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Inflation! How to Think About Value Duration

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Investors continue to focus on the prospects of rising inflation expectations, which are impacting Treasury bond yields. The 10-year Treasury note, which is used as the foundation for discount rates within most valuation constructs, now stands at ~1.61%, up meaningfully from the ~0.5% lows set in early August 2020. The Fed/Treasury continue to be highly accommodative, and the growing market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is adding even more “new money” to the system. Investors continue to discount the longer-duration free cash flow profiles of the most speculative technology companies more aggressively. For example, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which is full of speculative tech names, has fallen to ~$105 per share from a 52-week high of $159.70 … Read more

Best Idea Facebook Posts Blowout Earnings Report

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Image Shown: Facebook Inc’s digital advertising business is a behemoth and enabled the firm to put up banner first quarter 2021 performance. We continue to be enormous fans of Facebook and include shares of FB as a top-weighted idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Facebook Inc – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan We continue to view Facebook Inc (FB) as one of the most attractive capital appreciation opportunities out there as shares of FB, as of this writing, are trading at a steep discount to their intrinsic value on the basis of enterprise cash flow analysis. Our fair value estimate for Facebook sits at $413 per share with room for upside as … Read more

In the News: Facebook Optimistic, Visa Resilient, Dollar General’s Outlook Not Bad and More

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By Brian Nelson, CFA As the world continues to heal from the coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the pace of news has not slowed. The S&P 500 (SPY) is now trading above/near the high end of our fair value estimate range, so we expect some profit taking to ensue in the coming months. The Reddit and meme-stock short-squeezes (with GameStop (GME) as their poster child) have only raised awareness of the hazards and systemic risks of price-agnostic trading and its potential impact on market health. Democrats have called on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to regulate the “gamification” of investing apps, and we hope that such regulation and oversight eventually advances to other questionable areas, including variants of quant and index … Read more

Apple, Facebook, and Tesla Report Earnings

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Image Shown: Facebook Inc continues to steadily grow its active user base, primarily by leveraging and expanding its international presence. Image Source: Facebook Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan In alphabetical order by ticker: AAPL, FB, TSLA We continue to witness unusual trading activity in the markets driven in large part by investors that are apparently communicating with each other over online forums such as Reddit. This trading activity is then being exacerbated by quantitative trend and momentum funds, generating levels of volatility in some names never before seen. On January 27 (link here), we sent out an alert to members noting that we shifted our newsletter portfolios to a 10%-20% cash weighting. Should … Read more

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios

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January 27, 2021 ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios We are raising the cash position in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. You can read the 2020 recap here. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we’re raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially … Read more

ALERT: We’re Still Bullish! Some Portfolio Tweaks

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everybody: Trust you’re doing great, and hope you are enjoying your membership to Valuentum! We’ve received a number of questions from members during the past several weeks, and we’d like to address them briefly in this note. We will write a follow-up note in the coming days that goes into our broader outlook for 2021 and beyond. However, we want to get these takeaways to you as soon as possible, as our inboxes have been overflowing. For starters, if you haven’t read our market/analysis recap for the year 2020, please do so, “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten.” Now on to the questions. First question: Is the stock market in a bubble? Answer: Absolutely not. We … Read more

Congress Seeks to Strike a Deal

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Image Shown: The S&P 500 (SPY) is trading near all-time highs as of December 16, but political risk could cause some choppiness in the near term. The potential for yet another government shutdown is upon us, but according to key leaders on both sides of the aisle, a deal appears to be within reach. Certain provisions may be left out in order to reach an accord sooner rather than later, however. In any case, we remain bullish long term, as the world continues to work to put the COVID-19 pandemic behind it. By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA Funding for most US federal government agencies may run out by the end of this week if both sides of the … Read more

FTC Attacks Facebook, Win-Win Scenario for Investors

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Image Shown: Facebook Inc has a large digital advertising business with global reach, but it does not have a monopoly on digital advertising or social media by any means. Image Source: Facebook Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation Summary Facebook is being sued by the FTC for allegedly engaging in monopolistic activities via its acquisition program. It’s important to note that the government is not seizing Facebook’s assets and that Facebook investors own the future free cash flow stream of the entire entity under any and every scenario–whether Facebook is retained in current form or whether it is broken into different parts through a potential IPO/spin-off of its Instagram and WhatsApp properties.  Under a status quo scenario, … Read more

Alphabet Continues to Move Higher, Supported By Its Promising Long-Term Growth Runway

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Image Shown: Alphabet Inc Class C shares have surged higher year-to-date as of this writing. We see room for additional capital appreciation upside. By Callum Turcan Alphabet Inc (GOOG) (GOOGL) is one of our favorite companies, and we include Alphabet Class C shares as a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Shares of GOOG have staged an impressive recovery since March 2020, when the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sent equity markets spiraling lower, and we still see room for significant capital appreciation upside. Under our “base” case scenario, Alphabet Class C shares have a fair value estimate of $2,493 per share, well above where GOOG is trading at as of this writing. The summary valuation assumptions used in our … Read more

This Stock Just Registered a Rare (Perfect) 10 on the VBI!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — At Valuentum, we like to look at companies from a number of different perspectives. The Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) combines rigorous financial and valuation analysis with an evaluation of a stock’s technicals to derive a rating between 1 and 10 for each company. The VBI places considerable emphasis on a company’s discounted cash-flow (DCF) valuation, its relative (behavioral) valuation versus peers (both forward PE and PEG ratios), and its technicals in order to help readers assess entry and exit points on the most interesting ideas. — Let’s follow the red line on the flow chart above to see how a company can score a 10, the best mark on the index (a “Top Pick”). First, the … Read more