AAPL

Apple Reports Best Quarter Ever Despite Declining iPhone, China Sales

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On January 30, Apple (AAPL) reported better than expected fiscal first quarter results, with both revenue and GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecasts. Quarterly revenue was up 4% year-over-year, while quarterly diluted earnings per share advanced 10% year-over-year. Fiscal first quarter services revenue reached a record high, increasing 13.9% from the same period a year ago. Gross margin came in at 46.9%, up from 45.9% in last year’s quarter, while its operating margin came in at 34.5%, up from 33.8% in the year-ago period. Management was upbeat in the press release: …Apple is reporting our best quarter ever, with revenue of $124.3 billion, up 4 percent from a year ago. We … Read more

Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle Rating

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Image Source: Ian By Brian Nelson, CFA “In business, I look for economic castles protected by unbreachable moats.” – Warren Buffett In the world of investing, no other saying may be more widespread. The teachings of Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A, BRK.B) Warren Buffett have become a favorite among individual investors, having been adopted by money-management firms and sell-side firms alike in order to better connect with their clients and readers who have been ‘under siege’ by the topic in recent years. The phrase ‘economic moat’ – or sustainable competitive advantage – has simply become ubiquitous in the investment world and perhaps has lost much of its significance and meaning along the way. Most management teams across the globe are now eager … Read more

How Does 37% Sound?

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Image: The Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG) is up more than 37% so far in 2024. By Brian Nelson, CFA How does 37% sound? That was the price-only performance of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG) thus far in 2024. Over the preceding 5-year period, the SCHG is up over 140%. For years, I have pounded the table on the theory that there are not value or growth stocks, but rather undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued stocks. It’s why many growth stocks can be undervalued. It’s the Theory of Universal Valuation found in Value Trap that ties myriad areas of finance to the well-known discounted cash-flow [DCF] model. Growth is a component of value. Hook, line, … Read more

Berkshire Hathaway’s Operating Earnings, Free Cash Flow Fall in Third Quarter

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Image: Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its stake in Apple and Bank of America. By Brian Nelson, CFA Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) reported third quarter results November 2. Revenue edged down modestly on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, to $93 billion, while net earnings attributable to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders came in at $26.3 billion, up from a loss in the year-ago period as after-tax investment gains of $16.2 billion powered the improved performance. Image: Investment gains powered Berkshire’s third quarter results. After-tax operating earnings in the quarter, however, fell to $10.1 billion from $10.8 billion in the third quarter of 2023. Insurance underwriting experienced the biggest decline, with after-tax operating earnings dropping to $750 million from $2.4 billion in the … Read more

Apple’s Fiscal Fourth Quarter Report Shows Strength

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Image: Apple’s shares continue to flirt with all-time highs. By Brian Nelson, CFA Apple (AAPL) reported better than expected fiscal fourth quarter results October 31 that showed a beat on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased 6% year-over-year, to $94.9 billion, while the company posted adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.64, up 12% year-over-year, after excluding a one-time charge related to the impact of the reversal of the European General Court’s State Aid decision. Management had the following to say about the quarter: Today Apple is reporting a new September quarter revenue record of $94.9 billion, up 6 percent from a year ago. During the quarter, we were excited to announce our best products yet, with the … Read more

Brain Teaser – Reflexive versus Reflective

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Dear members: — Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal, wrote in his pioneering text, Your Money and Your Brain, a few fun examples of how sometimes the psychological process of anchoring and adjustment can trip us up. — In one notable example, Zweig wrote about how two psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman had asked volunteers to spin a wheel of fortune numbered from 0 to 100. The contestants didn’t know that the wheel was rigged to produce either a 10 or a 65 for the experiment. — After spinning the wheel, the contestants were then asked whether the percentage of total United Nations membership made up of countries in Africa was higher or lower than the number that came up. … Read more

The Difference Between Speculation and Investment

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Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment.  Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I’d like to talk about the concept of speculation. I think it is best taught with a story perhaps, one of my personal experiences. I used to work on the buy side and one of the more interesting stocks that I pitched in my experience was a company called Synaptics (SYNA). This must have been in 2004-2005 — almost 20 years ago now. Synaptics made an interface for a number of electronic devices, and what it held was some of the technological building blocks for a click-wheel technology. About a year or two later following that … Read more

Berkshire Hathaway’s Cash Balance Swells, Ownership Stake in Apple Substantially Reduced

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Image: Berkshire Hathaway reduced its equity stake in Apple by a sizable margin. By Brian Nelson, CFA Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) recently reported second quarter results. The insurance and industrial conglomerate’s total revenue nudged up modestly 1.2% during the second quarter, while net earnings attributable to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders dropped to $30.4 billion from $35.9 billion in the same period a year ago, as investment gains weren’t as large as they were in the same period last year. Berkshire Hathaway ended the quarter with $276.9 billion in cash and short-term investments in U.S. Treasury bills, up from $167.6 billion at the end of last year. For the first six months of the year, cash flow from operations came in at … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

What to Do During This Market Selloff

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By Brian Nelson, CFA In short, nothing. The U.S. stock market (SPY) was chugging along nicely until what was interpreted as a very favorable Consumer Price Index (CPI) print on July 11 that sent a rotation out of large cap growth and big cap tech into the beaten down areas of smaller cap stocks, prompting a broader market sell-off. The reasoning goes that, with inflation largely under control, smaller companies will benefit more from future rate cuts via reduced interest expense relative to larger companies. Though this is true, to varying degrees, the magnitude of the rotation was somewhat surprising, as rate cuts should benefit large cap growth (SCHG) and big cap tech (XLK), too, but we’ve seen this rotation … Read more