ERX

Has the Stock Market Crash Begun?

by

Image: CDC. Transmission electron microscopic image of an isolate from the first U.S. case of COVID-19, formerly known as 2019-nCoV. The spherical viral particles, colorized blue, contain cross-section through the viral genome, seen as black dots. Dear members: This article is our fourth update on COVID-19. The previous three installments can be found here (Feb 22), here (Feb 7) and here (Jan 31). We trust you and yours are well during this global crisis. It’s hard to turn on the television these days without hearing about COVID-19, a novel coronavirus and respiratory illness that continues to spread from person to person around the world. COVID-19 is deadly, and particularly deadly among those 60 years of age and older and those … Read more

ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

by

Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

by

Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

by

Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Energy Earnings Roundup

by

Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – First quarter 2019 earnings presentation By Callum Turcan Energy earnings season is upon us and several major oil & gas companies have just reported their first quarter results. Global crude pricing benchmarks tanked during the last three months of 2018 and only partially recovered during the first three months of 2019, which depressed upstream raw energy resource realizations for those with a large liquids production base (meaning those that produce more natural gas liquids, crude oil, and condensate than “dry” natural gas). Chevron Corporation (CVX): The energy giant posted EPS of $1.39 during the first quarter, down from $1.90 in the same period last year. Weaker realized raw energy resource prices offset a 7% … Read more

Chevron Joins the Ranks of Exxon Mobil and Shell After Buying Anadarko

by

Image Source: Chevron Corporation – IR presentation Chevron is buying Anadarko. Chevron will have to show that the projected operational synergies and related capital intensity reductions actually materialize through this acquisition, as execution risk is very material in the oil & gas world. We will be monitoring the industry as further consolidation is possible with interest rates remaining low for the time being and in light of oil prices moving sharply higher since January. By Callum Turcan Energy stocks moved upwards last Friday, April 12, on the news that Chevron Corporation (CVX) is purchasing Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) for $33.0 billion in a cash and stock deal, for a total enterprise value of $50.0 billion when taking debt into consideration. … Read more

Three Upstream Companies Contend with the Shale Treadmill

by

Image Source: Marathon Oil Corporation — Fourth-quarter IR presentation. Global oil prices are climbing back up again and that got us thinking about three of the biggest independent upstream players in America’s shale patch. By Callum Turcan Global oil prices are rising and that has gotten us thinking about upstream players EOG Resources Inc (EOG), Noble Energy Inc (NBL), and Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO). All three of these companies possess domestic and international producing operations, with unconventional upstream opportunities in America providing a key growth generator as market conditions allow. Stronger realizations will lead to improving financial performance on a sequential basis, but ultimately, valuations are based on price expectations over decades not quarters. This generally makes valuing upstream firms … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

by

This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

by

During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

ETF Analysis: Energy

by

Please select the image below to download the report.