CSCO

Cisco Raises Fiscal 2025 Guidance

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Image: Cisco’s shares have been choppy the past couple years. By Brian Nelson, CFA Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported better than expected fiscal first quarter 2025 results on November 13. Revenue of $13.8 billion came in at the high end of its guidance range, down 6% but above consensus by $70 million, while non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.91 came in above its guidance range, beating the consensus forecast by $0.04. Product orders were up 20% year-over-year and up 9% excluding the recent acquisition of Splunk. Subscription revenue now accounts for 57% of its total revenue. Management had the following to say about the quarter: Cisco is off to a strong start to fiscal 2025. Our customers are investing in critical … Read more

Brain Teaser – Reflexive versus Reflective

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Dear members: — Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal, wrote in his pioneering text, Your Money and Your Brain, a few fun examples of how sometimes the psychological process of anchoring and adjustment can trip us up. — In one notable example, Zweig wrote about how two psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman had asked volunteers to spin a wheel of fortune numbered from 0 to 100. The contestants didn’t know that the wheel was rigged to produce either a 10 or a 65 for the experiment. — After spinning the wheel, the contestants were then asked whether the percentage of total United Nations membership made up of countries in Africa was higher or lower than the number that came up. … Read more

Cisco’s Fiscal Fourth Quarter Results Exceed Expectations

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Image Source: Cisco By Brian Nelson, CFA On August 14, Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported better than expected fiscal fourth quarter results with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in higher than the consensus forecasts. Revenue fell 10% on a year-over-year basis, while non-GAAP earnings per share dropped 24% from the same period last year. Fiscal fourth quarter non-GAAP gross margin was 67.9%, and the company now has total annualized recurring revenue of $29.6 billion, up 22% year-over-year inclusive of its acquisition of Splunk. The company’s product order growth was 14% in the quarter. Management’s commentary in the press release was positive: We delivered a strong close to fiscal 2024. In our fourth quarter, we saw steady customer demand … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

Cisco Still Looks Cheap, Shares Yield ~3.2%

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Image Source: Cisco By Brian Nelson, CFA On May 15, Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported better than feared third quarter results for its fiscal 2024. Revenue faced pressure, falling 13% on a year-over-year basis, as management noted that customers continue to implement “products on-hand.” Non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.88 beat consensus. Management spoke of a dynamic market environment, while mentioning some stabilization of demand: We delivered a solid Q3 performance in what remains a dynamic environment. Our unique ability to bring together networking, security, observability, and data enables Cisco to offer our customers unrivaled digital resilience for the AI era. Revenue, gross margin and non-GAAP EPS in Q3 were at the high end or above our guidance range, both including … Read more

Merger Mania

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Image Source: Glenn Beltz By Brian Nelson, CFA Mergers and acquisition [M&A] activity continues as the market sets new highs. Elevated borrowing costs as a result of the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking cycle in 2022 are pushing many entities to pursue all-stock transactions. We’ve previously discussed our thoughts on the Cisco (CSCO)/Splunk (SPLK) tie-up in this article here, which was an all-cash deal, but several other rather large acquisitions have been announced that are worth bringing to members attention. On February 19, Capital One (COF) announced that it would acquire Discover Financial (DFS) in an all-stock $35.3 billion deal that would represent a 26.6% premium over Discover’s price as of February 16. The deal is expected to generate $2.7 billion … Read more

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?

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Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key … Read more

Cisco Looks Cheap at 13x Forward Non-GAAP Earnings But Fundamentals Are Deteriorating

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Image: Cisco has ratcheted down expectations during the past couple quarters, and its shares have been choppy for the better part of a year now. By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 14, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) reported mixed second-quarter fiscal 2024 results that showed beats on both the top and bottom lines compared to previously lowered expectations, but overall lower revenue growth and weaker cash flow trends. The company is experiencing slow demand for networking equipment as it continues to work toward completion of its deal for cybersecurity firm Splunk. Though we didn’t like Cisco’s revised outlook for fiscal 2024, the firm is trading at just ~13x forward non-GAAP earnings per share. Cisco increased its dividend payout modestly and currently … Read more

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024

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By Brian Nelson, CFA 1. The Fed has signaled that rate cuts could start with inflation at a 2 handle (2 point something) and not at exactly 2.0%. That means that the Fed may become anticipatory to prevent overshooting to the downside with inflation. We see this as positive for long-duration equities, particularly those whose free cash flow generation is robust in the out-years, inclusive of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth. 2. Unemployment is at structural lows of 3.7%. Employers are working hard to keep talent on board, and with each paycheck, employees are pumping more and more money into the stock market via retirement accounts. This tailwind remains a stiff one and will … Read more

Cisco Puts Up Record Q1 FY 2024 Results, Outlook Hindered By Order Slowdown

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Image Source: Cisco By Brian Nelson, CFA On November 15, Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported strong first quarter results for its fiscal 2024, but the company surprisingly lowered its outlook for the remainder of its fiscal year on a slowdown in new orders. We’re not rushing to judgement of the company, but the revision was rather sizable, and we’ll be taking a close look at our valuation model following the report. We continue to be fans of Cisco’s intent to purchase Splunk, and there may have been some hiccups in the sales cycle as the firm works to close this strategic deal. For now, we’re giving the firm the benefit of the doubt that things will improve in the back half … Read more