FPI

How Some Members Use Valuentum’s Investment Services

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Thank you for your membership to Valuentum. We serve a wide variety of investors, including dividend growth investors, value investors, and pure Valuentum investors, among others. Many different types of investors and professionals use our research and financial analysis in a whole host of applications from individual stock-selection to the evaluation of closed-end funds to an overlay in a money-management setting and beyond. We wanted to make sure that you know that, if you’re a dividend growth or income investor, that there are others that use our website to utilize the Valuentum process, fair value estimates and other metrics. Similarly, if you’re a practitioner of the Valuentum system, I wanted to make sure that you are … Read more

ICYMI: Let’s Play Devil’s Advocate: What’s the Bear Case for Realty Income?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA We like Realty Income Corp. (O) a lot, but it’s not hard to see that the REIT could potentially have all the makings of a black swan. For one, the stock is loved by almost everyone–REIT investors, income investors, and dividend growth investors alike. Many are simply enamored by its monthly dividend, which it has raised nearly 120 times since it was listed on the NYSE in 1994. Over its 54-year history, the REIT has paid 632 consecutive monthly dividends, too. There’s a ton of things to like about Realty Income, but for this note, let’s build and examine the bear case, one that can be broken into three pillars: 1) its retail exposure, 2) its … Read more

Why Are the Dividends of REITs So Risky?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Not all REIT dividends are safe. Many REITs remain capital-market dependent, and some office REITs, retail REITs, and healthcare REITs may be difficult places to generate dependable long-term income in the coming decades, in our view. Office REIT SL Green (SLG) recently cut its payout 13% on December 5, 2022, while another office REIT Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) cut its dividend 29% on January 18, 2023. These are just two of the latest high-profile REIT dividend cuts, and there may be more to come. Contrary to popular opinion, the REIT sector has not been a great source of dependable, reliable income, particularly during the COVID-19 crisis. Five REITs cut their dividends in 2019: Medalist Diversified REIT … Read more

REITs May Continue to Face Pressure

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Image: The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. By Brian Nelson, CFA Times are tough for equity REITs (VNQ) and mortgage REITs (REM), with the VNQ and REM down 25% and 30%, respectively, so far in 2022. This is against a backdrop of Valuentum’s simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio that are doing far better. The lesson in 2022, … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 1

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 1. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week      ASE Technology (ASX): now $0.359 per share dividend, was $0.218. Bank OZK (OZK): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.31. Broadstone Net Lease (BNL): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.27. Ermenegildo Zegna (ZGN): now $0.09 per share dividend. Farmland Partners (FPI): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. First Bancorp (FNLC): now $0.34 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. General Mills (GIS): … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending June 5

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending June 6. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Agent Information Software (AIFS): now $0.03 per share dividend. Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE): now $1.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.03. CNOOC Limited (CEO): now $5.204 per share dividend, was $3.766. Diversified Royalty (BEVFF): now CAD 0.0167 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.0167. Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR): now $0.1556 per share monthly dividend, was $0.1517. UnitedHealth (UNH): now $1.25 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending August 10

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending August 10. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 2 Global (JCOM): now $0.425 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.415. Atlantica Yield (AY): now $0.34 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. Badger Meter (BMI): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.13. Barclays (BCS): now $0.1276 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.1095. Black Stone Minerals (BSM): now $0.3375 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.3125. Blue Hills Bancorp (BHBK): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more