AZN

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Firms Leaving United States for More Reasonable Tax Rates Elsewhere

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Considering Walgreen’s (WAG) and its plans to move to Switzerland, Pfizer’s (PFE) failed bid for UK-based AstraZeneca (AZN), and now Medtronic’s (MDT) acquisition of Ireland-based Covidien (COV), it’s very clear to us that many US-based companies want to escape the tax burden of the US. We have no interest in generating a political stance for or against tax inversion (i.e. re-incorporating overseas to reduce taxes), but Dividend Growth portfolio holding Medtronic is the latest to pursue such a strategy. The medical technology firm announced June 15 that it will acquire Covidien in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at ~$93 per share. According to the terms of the transaction, each outstanding ordinary share of Covidien will be converted into the right to … Read more

Merger Mania: AT&T Ties the Knot with DirecTV; Pfizer Ups Offer for AstraZeneca; Siemens Complicates Matters for GE

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Over the weekend, AT&T (T) and DirecTV (DTV) entered into a definitive agreement  in which AT&T will acquire DirecTV in a cash-and-stock transaction for $95 per share on the basis of AT&T’s Friday closing price. In light of this announcement, we plan to remove DirecTV from the Best Ideas portfolio early next week, recording a significant gain from the $55 per share cost basis in the portfolio. We trust you are very happy with this news. Though some investors will choose to hang onto shares in the event that AT&T’s equity increases before DirecTV is de-listed from the exchange (thereby driving DirecTV’s shares higher), we’re comfortable taking the hefty per-share profit on the pay-TV provider very soon and not waiting … Read more

Teva Pharma: Underpriced and Misunderstood

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One of the key benefits of using a discounted cash-flow model is that it allows the user to adequately price a variety of businesses, irrespective of where they are in the economic or product cycle or whether they are engaged in a turnaround or reaching peak levels of operating performance. Unlike a forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio or even a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, where near-term performance can cause mis-valuations at times, the DCF allows the user to forecast fundamentals through the course of the business cycle or through the course of the product cycle in order to arrive at mid-cycle profit projections, which remain critical within the framework of intrinsic value estimation. Though Big Pharma continues to steal headlines via Pfizer’s … Read more

Big News in Big Pharma

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Pfizer Held Talks to Acquire AstraZeneca “Pfizer Inc. (PFE), the world’s biggest drugmaker, held informal, now-discontinued talks with AstraZeneca Plc (AZN) about buying the London-based maker of asthma and heart drugs, said two people familiar with the matter… …The companies aren’t currently negotiating, said the people, who asked not to be identified. One said the talks happened several months ago and there are no plans to resume. The discussions were first reported yesterday by London’s Sunday Times, whose unnamed bank and industry sources said New York-based Pfizer made a tentative approach about a takeover valuing AstraZeneca at more than 60 billion pounds ($101 billion).” (Source: Bloomberg) To continue reading >> Valeant and Activist Investor Bill Ackman Pursue Allergan “Canada’s Valeant … Read more

Surveying Fourth Quarter Earnings at Health Care Firms

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The broader equity markets have been under pressure for much of January, and while it may be tempting to consider completely exiting stock investing for a time, we’re staying the course with both of our actively-managed portfolios. We had been expecting a contraction in price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples across the broader market (see our outlook here), and the performance thus far in 2014 has not been surprising. In case you may have missed it, I sent out some very important thoughts over the weekend to keep in mind as uncertainty and volatility increase through the course of 2014: Stay focused on @Valuentum portfolio holdings (best ideas), #asset allocation (cash) in portfolios and #prudence in allocating new capital. — Brian Nelson, CFA … Read more

Eli Lilly Might Have a Blockbuster Cancer Drug

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Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly (click ticker for report: ) saw its shares pop during Tuesday’s trading session after revealing positive data about one of the lung cancer drugs in its oncological pipeline. The company issued a press release on the treatment (necitumumab), saying: “SQUIRE, a recently completed Phase III study, met its primary endpoint, finding that patients with stage IV metastatic squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) experienced increased overall survival (OS) when administered necitumumab (IMC-11F8) in combination with gemcitabine and cisplatin as a first-line treatment, as compared to chemotherapy alone.” While some have brushed off the news, this is very positive data for Eli Lilly. For one, the treatment met its primary endpoint, implying the efficacy of the drug … Read more

Inside AbbVie: A Look at a New Pharmaceutical Giant

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On January 1, medical giant Abbott (click ticker for report: ) will start trading as two firms, Abbott and AbbVie. The companies will form two distinct, publicly-traded businesses, allowing the market to value each company separately and uniquely. Pharmaceuticals will be housed in AbbVie, while medical diagnostics, baby food, and generic drugs will remain a part of Abbott. Let’s first dig into AbbVie. We’ll have a follow up article on the new Abbott in coming days. AbbVie Led by Humira Headlining the new pharmaceuticals business is the blockbuster drug Humira, which had over $7.9 billion in sales in 2011 alone. Though originally approved for rheumatoid arthritis in 2003, the drug has been approved to treat Crohn’s disease, plaque psoriasis, ulcerative … Read more

AstraZeneca Is Not Immune to Patent Cliff

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On Thursday, AstraZeneca (click ticker for report: ) posted difficult third-quarter results as the loss of exclusivity on several brands (namely Seroquel IR) and a couple divestitures drove revenue 15% lower. Core earnings per share declined 8%, while reported earnings per share dropped 50%. Still, management reiterated its full-year 2012 financial targets for earnings per share between $6.00 and $6.30 per share, and we don’t expect to make a material change to our fair value estimate at this time. The headline numbers were poor. US revenues dropped 19% in the third quarter, as a result of the loss of exclusivity of Seroquel IR, while revenue in the rest of the world (ROW) fell 12% during the period. The company noted … Read more