GILD

Big Movers for the Week Ending September 28

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Those topping the big-movers board for the week ended September 28 include Gilead, Apple, Altria, Hasbro, Novartis, and more. By Christopher Araos This is a new weekly series launched to help readers stay up to date with big movers within the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Best Ideas Newsletter Winners Biotech powerhouse Gilead Sciences (GILD) advanced 2.3% during the week ending September 28 as the company announced a launch of generic versions for Epclusa and its blockbuster Harvoni. Another key mover of 2.2% on the week was Apple (AAPL), which persuaded a federal appeals court to throw out $234 million in damages for infringement of University of Wisconsin’s computer processing technology. Altria Group (MO) … Read more

Galapagos’ Filgotinib Scores Major Win for Gilead Sciences

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Image source: Gilead second quarter earnings presentation Filgotinib posted stellar data in a recent phase 3 trial for the treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis. In light of the data, we feel Galapagos and, by extension of their commercial partnership, Gilead Sciences possess a best in class molecule in immunology. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways Galapagos, which is ~15%-owned by Gilead Sciences, released stellar data of its lead compound Filgotinib.  Filgotinib again demonstrated a lack of clotting, which has torpedoed other competing promising molecules. In our opinion, Filgotinib is well on its way to a best in class profile which augurs well for Galapagos and its commercial partner Gilead Sciences. Though we continue to be cautious about any pharmaceutical/biotech idea, we … Read more

Gilead Sciences at the Crossroads

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We continue to be big fans of the transformation currently underway at Gilead Sciences. That said, however, we were initially surprised by CEO John Milligan’s decision to step down. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways CEO John Milligan announced he is stepping down thus closing the book on the original management team that grew Gilead from a tiny upstart into a biotech behemoth. Sales of the HCV franchise appear to be stabilizing leading credence to 2018 is a “trough year” for Gilead. HIV sales continue to ramp thanks to strong uptake of Biktarvy. We are anxiously awaiting the data read from Filgotinib at year end. Executive Departures We were initially caught off-guard by CEO John Milligan’s decision to relinquish his … Read more

Valuentum’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Distribution

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The weighted average cost of capital is one of the most subjective measures in corporate finance, but it is also one of the most important ones. “The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates…If interest rates are destined to be at low levels…It makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield….Any investment is worth all the cash you’re going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back. The discounting back is affected by whether you choose interests rates like those of Japan or interest rates like those we had in 1982…When we had 15 percent short-term rates in 1982, it was silly to pay … Read more

Johnson & Johnson: Headline Risk But Business Solid

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We remain big fans of the steady hand displayed by the venerable Johnson & Johnson as the pharmaceutical bellwether continues to perform admirably. During its second-quarter results, we came away impressed with the continued strength in the Oncology division, which masks the deceleration in growth in Cardiovascular Disease. There continues to be headline risk with respect to talcum powder litigation, but J&J’s underlying business remains solid, in our view. By Alexander J. Poulos Examining J&J’s Franchise Strength We wrote up Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) second-quarter results July 19, “Johnson & Johnson Powers Ahead, Litigation Overhang Remains,” but we think a closer examination of the underlying trends of the three largest components of J&J’s pharma division will be helpful to readers. … Read more

AbbVie’s Outlook Remains Blurred

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Image Source: Global Panorama We remain bearish on the outlook for AbbVie as we do not believe the clinical pipeline will be able to adequately offset the loss of revenue when key product Humira loses patent protection beginning in October as a biosimilar enters the European market. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways AbbVie remains over-reliant on sales of Humira to drive top-line sales–a major red flag as the worldwide patent protection is about to lapse. Humira will lose patent protection in Europe, and thus in our view, we think we are about to witness peak Humira sales in 2018. We feel investors are over-estimating the productivity of the clinical pipeline, and while there is always a chance AbbVie may … Read more

What Are the Downside Risks of Gilead Sciences?

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We think the risk-reward at Gilead remains positively skewed in investors’ favor, but let’s examine the downside case for Gilead Sciences so there are no surprises. It’s always a good approach to evaluate where an investor may go wrong with an investment idea, and assessing upside and downside cases, as in a fair value range, remains par for the course. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways We wanted to highlight a few key points on what could go wrong on our bullish thesis on Gilead Sciences. We believe the HCV market is stabilizing with Gilead on track to meet its dramatically-reduced revenue forecast. Biktarvy–Gilead’s next-gen HIV product–is poised to steal significant market share. Yescarta, the recently-acquired CAR-T treatment, should generate … Read more

What Are the Qualities of Highly-Rated Stocks on the Valuentum Buying Index?

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If you were a CEO, what are the 7 most important metrics to focus on to get a rating of 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index? This is a great question because it hits at the absolute heart of the most important concept of investing. Investing may be about buying a great company with a solid and growing dividend, but it most certainly is about buying a great company at a discount to intrinsic value. The difference between what someone can pay for something and what something is worth is the most important concept of investing: price versus value. The price-versus-value component is an integral part of the Valuentum Buying Index. In fact, it is the first component. After all, … Read more

The Promise of CAR-T Therapy

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Image Source: Gilead The medical field, particularly the biotech industry, is quite innovative, and advances in medicine can help a specific target population with the ultimate gift–the gift of a better life. We’re excited by the stunning advances in the CAR-T field for the treatment for various forms of cancer that have, in the past, come with an often-bleak prognosis. We expect a shift in the advances in immune-oncology as the CAR-T revolution is in its early stages. Key Takeaways CAR-T therapy holds the potential to revolutionize how hematological cancer is treated. The biotech industry remains in the early stages of the revolution, but thus far the results have been promising. We believe Gilead Sciences is best poised to exploit … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).