AAPL

Apple Looks to Strong December Quarter

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 30, Apple (AAPL) reported better than expected fiscal fourth quarter results, with both revenue and GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecast. Quarterly revenue of $102.5 billion was up 8% year-over-year, while adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.85 was up 13% year-over-year. Management had the following to say about the results: Today, Apple is very proud to report a September quarter revenue record of $102.5 billion, including a September quarter revenue record for iPhone and an all-time revenue record for Services. In September, we were thrilled to launch our best iPhone lineup ever, including iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max, and iPhone Air. In addition, we launched … Read more

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Your Role as a Choice Architect

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“As we’ve shown time and time again, you don’t need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen.” — Dear members: — Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge (1), co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. — A good example of a choice architect might be a cafeteria worker that has to decide how to organize the food in a buffet line … Read more

The Risks to Apple Are Increasing

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On July 31, Apple (AAPL) reported better than expected fiscal third quarter results with revenue and GAAP earnings per share coming in ahead of the consensus forecast. The iPhone maker reported quarterly revenue of $94 billion, up 10% year-over-year and better than the Street’s forecast of $89.16 billion, while operating income jumped to $28.2 billion from $25.4 billion in last year’s quarter. Quarterly diluted earnings per share came in at $1.57, up 12% year-over-year and better than consensus of $1.43. Management was upbeat in the press release: Today Apple is proud to report a June quarter revenue record with double-digit growth in iPhone, Mac and Services and growth around the world, in every … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Apple’s Earnings Set March Quarter Record; Services Revenue Hits All-Time High

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Image: Apple’s shares remain resilient despite tariff pressures. By Brian Nelson, CFA On May 1, Apple (AAPL) reported better than expected second quarter results for fiscal 2025 with both revenue and GAAP earnings per share coming in ahead of the consensus forecasts. The iPhone giant reported quarterly revenue of $95.4 billion, up 5% year-over-year, while quarterly diluted earnings per share came in at $1.65, up 8% year-over-year. The board raised its dividend 4% and authorized an additional buyback program to the tune of $100 billion. Management had the following to say about its fiscal second quarter showing: Today Apple is reporting strong quarterly results, including double-digit growth in Services. We were happy to welcome iPhone 16e to our lineup, and … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Apple Reports Best Quarter Ever Despite Declining iPhone, China Sales

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On January 30, Apple (AAPL) reported better than expected fiscal first quarter results, with both revenue and GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecasts. Quarterly revenue was up 4% year-over-year, while quarterly diluted earnings per share advanced 10% year-over-year. Fiscal first quarter services revenue reached a record high, increasing 13.9% from the same period a year ago. Gross margin came in at 46.9%, up from 45.9% in last year’s quarter, while its operating margin came in at 34.5%, up from 33.8% in the year-ago period. Management was upbeat in the press release: …Apple is reporting our best quarter ever, with revenue of $124.3 billion, up 4 percent from a year ago. We … Read more

Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle Rating

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Image Source: Ian By Brian Nelson, CFA “In business, I look for economic castles protected by unbreachable moats.” – Warren Buffett In the world of investing, no other saying may be more widespread. The teachings of Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A, BRK.B) Warren Buffett have become a favorite among individual investors, having been adopted by money-management firms and sell-side firms alike in order to better connect with their clients and readers who have been ‘under siege’ by the topic in recent years. The phrase ‘economic moat’ – or sustainable competitive advantage – has simply become ubiquitous in the investment world and perhaps has lost much of its significance and meaning along the way. Most management teams across the globe are now eager … Read more