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ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Chevron’s Promising Cash Flow Growth Outlook

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Image Source: Chevron Corporation – May 2021 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan The outlook for the global energy complex is bright and getting brighter as public health authorities utilize widespread coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) vaccine distribution efforts to put an end to the pandemic. We added shares of Chevron Corporation (CVX) to the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios on June 27 (link here) in order to gain exposure to the ongoing recovery in the global energy complex via a high-quality integrated oil major. Shares of CVX yield ~5.1% as of this writing. Asset Overview Chevron’s collection of upstream assets (involved in the extraction of raw energy resources from the ground) includes operations all over the world with some notable … Read more

Newsletter Portfolio Idea Chevron Focused on Returning Cash to Shareholders

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Image Shown: Newsletter portfolio idea Chevron Corporation is very shareholder friendly. We view its capital allocation priorities quite favorably. Image Source: Chevron Corporation – May 2022 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Our newsletter portfolios remain overweight energy names as these companies are well-positioned to ride out inflationary pressures and geopolitical turbulence while generating substantial free cash flows and returning “gobs” of cash to shareholders. We include Chevron Corporation (CVX) in our Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolios as the firm has placed a great emphasis on keeping its capital expenditures contained, improving its cost structure, and cutting down on its debt load while returning “gobs” of cash to shareholders. Financial Overview At the end … Read more

ExxonMobil’s Great Earnings Report and Promising Growth Outlook

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Image Shown: An overview of ExxonMobil Corporation’s strategy to generate shareholder value going forward. Image Source: ExxonMobil Corporation – Second Quarter of 2021 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan We added shares of ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) as an idea to both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios back on June 27 (link here) to gain greater exposure to the ongoing recovery in the global energy complex. On a day-to-day, month-to-month basis, raw energy resources pricing (crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids) will bounce around (commodity prices are inherently volatile). However, what we have been interested in the most is the sharp recovery seen in raw energy resources pricing since the start of 2021. That includes … Read more

Chevron Investing in Biofuels and Hydrogen

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Image Source: Chevron Corporation – August 2021 IR Presentation On June 27, 2021 (link here), we added Chevron Corporation (CVX) as an idea to both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We are huge fans of the energy giant’s capital appreciation potential, with our fair value estimate standing at $115 per share of CVX, well above where Chevron is trading at as of this writing. Additionally, we are huge fans of Chevron’s dividend growth potential in the wake of the recovery seen in raw energy resources pricing year-to-date. Shares of CVX yield ~5.6% as of this writing, and we expect Chevron will steadily grow its payout going forward, aided by its promising free cash flow growth trajectory. … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 28

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 28. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          AMG Advanced Metallurgical (AMVMF): now EUR 0.40 per share interim dividend, was EUR 0.30. Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): now $0.43 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Archrock (AROC): now $0.155 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.150. Baker Hughes (BKR): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. Boise Cascade (BCC): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company PFD CONV 2 … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

Energy Sector In Shambles, Looks to Recover But Headwinds Persist

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Image Source: ConocoPhillips – November 2019 Analyst and Investor Meeting IR Presentation Executive Summary: Though raw energy resource pricing is on the rebound, the outlook for the oil and gas industry remains stressed. Global demand for oil and related refined petroleum products remains subdued due to headwinds generated by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The OPEC+ oil cartel has responded by pledging to keep a significant amount of oil output off the market for an extended time. However, raw energy resource prices need to go much higher and be sustained at elevated levels before the space could become attractive from a longer-term perspective. In our view, the US upstream industry (specifically those in the shale patch) need WTI to move … Read more

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

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Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more