GILD

Top 5 Burning Questions on Gilead Sciences

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Image Source: Gilead Lab We felt answers to a few burning questions pertaining to the abysmal first-quarter 2018 earnings release by Gilead Sciences would be of value to our readers. We are not in the least bit impressed by the earnings print, but we feel patience may be well rewarded. The Questions: 1. When will the decline in the Hepatitis C franchise abate? 2. Which new product will drive future revenue growth? 3. Will Cytokine Release Syndrome sink the potential of Yescarta? 4. How durable is Gilead’s HIV franchise? 5. What else is in Gilead’s pipeline? << Read our write-up on Gilead’s first-quarter 2018 results By Alexander J. Poulos Question Number 1 – When will the decline in the Hepatitis … Read more

Gilead Sciences at the Crossroads; HIV and Oncology Franchises Promising

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Image Source: Gilead Sciences’ first-quarter 2018 results The loss of a key revenue-generating molecule is a tough, yet oftentimes manageable, portion of a pharma entity’s overall life cycle. Gilead Sciences is in the midst of a key turnaround as the loss of revenue from its Hepatitis C franchise is beginning to abate, while new novel treatments embark on the early stages of their respective revenue cycles. That said, we’d like to see traction in its HIV and oncology franchises, and perhaps the addition of a new franchise to the portfolio, or we will sour on the stock long-term. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways We are not at all surprised by the continued decline in revenue posted by Gilead’s HCV … Read more

Growth Continues at Bristol-Myers; Eliquis Fantastic

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Image Source: Bristol-Myers Bristol-Myers Squibb continues to put up nice revenue growth as demand for Eliquis is coming in better than expectations. The company’s hopes to win first-line therapy in combination therapy for non-small cell lung cancer have been dealt a severe blow, however. We haven’t liked Bristol-Myers’ share-price performance of late and remain on the sidelines. However, we are watching its equity closely for addition to the simulated newsletter portfolios. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways We remain astounded by the stellar growth of Eliquis as the product remains a runaway blockbuster for Bristol-Myers. The growth of Eliquis has surpassed our most optimistic expectations as it is now the market leader. We believe the growth in Opdivo is far … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

PCSK9 Woes Weigh on Amgen and Regeneron

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Image shown: Amgen and Regeneron have both meaningfully trailed the market since October of 2017.  The robustness of the clinical pipeline offers an important clue regarding the health and vitality of a biotech/pharma company, as the clinical pipeline is critical towards maintaining and growing the top line. One of the most promising, and dare-we-say, overhyped new treatments to enter the market is the PCSK9 cholesterol-lowering agents, with Amgen and Regeneron leading the pack. Let’s discuss the results of Regeneron’s treatment along with a discussion of the path forward for the treatment. By Alexander J. Poulos Amgen’s Repatha The PCSK9 class is delineating into two competing treatments with little to differentiate between the two products. The key to perhaps gaining a … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Updating Our Thoughts on Celgene

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Image Source: Celgene Q4 2017 Earnings presentation Although the combination of disruptive new discoveries coupled with burgeoning demand thanks to the aging demographics of the world’s population sets the biotech space for a potential virtuous long-term cycle, we’re not too happy with with the recent developments at Celgene. Let’s dig in. By Alexander J. Poulos Pipeline Woes Continue The share price of Celgene (CELG) was accelerating heading into the Fall of 2017 as the strength of its existing oncology pipeline coupled with a few late-stage molecules augured well for a continued advance in the share price. As detailed in a recent piece aptly named “Celgene Implodes,” the costly discontinuation of Mongersen cast doubt on Celgene’s ability to hit its long-term … Read more

A Key Inflection Point for Gilead Sciences

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We have closely followed events at Gilead Sciences for signs of an inflection point as we have long felt the market is myopically focused on the Hepatitis C franchise instead of cash flows. Our decision to add the idea to the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has played out very well as the share price remains locked in an uptrend. We are updating our thesis following the recent conference call. By Alexander J. Poulos Looking Past HCV Image Source: Gilead Sciences Lost in the cacophony of opinions on Gilead (GILD), we are amazed at the intense focus on the Hepatitis C franchise by the investment community. In our opinion, the HCV franchise remains … Read more

Rising Risk Free Rates Threatening Market, Removing CVS and Hanesbrands

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The most important variable to keep your eye on, the 10-year Treasury, is rising, and the long-term implications on equity values could be considerable. We don’t think the moves thus far have been too disruptive, but continued concerns over US tax receipts and infrastructure/defense spending could send sovereign yields roaring higher. As fourth-quarter earnings season marches on, let’s take a look at some meaningful recent quarterly reports. We’re also shedding two companies from the simulated newsletter portfolios. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The market continues to be on edge as it considers what the borrowing cost of US debt might be in the event of the next downturn, the timing the only uncertainty, now that it has significantly … Read more

Our Overview on Merck in Light of Recent Clinical Events

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Clinical data reads can have an outsize impact on the fortunes of the research-based pharma industry, irrespective of the size of the organization. We came away very impressed with the recent release from Merck and felt a timely overview of the various pharmaceutical products developed by the company would be of value to readers. By Alexander J. Poulos Third Quarter Results Image Source: Merck On October 27, Merck (MRK) released its third-quarter results. The results were met with an immediate sell-off in the shares as the pace of the clinical pipeline disappointed. To say the least, we were surprised by the aggressiveness of the sell-off–the catalyst for the leg down in the share price, in our view, is the declaration … Read more