ARLP

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

Dividends, Dividends, Dividends

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Valuentum’s President of Equity Research Brian Nelson shares three unique insights on dividends not commonly discussed among investors. The transcript of the video can be found in this article. Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I wanted to share with you three insights on dividends that I don’t think are talked about enough in today’s dividend growth investing handbook. The first is the idea that the dividend is a symptom of a company’s strength so the key driver behind a firm’s valuation is its free cash flows, and the dividend is a symptom of the company being able to continue to generate those free cash flows and to pay a portion of those cash flows to … Read more

Something New!

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Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you’ll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you’ll see this table in our work going forward. We just wanted to let you know. We appreciate your membership very much!   ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.                          — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 At Valuentum, we take Buffett’s thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of … Read more

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!

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In no particular order — the five winners… As a Chief Investment Strategist that oversees a significant amount of assets, it is vital to have unbiased research that we can lean on for decision making. Brian and the Valuentum team help provide a disciplined and fundamental approach to stock analysis without the typical Wall Street bias or conflicts of interest. The value we get on a monthly basis for having this detailed thought analysis and wise long-term thinking greatly outweighs the cost. We are very happy to have them on our short list of management we trust.  – Stephen H. (October 2022) —– I’d like you to know what my takeaways are from your research: 1) Be wary of capital … Read more

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!

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Hi everyone: — We’re excited to say that we’re adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. — Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. — With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com. — You’ll notice that we’ve also tightened our focus at Valuentum during the past 12-24 months in advance of what has certainly become a more difficult 2022 than even some … Read more

Update: Analyzing Valuentum’s Economic Castle Index: A Walk Forward Case Study

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This article was originally published February 20, 2020. By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA In , the Valuentum team published a paper called The Castle Trumps the Moat which sought to change the conversation around Warren Buffett’s very popular phrase “economic moat” towards one with a more quantitative grounding. The idea behind an economic moat is that companies with such a qualitative attribute should generate stronger returns than those that don’t, at least so the thinking goes, given the ability for these firms to generate competitive advantages for themselves in their respective fields (allowing for these firms to charge relatively higher prices and/or incur lower expenses, resulting in larger profit streams than “non-moaty” companies). There are two things generally … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline

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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline — — In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He’ll talk about which companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he’s avoiding. This and more in Valuentum’s 2020 Exclusive conference call.   Note: This video was originally published August 2, 2020.    To watch the video >>   The Theory of Universal Valuation —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, … Read more

ConocoPhillips Is Buying Concho Resources

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Image Shown: An overview of the pro forma asset base of ConocoPhillips and Concho Resources Inc. Please note that Concho Resources’ main operations are in the Permian Basin in West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico, a region that ConocoPhillips seeks to grow its exposure to. ConocoPhillips has an expansive upstream portfolio with operations worldwide, though its North American position is set to become a much larger part of its company-wide profile. Image Source: ConocoPhillips – ConocoPhillips & Concho Resources Transaction Announcement IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On October 19, ConocoPhillips (COP) announced it was acquiring Concho Resources Inc (CXO) through an all-stock deal. If the deal goes through as planned, each share of CXO will be exchanged for 1.46 shares … Read more

Our Thoughts on the Potential Acquisition of Concho Resources by ConocoPhillips

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Image Source: ConocoPhillips – November 2019 Annual & Investor Meeting Presentation By Callum Turcan According to Bloomberg, the super-independent ConocoPhillips (COP) is currently talking with Concho Resources Inc (CXO) about acquiring the company. We do not expect that such a deal will come with a significant premium, and furthermore, and we expect that such a deal will likely be funded with equity. Our reasoning is underpinned by recent M&A activity in the oil patch, such as the all-stock acquisition of Noble Energy by Chevron Corporation (CVX) through a ~$5 billion deal that was completed in early-October. That deal involved Chevron paying a ~12% premium (based on ten-day average closing stock prices) at the time of the announcement, though please note … Read more

Our Thoughts on the Oil & Gas Industry

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Image Shown: Crude oil prices, measured by the WTI benchmark, plummeted during the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic and have yet to fully recover. Declines in global crude oil prices have depressed prices for natural gas, natural gas liquids, and liquified natural gas as well. We expect that it will take some time for the oil and gas industry to truly recover, and hefty net debt loads combined with onerous dividend obligations are making that a very tough task. Juicy dividend yields are a sign of the headwinds facing the oil and gas industry and are not a sign of strong underlying strength in those firms that are paying out generous dividends. By Callum Turcan Raw energy resources prices … Read more