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Dividend Growth Opportunity Home Depot Posts a Solid Earnings Report

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Image Source: Home Depot Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings Press Release By Callum Turcan New home construction activity along with do-it-yourself (‘DIY’) and do-it-for-me (‘DIFM’) activities remains robust in the US, which is great news for Home Depot Inc (HD). On May 18, Home Depot reported first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended May 2, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Home Depot’s GAAP revenues rose by 33% year-over-year and its GAAP operating income grew by 76% year-over-year as the home improvement and construction retailer reported strong demand from both its professional and retail customer base. We are huge fans of Home Depot and include the company as an idea in our Dividend Growth … Read more

Home Depot Shows the Home Has Never Been More Important

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Image Source: Home Depot. By Brian Nelson, CFA On Tuesday, February 23, Home Depot (HD) reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results (period ending January 31, 2021) that came in better than consensus estimates across the board. Not only did the top- and bottom- lines beat, but comparable store sales growth of 24.5% exceeded even some of the most optimistic forecasts for the home improvement retailer during the period. The average ticket price and the number of transactions advanced, while both professional (“Pro”) and Do-It-Yourself (“DIY”) customer revenue increased at a double-digit pace in the quarter. Home Depot also raised its dividend 10% and now yields ~2.5% on a forward-looking basis ($6.60 per-share dividend on an annualized basis). We continue to like … Read more

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios

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January 27, 2021 ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios We are raising the cash position in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. You can read the 2020 recap here. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we’re raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially … Read more

Zillow Continues to Disrupt Real Estate Market

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Image Source: Zillow Group Inc – May 2020 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Record low interest rates for mortgages in the US, largely a product of the Fed’s monetary stimulus measures (quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates), has gone a long way in stimulating demand for homes. According to the US Census Bureau, the national homeownership rate stood at 67.4% in the second quarter of 2020, up ~260 basis points from the same period the prior year. For reference, the domestic homeownership rate has been steadily climbing higher since 2015-2016 (when homeownership rates were in the low-60s% range) according to data provided by the US Census Bureau. Homeownership rates peaked in 2005-2006 at the high-60s% level before sliding significantly lower … Read more

News Brief: Stay at Home Stocks, REITs, Housing, Oracle, and AT&T

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Image: Number of COVID-19 cases reported weekly by WHO Region, and global deaths, 30 December 2019 through 18 October 2020. Source: WHO. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage on, though the healthcare community has become more adept at reducing the incidence of death given the many treatments now available to battle the disease. We continue to stay the course with the newsletter portfolios. Many of our favorites include Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet, and PayPal, among other moaty, net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouses tied to secular growth trends. Our focus remains on the long haul. The business models of many stay-at-home stocks are solid as they continue to reap the rewards of the accelerated trends of home office use and e-commerce proliferation. … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week October 2

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending October 2. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week American Financial (AFG): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.45. Bank OZK (OZK): now $0.275 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.273. Boise Cascade (BCC): now $1.60 per share supplemental dividend, was $0.10. Caledonia Mining (CMCL): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.085. Conagra Brands (CAG): now $0.275 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.212. Glacier Bancorp (GBCI): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. … Read more

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years

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Dear members: — We’re finally getting a pause in the rapid ascent of the markets on September 3rd. Though headlines may look scary and momentum/volatility investors could start to pile on to the downside, a modest retracement is actually a good thing. We continue to focus on the long haul with our processes, and we’re viewing the sell-off as profit taking, for the most part. — In the near term, the markets will also have to digest some speculators betting on mean reversion between “value” (cyclical) versus “growth” (secular), but we maintain the view that the value-versus-growth conversation is largely nonsense (see block quotes below), and mean reversion is something akin to the gamblers’ fallacy, in my humble opinion. Investors should also continue … Read more

Earnings Brief: BOX, CRM, WMT, TOL, HD/LOW

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Image Source: Toll Brothers. Iron Oak at Alamo Creek, Danville, CA.  By Brian Nelson, CFA Let’s cover some trends that may emerge out of the COVID-19 pandemic, including accelerated e-commerce proliferation and its impact on brick-and-mortar giants, as well as an increased likelihood of suburban sprawl that may propel some names while leaving others behind. Box, Inc. According to its website, Box (BOX) is “a leading Cloud Content Management platform that enables organizations to accelerate business processes, power workplace collaboration, and protect their most valuable information, all while working with a best-of-breed enterprise IT stack.” The company’s balance sheet isn’t as clean as we would like given its operating lease liabilities, but it does hold more than $270 million in cash … Read more

June Dividend Growth Newsletter & Intrinsic Value Investing

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“But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.“  —                — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 — By Brian Nelson, CFA — To add our new options commentary to your membership, please register here ($500/year). — Hi everyone!  — We remain unequivocally bullish on the markets and intrinsic value investing. We believe value today rests within companies that have strong net cash positions (all cash less short- and long-term debt) and solid expected future free cash flows … Read more

Repub from July 2019 — The Valuentum Economic Roundtable

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This article was published July 23, 2019. We sat down with the Valuentum team to get their thoughts on the global economy and key issues that may threaten this near 10-year bull market. Let’s start with Valuentum’s Bank and Financials Contributor Matthew Warren, and then we’ll go around the horn. Matthew Warren: It’s interesting what’s happening at the nexus of the consumer and various retailers. It reminds me of the pockets of discretionary weakness back in 2008. I made money on Men’s Warehouse (TLRD) puts back then. Nobody is really in a rush to buy a suit, especially if they are concerned about their job prospects. At least we only have CLOs (collateralized loan obligations) and Europe/China stress to ponder … Read more