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2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 10

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 10. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          3M (MMM): now $1.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.49. Allegion (ALLE): now $0.45 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.41. Ameren (AEE): now $0.63 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.59. American Homes 4 Rent (AMH): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. Ametek (AME): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Ares Management (ARES): now $0.77 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.61. … Read more

The Dividend Cushion Ratio: Unadjusted Is Less Subjective, Adjusted Is More Subjective

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  Image Source: Mike Lawrence Question: I’m a subscriber. I’m looking at your Dividend Report for Enterprise Product Partners (EPD). It says your Valuentum Adjusted Dividend Cushion ratio for EPD is 1.8 (a ratio that includes future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), but several lines below it says the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, which is your regular normal ratio (a ratio that does not include future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), is 0.22. Please explain the difference between the two ratios, and what is considered a good ratio for the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, what is an excellent score, what is neutral and what is poor? Also, how much relative importance should … Read more

Nelson on Bogle, Part I

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“The kind of commentary that makes broad generalizations about expectations of future returns is exactly why people are so eager to get into passive investment strategies. Since the 1920s, it seems as though the individual investor has assumed the stock market was rigged or impossible for average Joes to figure out, but instead of the “I’ll get it next time” mentality that was present leading to the crash of ’29, individual investors have “evolved” to the point that now the idea is if you can’t beat the market, just buy the whole thing. Leaders like Bogle continue to take tremendous shortcuts in explaining forecasts, leaving the average investor like a student trying to copy math homework off a peer that … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.

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What is Valuentum Securities? Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. How do I subscribe to Valuentum’s investment research services? 1)    Click the following link: signup-page. 2)    Select your membership plan. 3)    Enter your contact details. 4)    Click ‘Sign Up.’ 5)    Complete your purchase. 6)   Your payment profile may be recurring, so please check … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 10

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending February 10. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 3M Company (MMM): now $1.175 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.11. Alaska Air (ALK): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.275. Allstate (ALL): now $0.37 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.33. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. Baldwin & Lyons (BWINA): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. Bank of Botetourt (BORT): now $0.14 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

Lowe’s Misses, Nordstrom Buckles, Target and Best Buy Shine

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Lowe’s Misses, Nordstrom Buckles, Target and Best Buy Shine — Need short idea considerations in this tumultuous market? Consider the Exclusive publication here. We release a new short idea consideration each month, in addition to an income and capital-appreciation idea.  — East Coast friends: Brian will be available for a book signing at Headline Books booth 957 at the American Library Association Conference at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington DC June 22 (more details to follow). Value Trap has been named a Next-Generation Indie Award Winner!  — By Brian Nelson, CFA — When asked about whether Valuentum is all about stock timing, I sometimes cringe. Roughly 90% of our work goes into figuring out what may be the best … Read more