AXP

Visa Reports Earnings and Mildly Adjusts Guidance

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Image Shown: Shares of top weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio Visa Inc continues to outperform the S&P 500. By Callum Turcan On January 30, Visa Inc (V) reported earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2020 (period ended December 31, 2019). While shares sold off on the news, V has since recovered some lost ground and it’s important to keep in mind Visa is up ~42% over the past year as of this writing while the S&P 500 (SPY) was up just ~19% during this period. We continue to like Visa as a top weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and given the combination of the firm’s strong long-term technical and fundamental performance (on … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds

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Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception. Though the book focuses more on the life and times of founder Jim Simons and dedicated only a page or two to the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), another quant fund that went belly-up during the late 1990s, it was nonetheless a thoroughly interesting and enjoyable read. But why I am bringing up one of the most successful quant … Read more

5 Things We Learned in 2019

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5 Things We Learned in 2019      “The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it.” — George Orwell By Brian Nelson, CFA    I’m looking at the beautiful Smoky Mountains in Tennessee as I’m writing this piece. I hope that you and yours are having a wonderful holiday season with family and friends. I wanted to share with you a few things that I think investors learned during 2019. Before I do, however, you’re probably wondering why I decided to lead in with this particular quote from Orwell. — — The quote, in some ways, is a reflection of how I think many approach truth in finance. Maybe they don’t … Read more

Economic Commentary: Marks, Dalio, and the Discount Rate

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Image Source: Mike Cohen We sat down with the Valuentum team to discuss their latest thoughts on recent economic developments. To kick off the conversation, let’s start with the team’s views on the latest memo from Oaktree’s Howard Marks: Mysterious. For those that don’t know Howard, he is the Director and Co-Chairman of Oaktree, which managed about $122 billion in AUM, as of September 2019. The memo goes into depth on the reasons for negative interest rates, the impact of negative interest rates, and opines on whether the US will ever see negative interest rates. Then, we’ll go from there! Brian Nelson: The concept of negative interest rates is not merely academic, but they have far-reaching implications across the global … Read more

Economic Commentary: Robots, Value Trap, and Politics on the Markets

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Tickerized for stocks in the DIA. Valuentum sat down for the latest installment of its periodic economic commentary, and the team tackled a wide array of topics, from robots on Wall Street, to President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s new book Value Trap, to political influence on the markets and boyond. Let’s set the stage with a prompt from a recent Bloomberg article, “The Master of Robots…Coming for Wall Street:” “The problem is, computer-powered strategies are struggling to live up to the hype, with a Eurekahedge index of AI hedge funds lagging peers in recent years. That spells opportunity for the likes of Lopez de Prado with his outfit True Positive Technologies — a dig at the erroneous conclusions derived … Read more

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

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Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

Economic Commentary: Apple $225+, Brokers Tumble, Auto Sales Look Tired

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“Though all signs point to increased volatility, we maintain our view that we’re well-positioned in the newsletter portfolios, and the ideas highlighted in the Exclusive publication consider the backdrop economic conditions we closely monitor.” — Brian Nelson, CFA There has been plenty of news in the markets this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) experiencing significant declines only to bounce back a bit. From where we stand, the markets look vulnerable technically, but that doesn’t mean we’re looking to change anything in the newsletter portfolios. We have some dry powder in the form of a ~10% cash weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The disappointing September ADP jobs report added to lower-than-expected ISM (Institute … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 27

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 27. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week American Express (AXP): now $0.43 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.39. American Tower (AMT): now $0.95 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.92. Artesian Resources (ARTNA): now $0.2496 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2459. BancFirst (BANF): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. City Holding (CHCO): now $0.57 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.53. CSB Bancorp (CSBB): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. DENTSPLY … Read more

Economic Roundtable: “Value” Versus “Growth” Rotation

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Tickerized for the DIA. “This kind of trading activity could be setting the stage for a big quant fund blow up, if the kind of leverage it takes to move the markets to this magnitude was applied. All it may take is for the B/M “value” factor to continue to suffer in the coming 12-18 months–it’s possible we could see a few quant firms go belly up. My guess is that market participants are paying very close attention to this activity, and if they “smell blood,” things could get ugly.” – Brian Nelson, CFA Earlier this week, the markets experienced significant internal “rotation,” as cyclicals and “value” stocks materially outperformed their defensive and “growth” counterparts, all the while the broader … Read more