MRK

Merck Weighed Down by Currency But Reaffirms Full-Year 2012 Outlook

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Merck (MRK) provided guidance for the first quarter of 2012, and while its outlook came in below consensus expectations, the main driver behind the weakness was currency, a non-operating event. Specifically, the drug maker expects foreign exchange to impact sales 1% to 2% in its first quarter, with non-GAAP earnings per share expected to come in between $0.95 and $0.98 per share for the period (consensus was at $1.01). Despite the negative currency impact, Merck re-confirmed its guidance for full-year 2012 non-GAAP earnings per share to be between $3.75 and $3.85 per share. Though the news today suggests that some analysts were too optimistic about Merck’s bottom-line numbers, we think the company’s long-term trajectory remains in line with our forecasts. … Read more

Merck’s Shares Look Undervalued

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A version of this article appeared on Seeking Alpha’s website: https://seekingalpha.com/article/280602-mercks-shares-look-undervalued  As part of our process, we employ a discounted cash-flow model to arrive at a fair value estimate for every company within our equity coverage universe. In Merck’s (MRK) case, we think using a discounted cash-flow model is the best tool for valuation. We outline below our valuation summary for Merck and offer up our model template to investors if they are interested in using it to value any operating (non-financial) company they wish. This model template can be found at DCF Valuation Model Template. Valuation Summary We think Merck’s shares are worth $43 each based on our discounted cash-flow process. We’re forecasting revenue expansion in the low-double-digits for fiscal … Read more

Looking for a Pullback to Pick Up Johnson & Johnson’s Shares

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This article appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/278789-looking-for-a-pullback-to-pick-up-johnson-and-johnsons-shares As long-time followers of Johnson & Johnson (click ticker for report: ) know, the firm is a steady, established company that has pursued somewhat of a defensive strategy in light of the global economic situation, which continues to muddle along in the US. J&J has pulled back on capital expenditures and R&D, while cutting overhead expenses, amounting to material operating savings. Operating margins have improved from about 26.6% in 2008 to over 27.5% in 2010, and we think there is further room for expansion in coming years. We believe these operating improvements to be a low risk measure to improve the bottom line, and with expansion into international markets, the firm should … Read more

Which Mid-Stage Biotech Can Grow Into the Next Large Cap Biotech Behemoth?

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Image Source: Steven Depolo The biotech field is on the cutting edge of scientific research. The production of new therapies often positively affects the share price of these innovative companies as long-term revenue and earnings expectations become embedded in the stock price. Let’s take a look at several mid-stage biotechs that may grow into dominant players. By Alexander J. Poulos The application of ETFs in investment strategies has gained widespread adoption during the past decade. Though the blind use of ETFs—buying a basket of stocks at any price—comes with myriad risks, there are certain advantages in that some ETFs offer desired exposure to certain themes or sectors. When it comes to biotech, the most liquid biotech ETF is the iShares Nasdaq … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more

Best Idea Vertex Pharma Boosts Guidance (Again), Buying Back Stock While Awaiting Key Clinical Trials

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Image Shown: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc is one of our favorite biotech ideas. Image Source: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan One of our favorite biotech plays out there is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX), which is included as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The company’s commercial portfolio, meaning therapeutics that have already been approved by key health regulators, is centered on drugs that treat cystic fibrosis (‘CF’), including patients as young as four months old as well as older patients. Its branded commercialized CF treatments include TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO, SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI, ORKAMBI, and KALYDECO. Vertex Pharma is currently generating substantial revenue and cash flows from these offerings. Guidance Update Sales of its CF … Read more

How the FDA’s Delay of Baricitinib Impacts Eli Lilly and Incyte

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Image Source: Paul Sableman The FDA dealt Eli Lilly and Incyte an unforeseen blow recently by rejecting their marketing application for Rheumatoid Arthritis candidate Baricitinib. Where does the duo go from here? By Alexander J. Poulos an Kris Rosemann The drug approval process is chock full of pitfalls, and until regulators give the final okay, anything can happen. The widely held consensus was Eli Lilly’s (LLY) and Incyte’s (INCY) marketing application for Rheumatoid Arthritis candidate Baricitinib would be approved, but the FDA shocked everyone by issuing a complete response letter requesting further data. Where does the duo of Eli Lilly and Incyte proceed from here? Baricitinib We were optimistic the FDA would approve Baricitinib for the indication of Rheumatoid Arthritis … Read more

Economic Roundtable: Quant Quake, Quac-cidental Correlation

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Image Source: Anders Sandberg.  Last week, the markets may have revealed that internals aren’t all that healthy. Major equity markets experienced a “rotation” that reminded many investors of the “quant quake” from August 2007. As Valuentum’s Brian Nelson wrote in Value Trap, “just a few bad days in the market caused a rapid unwinding of many quant long-short strategies (back then). Goldman’s chief financial officer said at the time that the firm was witnessing ‘25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.’” On the surface, markets last week seemed relatively calm, but as the episode in 2007 revealed the activity last week may just be the calm before the storm. Many are pointing to overcrowded trades in betting against certain … Read more

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

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Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more