IAT

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

by

Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

by

Image: Since the publishing of the first edition of the book Value Trap, the stylistic area of large cap growth (SCHG) has meaningfully outperformed both the equal-weight S&P 500 (SPY) and small cap value (IWN). Summary of Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio changes UnitedHealth Group (UNH): 0% –> 4%-6% Booking Holding (BKNG): 0% –> 4%-6% Chipotle (CMG): 1%-2% –> 6%-8% Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK): 0% –> 4%-6% By Brian Nelson, CFA With the debt-ceiling debate behind the markets, the regional banking crisis largely in the rear-view mirror, and the Fed winning the fight against inflation, a continuation of the strength in the markets as witnessed from the October 2022 lows can probably be expected. We “rode” the latest upswing with … Read more

ALERT: We’re ‘Raising Cash’ in the Newsletter Portfolios

by

Image: American Union Bank, New York City. April 26, 1932. Public Domain “We firmly believe that an investment in a bank must come with the acknowledgement of the distinct possibility that another financial crisis may occur at an unknown time in the future. Why? Banks do not keep a 100% reserve against deposits. Our good friend George Bailey knew this very well when he tried to discourage Bedford Falls residents from making a “run” on the famous and beloved Building and Loan.” – Brian Nelson, CFA, September 4, 2013   SUMMARY OF CHANGES Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 4%-6% à 0% Exxon Mobil (XOM): 4%-6% à 0% Chevron (CVX) 3%-5% à 0% Dollar General (DG): 3%-5% à 0% Korn/Ferry (KFY): 1%-2% à 0% … Read more

SVB Financial, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse Reveal Cracks in Global Financial System

by

Image: SVB Financial looks to be collateral damage of the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle, and we can’t rule out that other regional banks could have also managed interest-rate risk wrong. Shares of SVB Financial have collapsed, and other banks could be facing similar issues that have yet to come to light. Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA We don’t include any banks in the newsletter portfolios, but we include slight “exposure” to the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, primarily for diversification reasons. We have never been fans of the banking business model, and here is what we wrote in the first edition of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation: It’s likely we will have … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline

by

ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline — — In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He’ll talk about which companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he’s avoiding. This and more in Valuentum’s 2020 Exclusive conference call.   Note: This video was originally published August 2, 2020.    To watch the video >>   The Theory of Universal Valuation —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, … Read more

Valuentum Website Overview

by

Overview of the key features of valuentum.com/ (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. The Benefits of Premium Membership >> Subscribe Now!

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks

by

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Hi everyone, — Hope you are doing great! First, I wanted to let you know that we’re still working to get the second release of the survey out to you. Your participation in the survey will determine whether we launch a new business, so please do fill it out and keep a watchful eye out for … Read more

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected

by

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected Image: The market’s levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum’s text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. — Hi everyone, — Hope you all are doing great!  — Many of you have already filled out the survey, and I can’t thank you enough for that. For those that may have missed the email housing … Read more

*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes

by

*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes Image: Why are stock prices increasing while the near-term economy and near-term earnings outlook isn’t as bright as before…How unlimited quantitative easing, runaway government spending, increased inflation expectations impact equity values…Why this year’s earnings expectations or next year’s earnings expectations don’t matter much…Why Valuentum thinks equity values are rising today, even as the near-term outlook remains unclear. Scribbles on page 76 of Value Trap. — “I know it sounds crazy to say so during a global pandemic and during a recession, but the right multiple and the right earnings to use to value this market is an 18-20x multiple on $196 earnings, putting a fair value range on the S&P 500 today of 3,530-3,920. The … Read more

ICYMI — Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am.

by

  Image: My great-grandfather (second from left) and his buddies in the 88th Division of the United States Army during World War I, at the time of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919. He would serve under Major General William Weigel, become proficient in the 37mm gun, and take part in the largest offensive in U.S. military history, the Meuse-Argonne Campaign. As a corporal, he would survive the Great War and the Spanish flu pandemic, returning to the U.S. in May 1919 from the port of Saint-Nazaire, France on his way to Omaha, Nebraska.  This article was published May 15, 2020. — New (updated June 4): We continue to encourage members to study the ‘Duration of (Stock) Value Composition’ in Value Trap: Theory of … Read more