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What’s The Deal with US Housing?

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Pictured: An unfinished sub-division in rural Illinois, May 2015. Springtime is here, and housing construction is booming. The US Census Bureau’s latest tally for the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of housing starts in April came in at 1.14 million, up an incredible 20% from the revised March estimate of 944k (sequentially) and up 9% from the April 2014 rate (year-over-year). That’s some nice expansion, to say the least. Our long-held indirect plays on the US housing recovery have been a couple of ETFs, which focus on an improving consumer credit environment and incremental loan growth from the depths of the Financial Crisis. The two ETFs can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we continue to believe that they … Read more

Thinking Out Loud

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I remember when I was fresh out of my undergraduate studies. I applied for a sell-side equity research position. I interviewed with a head sector analyst, and I remember the first question oh so well: What is a gross margin? It was strange. I couldn’t tell if he was joking or not. Of course I knew what a gross margin was, but was this a trick? The interview couldn’t be this easy, right? Well, after responding that a firm’s gross margin is revenue less cost of goods sold divided by revenue, let’s say that he was impressed. But I wasn’t sure why. To me, understanding what makes up a gross margin or operating margin or free cash flow margin or … Read more

Walmart and Target Both Beat Expectations

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Big box retailers have showcased some resilience during the third quarter, with Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW) and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) posting relatively strong results. Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) also followed through with respectable quarters, and we think this bodes well for most of the group heading into the holiday season. Walmart’s third-quarter results, released November 13, showed consolidated net sales advancing 2.8% with US comparable store sales increasing 0.5% for the 13-week period ended October 31, 2014. Walmart has been under competitive attack from a variety of fronts. Not only is Target its key rival, but dollar stores such as Family Dollar (FDO), Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) have been nipping at its heels through … Read more

Home Depot, Dick’s Sporting Goods Report Strong 3Q Results

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Tuesday brought a couple solid reports from the consumer discretionary sector (XLY). Home Depot (HD), which we think is a better operator than peer Lowe’s (LOW), posted an impressive comparable-store sales increase during the third quarter, while Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) showcased a strong high-teens pace of top-line expansion in the period. Our reasoning behind Home Depot’s operating superiority relative to Lowe’s is worth repeating. For starters, the most important metric to judge a business is return on invested capital (ROIC), or the amount of earnings (before interest) that a firm generates divided by the amount of capital that it must hold in the business in order to generate that earnings stream. Return on invested capital is not a pure … Read more

The Dividend Dilemma

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One of the core tenets of the Valuentum process not only rests in the all-important price vs. value consideration (see Valuentum’s Brian Nelson talk about that here), but also in “letting winners run.” At first read, these two items appear to be at odds with each other. For example, we preach about getting stocks at a bargain, but yet, we don’t sell holdings when they start to move beyond our estimate of their fair value. What gives? At the Valuentum core, we prefer an entry point that corresponds to the time when shares have substantial valuation and pricing support (i.e. they have high Valuentum Buying Index ratings), and we prefer an exit point when shares have little valuation and pricing … Read more

Home Depot’s and Lowe’s Performances Diverge

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Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) reported calendar second-quarter results this week. Home Depot continues to execute better than its peer, with the company witnessing strong performance in its spring seasonal business and across all geographies during the second quarter. Home Depot’s comparable sales growth of 6.4% in the US was also a full two percentage points better than Lowe’s second-quarter performance. Home Depot also upped its outlook for the remainder of the year, showcasing fantastic double-digit bottom-line expansion: Based on its second quarter performance and its outlook for the year, the company raised its fiscal 2014 diluted earnings-per-share guidance and now expects diluted earnings per share to be up approximately 20.2 percent to $4.52 for the year. This earnings-per-share guidance includes … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Home Depot Posts Solid Fourth Quarter Results, Hikes Dividend

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The world’s largest home improvement retailer reported solid fourth quarter results Tuesday. Comparable store sales advanced 4.4% in the period, while comp sales for US stores jumped 4.9%. Adjusting for the extra week in the same quarter a year ago, net earnings jumped nearly 20% in the fourth quarter, a very impressive showing. 2013 marked the company’s strongest comparable store sales growth in 14 years thanks in part to solid execution and a recovering housing market. Free cash flow for the year totaled $6.2 billion, about 7.9% of sales and up from $5.7 billion last year. Thanks to the strong cash flow performance, Home Depot increased its quarterly dividend to $0.47 per share ($1.88 per share on an annual basis, representing … Read more

Home Depot’s Third-Quarter Performance Better Than Lowe’s

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On Tuesday, Home Depot (HD) reported excellent third-quarter results. Total sales advanced 7.4% from the third quarter of last year as comparable store sales jumped by a similar amount – comparable sales for the US were 8.2%. Operating income jumped an impressive 32.3% from the same period a year ago, while net earnings for the period increased 28.4% on an adjusted basis, to $0.95 per share. The top-line strength and significant operating leverage was on display during the quarter, and Home Depot was quite positive for the remainder of fiscal 2013, too: Based on year-to-date performance and outlook for the remainder of the year, the company raised its fiscal 2013 sales guidance and now expects sales to be up approximately … Read more

Bed Bath & Beyond Rides the Housing Wave

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Wednesday afternoon, home goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond (click ticker for report: ) posted solid second quarter results thanks to an improving housing market. Revenue increased 8.9% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, slightly above consensus estimates. Earnings-per-share of $1.16 was an improvement of 18% compared to the year-prior and a penny above consensus expectations. Year-to-date, free cash flow sits at $365 million, equal to 6.7% of revenue. Comp Sales Growth Image Source: Company Filings, Valuentum Comparable sales growth accelerated during the second quarter, registering a number that was 3.7% higher than that of the previous year. The two-year stacked comp for the period sits at 7.2%, which we believe is a solid growth rate in a modest retailing environment. Management offers … Read more