FB

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

by

With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Another Great Day for Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holdings!

by

Image: The holdings in the Best Ideas Newsletter during the trading session November 5. We continue to pound the table on our best ideas. By Brian Nelson, CFA The votes keep coming in for the Presidential Election of 2020, and it is a very high probability that Democratic nominee Joe Biden will become the next President of the United States. We don’t expect incumbent Donald Trump to go down without a fight however, and while we anticipate a bunch of news headlines in the coming weeks about recounts in battleground states, accusations of voter fraud, and the like, we also expect a peaceful transition of power once the dust settles. With many news outlets projecting Joe Biden will win the key … Read more

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holdings Are Surging!

by

Image: The holdings in the Best Ideas Newsletter during the trading session November 4. We continue to pound the table on our best ideas. By Brian Nelson, CFA If you were like me, you stayed up as long as you could last night watching the U.S. election coverage before it became too difficult to keep your eyes open. When I went to sleep, it seemed as though Donald Trump would be re-elected. The only state that appeared to flip to the Democrats from the 2016 election was Arizona, meaning Trump would still retain greater than the 270 electoral votes required to gain re-election. Well, that was last night, and this is today. As more and more votes came in last … Read more

Earnings Brief: Facebook and Alphabet

by

Image: Facebook (orange) and Alphabet (blue) have advanced 26% and 20%, respectively, thus far in 2020 versus roughly flat performance of the S&P 500. We continue to like both names as the highest-weighted constituents in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re not making any changes to our fair value estimates of Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOG) following their respective third-quarter reports, released October 29. Both Facebook and Alphabet are the highest-weighted positions in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and they have been for some time now. Collectively 26% of the newsletter portfolio at the high end of their respective weighting ranges, shares of Facebook and Alphabet have advanced more than 20% this year, while the S&P … Read more

News Brief: We Like Large Cap Growth, Big Cap Tech, and the NASDAQ

by

Image: Since 2010, a large cap growth ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 150 percentage points (15,000 basis points). Since 2010, a large cap growth ETF has outperformed a small cap value ETF by over 275 percentage points, or 27,500 basis points (image not shown). We expect continued outperformance from companies within the large cap growth bucket. By Brian Nelson, CFA The markets have been see-sawing the past couple weeks as the global economy continues to recover and much of the world awaits the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential election. We think the equity markets have largely factored in the forecasted epidemiology curve with respect to COVID-19, including infection spikes across the world, so recent market volatility … Read more

We’re Still Huge Fans of Microsoft

by

Image Shown: A snapshot of Microsoft Corporation’s first quarter fiscal 2021 performance. We continue to be huge fans of the cash-rich tech giant. Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – First Quarter Fiscal 2021 IR PowerPoint Presentation By Callum Turcan On October 27, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended September 30, 2020) that blew past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Its GAAP revenues were up 12% year-over-year, hitting $37.2 billion, while its GAAP diluted EPS jumped 32% higher on a year-over-year basis, hitting $1.82 last fiscal quarter. Leading the charge was Microsoft’s cloud-computing Azure segment, which reported 48% year-over-year sales growth, and its Dynamics 365 segment (includes offerings that meet enterprise resource planning and customer relationship … Read more

News Brief: Stay at Home Stocks, REITs, Housing, Oracle, and AT&T

by

Image: Number of COVID-19 cases reported weekly by WHO Region, and global deaths, 30 December 2019 through 18 October 2020. Source: WHO. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage on, though the healthcare community has become more adept at reducing the incidence of death given the many treatments now available to battle the disease. We continue to stay the course with the newsletter portfolios. Many of our favorites include Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet, and PayPal, among other moaty, net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouses tied to secular growth trends. Our focus remains on the long haul. The business models of many stay-at-home stocks are solid as they continue to reap the rewards of the accelerated trends of home office use and e-commerce proliferation. … Read more

Great Day in the Markets!

by

Image: The Invesco QQQ Trust, an exchange-traded fund based on the NASDAQ 100 index, had a great day during the trading session October 12, as it leads all major indexes on the year.  — By Brian Nelson, CFA — First of all, a warm welcome to our new members. We recently posted a website overview video on our website here, and please be sure to view our stock report walk-through . At Valuentum, we’re financial publishers, so please be sure to read through how many members use our services here. — The trading session October 12 was a sight to see. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.88%, the S&P 500 jumped 1.64%, while the NASDAQ powered ahead an incredible 2.56%. As many of our … Read more

The Resilience of the US Digital Advertising Market and Alphabet

by

Image Shown: Shares of Alphabet Inc Class C shares, a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, have performed very well over the past year. Going forward, we see room for significant capital appreciation upside as the digital advertising market has proven to be very resilient of late. By Callum Turcan To ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, we continue to prefer large-cap tech companies with pristine balance sheets, strong cash flow profiles, and promising long-term growth outlooks. Ideally, we are searching for companies with outlooks that are supported by secular growth tailwinds, allowing for several winners in their respective end markets. Digital advertising is a prime example of a resilient high-quality market that is supported by secular … Read more

Facebook’s Promising Growth Outlook

by

Image Shown: Top-weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook Inc has seen its stock price surge higher over the past year and we see room for considerably more capital appreciation upside. Facebook’s growth trajectory will depend in large part on how effective the firm is at generating more revenue per active user, especially in markets outside of the US & Canada. The emergence of a large global middle class should assist in these endeavors. We view Facebook’s growth outlook quite favorably and continue to be big fans of the social media giant. By Callum Turcan Facebook Inc (FB) continues to be one of our favorite companies out there. Shares of Facebook are included as a top-weighted holding in our Best … Read more