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Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

Trump Targets China with Tariffs

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Image: Shanghai, China (December 2016), Andrey Filippov Stock markets in the US are slowly building in the prospect of retaliation (a “trade war”) from China, as a result of President Trump’s new tariffs. We maintain our view that the stock market has been frothy for some time, and the recent volatility may just be the beginning of a reversion to normalized valuations, with or without concerns about global trade. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market may be using concerns about a “trade war” as a reason to sell overpriced stock. According to Factset, as of March 16, the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is still over 17 times, one turn more than the 5-year average and nearly … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Protectionists Gaining Control, Implications on Europe and China

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It looks like the US-imposed tariffs are moving forward, and we’re starting to hear chatter about retaliation from Europe. Canada and Mexico may be exempt from the tariffs, however. By Kris Rosemann Mr. Market reacted unfavorably to President Trump’s top economic advisor Gary Cohn’s resignation announcement March 7, as Cohn was seen as a voice for Wall Street in the White House. Though the reaction may be short-lived, fears of the implications of increasing control from protectionists probably shouldn’t be ignored, and the probability of a trade war, particularly with China (FXI, MCHI) and with Europe, presumably moves higher with Cohn’s exit. Canada (EWC) and Mexico (EWW) may be exempt from the tariffs, however. The European Union is already reportedly … Read more

Trump’s Tariffs Ignite Concerns about Protectionism, Rising Input Costs

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Image Source: Michael Vadon President Trump is making true on his promises to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries. Input costs may move higher for many global industrials, and the long-term implications of protectionist policy will be tested. We’re not expecting retaliation, but we can’t rule it out either. Rising rates remain our primary concern. Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA If rising interest rates aren’t enough to give the market heartburn, President Trump announced March 1 that he will impose tariffs on the importation of steel and aluminum to the tune of 25% and 10%, respectively, citing national security concerns. Steel and aluminum stocks rallied hard on the news, but it left many of its industrial brethren under … Read more

Newsletter Portfolio Idea GM Powers Higher, Markets Calm Down…a Bit

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The US markets still faced quite a bit of volatility during the trading session February 6, but it wasn’t anything compared to the bloodbath from Groundhog Day and the subsequent Monday. We can only hope that the worst has passed, but it probably hasn’t. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA After overnight fears February 5/6 of a significant drop at the stock-market open–the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) had been indicated down as much as 1,000 points at one point–stocks jumped between positive and negative during the trading session February 6, and the last 24-48 hours have seen more than its fair share of volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose above 50 for the first time since August … Read more

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Why Won’t GM Break Out Already?

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What is it going to take for General Motors to catapult to new heights? By Brian Nelson, CFA August was a busy month for the auto makers. Following General Motors’ (GM) fantastic second-quarter results in late July, we thought shares of the auto giant would have surged higher, but they have been stuck in neutral, despite what we consider to be a very, very attractive valuation and an equally attractive dividend yield. Read why we think “General Motors May Offer an Incredible Opportunity (July 2017).” Where Tesla (TSLA) and Ferrari (RACE) are trading at rather high valuation multiples, poor GM can’t even get a double-digit multiple on current-year earnings, despite what we consider to be a solid balance sheet. What … Read more