YUM

Holy Guacamole! McDonald’s Wishing It Had Kept Chipotle

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Very few investors probably remember that Chipotle (CMG) used to be owned in part by McDonald’s (MCD). McDonald’s had originally taken a stake in Chipotle in February 1998, when Chipotle had but 14 restaurants in Denver. The maker of the Big Mac would go on to own 90% of the subsidiary and eventually spin it off in an initial public offering in January 2006. McDonald’s would receive ~$1.5 billion from the sale, but with Chipotle’s market capitalization now at over $20 billion, it’s clear the burger-and-fries behemoth exited way too early. The most recently-reported results by both restaurants tell the diverging story quite well. McDonald’s reported relatively disappointing second-quarter results Tuesday. The performance can best be described as flat. Global … Read more

Yum! Brands, McDonald’s: ‘Big Trouble in Little China’

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Source: Dragon TV 00:27 / 08:28 Source: Dragon TV 00:35 / 08:28 Source: Dragon TV 01:19 / 08:28 The pictures above are allegedly from a Chinese plant of Shanghai Husi Food, owned by OSI Group, which is based in Aurora, Illinois. This link source will take you directly to the actual news footage from local Dragon TV (it is not translated to English, but the video is of high quality). Shanghai Husi Food is a key local meat supplier in China to KFC, owned by Yum! Brands (YUM), and McDonald’s (MCD)—as well as Starbucks (SBUX), but to a lesser extent. All three US-based restaurants have since halted buying meat products from the company. What makes this story worse is that … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Restaurant Industry Update

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The fast-food (quick-service) breakfast wars have intensified. It has become a high-stakes game for all participants, and most have gone all-in to capture market share, to use poker parlance. The NPD Group, a leading global information firm, noted that the pace of expansion for fast-food breakfast across the restaurant industry has been a key bright spot, and executives across the industry are taking note: Quick service, which accounts for about 80 percent of total restaurant morning meals, showed the strongest increase in breakfast visits of all restaurant segments with a 4 percent increase in the year ending December 2013 period compared to year ago, reports NPD CREST, which every day tracks how consumers use restaurants and other foodservice outlets. Morning … Read more

Iron Ore Prices Plunge

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Worries about the pace of China’s economic expansion are hurting prices for iron ore. According to data from the Steel Index Ltd, benchmark iron ore dropped more than 8% to $104.70 a dry ton March 10, falling the most since August 2009. Over the weekend, news revealed that Chinese exports dropped a surprisingly 18.1% in February, relative to expectations calling for a 7.5% increase. According to customs data released March 8, China’s imports of iron ore were 61.24 million metric tons in February, significantly below the 86.83 million tons registered in January. The news, while not shocking, wasn’t very pleasant. Still, we’re taking the recently-released February numbers with a grain of salt. Scares regarding the pace of China’s economic growth … Read more

Previewing Yum! Brands’ Fourth Quarter Results

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Yum! Brands (YUM), the owner of KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell, will report its fourth-quarter results after the market close Monday. The quick-service restaurant giant is a global powerhouse with solid brands and strong cash-flow generating capacity. Yum! Brands has generated cash flow from operations of $1 billion or more in each of the past 10 years, with the firm pulling in more than $2 billion in each of the past two years. The company’s greatest growth opportunity resides with its KFC brand in China. Per one million people, there are just 3 KFC units in China. In other Asian countries, this ratio is closer to 20 to 1, implying significant long-term expansion in the country. China’s consumer class … Read more

Quiet Trading This Week

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If you haven’t yet read Part I of our Best Ideas piece, you can find it here. The holiday week was very quiet, as expected. However, a few news items did hit the wires that we’d like you to be aware of. First, we received word from ChannelAdvisor, a leading cloud-based e-commerce solutions provider, that same-store sales momentum across the e-commerce spectrum may have slowed in the third week of December. This runs counter to the strong data we’ve been receiving from the space through most of the holiday season. However, we believe the recent news release is something we’d categorize as “noise” (immaterial), especially given the significant date-shifting performed in the representation of the data. ChannelAdvisor had the following … Read more

Yum! Brands Says the Worst Is Over in China

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Late Friday afternoon, fast food giant Yum! Brands (click ticker for report: ) once again posted weak same-store sales results in China. Same-store sales in August declined 10% year-over-year driven by a 12% decline at KFC and 5% growth at Pizza Hut. For the third quarter, Yum! estimates that total same-store sales fell 11% with KFC down 14% and Pizza Hut’s same-store sales up 4%. This isn’t the first time Yum!’s same-store sales in China have moderated. After falling 19% year-over-year in May, Chinese same-store sales declined 10% in June, and then fell 13% year-over-year in July. Management noted that it believes same-store sales growth will be positive in the fourth quarter, implying Chinese sales may finally have bottomed. Image … Read more