XLV

Your Role as a Choice Architect

by

“As we’ve shown time and time again, you don’t need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen.” — Dear members: — Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge (1), co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. — A good example of a choice architect might be a cafeteria worker that has to decide how to organize the food in a buffet line … Read more

Eli Lilly Puts Up Strong Second Quarter Results, Raises Outlook

by

Image: Shares of Eli Lilly have been strong the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA Eli Lilly (LLY) reported better than expected second quarter results on August 8 with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than the consensus forecast. Revenue jumped 36% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis thanks to strength in Mounjaro, Zepbound, and Verzenio. Volume increased 27%, while the company experienced a 10% increase in realized prices, offset by a 1% headwind with respect to foreign exchange. Non-GAAP net income and earnings per share both increased 86% in what was a blockbuster report from the pharma giant. Management had the following to say about the strong performance: Mounjaro, Zepbound and Verzenio led … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

by

Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

Johnson & Johnson Narrows 2024 Outlook, Raises Dividend

by

Image Source: J&J By Brian Nelson, CFA Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported mixed first-quarter 2024 results on April 16 with adjusted operational growth of 4%. Excluding its COVID-19 vaccine sales, revenue growth was 7.7% in the period. First quarter adjusted earnings per share advanced 12.4%, to $2.71, which was slightly better than the consensus forecast. Management was upbeat in the press release: Johnson & Johnson’s solid first quarter performance reflects our sharpened focus and the progress in our portfolio and pipeline. Our impact across the full spectrum of healthcare is unique in our industry, and the milestones achieved this quarter reinforce our position as an innovation powerhouse. J&J’s adjusted operational sales for its Innovative Medicine division increased 2.5%, while adjusted operational sales … Read more

Eli Lilly’s Shares Have More Than Doubled During the Past 52 Weeks

by

Image: Eli Lilly’s shares have been on a tear these past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 6, Eli Lilly (LLY) reported excellent fourth-quarter results that showed revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expectations. The company’s fourth-quarter results were bolstered by sales of diabetes and weight-loss drug Mounjaro, which saw sales in the quarter leap to ~$2.2 billion from ~$279 million in the year ago period. We continue to be in awe of the sales momentum behind GLP-1 receptor agonists, and the opportunity continues to be robust, despite already rapid sales acceleration. Though Eli Lilly trades at a premium to the high end of our fair value estimate range, we may be low in … Read more

Earnings Roundup: NFLX, ASML, T, ABT

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA Netflix (NFLX) Lands WWE Raw and Puts Up Huge Streaming Paid Member Number Image: Netflix’s substantially improved free cash flow has made it a clear winner in the streaming wars. Image Source: Netflix. On January 23, Netflix reported mixed fourth-quarter results that showed a beat on the top line, but a bottom-line miss. The mixed performance, however, was overshadowed by a huge growth number in new global streaming paid memberships of 13.12 million during the quarter and a landmark $5 billion deal with TKO Group (TKO) to begin streaming WWE Raw exclusively on Netflix beginning in January 2025. 2023 was a banner year for Netflix. The company grew revenue 12% (up from 6% last year), pushed … Read more

UnitedHealth Group’s Long-Term Story Intact

by

Image: UnitedHealth Group’s shares are facing pressure as the pace of medical procedures normalizes following COVID-19. We still like shares. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 7, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) raised its quarterly dividend nearly 14%, to $1.88 per share, which reflects a forward estimated dividend yield of 1.65%. The company remains a staple in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and is a new add in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Recent comments by UNH’s John Rex on June 14 regarding the firm’s healthcare costs during the second quarter have put shares under pressure during the trading session. Discretionary surgeries have picked back up following a lull during most of the COVID-19 pandemic as hospital capacity was largely constrained during … Read more

Our Reports on the Health Care Bellwethers Industry

by

Dividend Yield: Estimated on a forward-looking annualized basis. VBI: The Valuentum Buying Index, a timeliness indicator that overlays a price-to-fair-value estimate consideration. Fair Value Estimate: Derived by Valuentum’s enterprise valuation process. Dividend Cushion ratio: A ratio assessing the health of the dividend (the higher, the better). Data as of the date of this article. Individual company reports may have been updated subsequent to the publishing of this article, so please download a company’s stock and dividend report for its latest information and data. Note: The data in the tables of each of the below companies’ respective stock pages is updated the weekend after the publishing of this update. Please click on a company name below to view the corresponding equity … Read more

1Q 2023 Earnings Coming in Better Than Feared Thus Far

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ve been receiving questions about the companies that we are looking to add to the Best Ideas Newsletter to replace the ones we recently removed, and I can say that we’re strongly considering adding Booking Holding (BKNG) and adding to the existing “position” in Chipotle (CMG) following their first-quarter 2023 results. We recently raised our fair value estimate for Booking Holding significantly (now $3,091; was $2,147 per share), and we expect a huge fair value increase at Chipotle in the coming weeks. Booking Holding will report its first-quarter 2023 earnings in early May, while Chipotle will report first-quarter 2023 results on April 25. We have several other ideas in mind to add to the Best Ideas … Read more

UnitedHealth Group Raises Guidance for 2023

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 14, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported first-quarter 2023 that beat the consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue advanced 14.7% in the quarter, while non-GAAP earnings per share of $6.26 beat the consensus number by $0.18, increasing from $5.49 per share in the prior-year period. The high end of the fair value estimate range of UnitedHealthGroup stands north of $600 per share, implying considerable valuation upside potential compared to where shares are trading at the time of this writing. Image: We view valuation as a range of probable fair value outcomes. The high end of the fair value estimate range for UnitedHealth Group stands north of $600. Shares are currently trading at … Read more