnings call, management indicated that second-quarter provisioning might be incrementally worse if the economy worsens. There is also room for deterioration in its Markets segment if trading activity dies down and one would expect the Asset & Wealth Management segment results to worsen if the markets are flat-to-down from here. The government rescue programs might also prove to be a temporary fix and consumer and business debt might just go bad later after an initial fix from stimulus funds received … Read more

Wells Fargo Faces Regulatory Pressure Amid an Enormous Bad Debt Cycle

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Wells Fargo is facing the same enormous bad debt cycle ahead just like its big bank peers, but it is also carrying a ton of its own baggage at just the wrong time. Earnings had already been under pressure before the bad debt cycle had hit, and the bank is facing a very difficult regulatory situation, with a cap on total assets that has been in place since 2018. This is causing the bank to forgo revenue growth opportunities and make difficult trade offs to help existing customers over new customers. This means that Wells is competing with one arm tied behind its back; it has also meant substantially higher costs as the bank has done a ton of hiring … Read more

ICYMI — Video: The Question Is If the Economy Can Be Held Together Without Vast Equity Dilution

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President of Investment Research at Valuentum and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how the range of probable fair value outcomes of S&P 500 companies has increased as a result of COVID-19 and possible equity dilution on the downside to long-run inflationary pressures on stocks driven by runaway Fed and Treasury stimulus on the upside. — Editor’s note: Brian emphasizes the importance of “expert analysis” over “backward-looking analysis,” and we would like to clarify that he is not giving personalized advice. Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are … Read more

US Fiscal Stimulus and Emergency Spending Update

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Image Source: Pictures of Money By Callum Turcan On Thursday, April 9, the US Senate is set to hold a vote on whether to add additional funding towards helping small- and medium-sized businesses (‘SMBs’) on top of the $350 billion allocated towards a loan/grant program that was included in the recently passed $2+ trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (‘CARES Act’). Members who want to read our commentary on the CARES Act are encouraged to check out this article here, and for additional commentary, check out our ‘Recapping the Crash’ note here and one of our latest videos here. We sincerely hope everyone and their loved ones stay safe during the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Pivoting back to … Read more

Repub from July 2019 — The Valuentum Economic Roundtable

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This article was published July 23, 2019. We sat down with the Valuentum team to get their thoughts on the global economy and key issues that may threaten this near 10-year bull market. Let’s start with Valuentum’s Bank and Financials Contributor Matthew Warren, and then we’ll go around the horn. Matthew Warren: It’s interesting what’s happening at the nexus of the consumer and various retailers. It reminds me of the pockets of discretionary weakness back in 2008. I made money on Men’s Warehouse (TLRD) puts back then. Nobody is really in a rush to buy a suit, especially if they are concerned about their job prospects. At least we only have CLOs (collateralized loan obligations) and Europe/China stress to ponder … Read more

Bullets: Recapping the Crash, Where Are We Now?

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Image: The S&P 500 has only retraced a small part of its decline since the top in February 2020. By Brian Nelson, CFA In August 2019, Valuentum took a cautious bent on the markets, removing the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), raising cash at the time. Financials and energy have been material underperformers during the swoon, with the Fed/Treasury launching more stimulus than the Great Financial Crisis and Saudi Arabia/Russia continuing their oil-price war. Here’s what we said in August 2019: August 2019: There are myriad risks as we near the end of this now-decade long bull market: a US-China trade/currency war, slowing global economic growth (Germany’s economic growth turned negative during the … Read more

Attack COVID-19 With Forward-Looking, Expected Data

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President of Investment Research at Valuentum Brian Nelson shares his financial wisdom in detailing how the world must attack COVID-19 with forward-looking expected data (not backward-looking, empirical data) as the global economy faces what could become the worst business environment since the Great Depression, irrespective of government fiscal stimulus. — Editor’s note: Brian emphasizes the importance of “expert analysis” over “backward-looking analysis,” and we would like to clarify that he is not giving personalized advice. Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY and SCHG. Some … Read more

Banking Entities: The Technicals Tell the Story

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Image: The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF has experienced a tremendous amount of pain in recent weeks. From Value Trap: “It’s likely we will have another financial crisis at some point in the future, the magnitude and duration of which are the only questions. My primary reason for this view is not to be a doomsayer, but rests on the human emotions of greed and fear and the nature of a banking entity’s business model, which does not hold a 100% reserve against deposits. Our good friend George Bailey, played by actor Jimmy Stewart, in the movie It’s a Wonderful Life knew this very well when he tried to discourage Bedford Falls residents from making a “run” on the beloved … Read more

Fed Cuts 100 Basis Points, Launches More QE

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“Now, stocks and other assets are being sold, some indiscriminately. It is truly becoming a stock pickers market as opposed to a quant-led and index-led market. It takes a different kind of bravery to buy on massive down days and one must have conviction in their research that the company will not go away if massive downside scenarios do in fact emerge.” – Matthew Warren. In this piece, we cover our assessment of what the global markets might be facing in a bull-case, base-case, and bear-case scenario. Our base case is a substantial recession in the US and a financial crisis of some unknown magnitude. By Matthew Warren The tremendous (mostly downside) volatility in all asset markets globally during the … Read more

Closing ‘Crash Protection’ Again, Circuit Breakers Tripped Again, Too

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Closing ‘Crash Protection’ Again, Circuit Breakers Tripped Again, Too — By Brian Nelson, CFA — On February 24, 2020, we “added” put option “crash” protection, a 1% “weighting” in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, a position that was closed March 2 for a “solid double.”  — On March 6, 2020, we “re-established” put option “crash” protection, a 0.5%-1% weighting (June 30, 2020 with strike price of $250). During the trading range March 6, that put option’s daily price range was $9.25-$9.91, according to YahooFinance.  — Today, in this notification, we are “closing” crash protection yet again, with the June 30, 2020 puts with strike price of $250 trading at $25.00, for another solid double. Please … Read more