The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds
Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.
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Market Valuations Not “Insane” But Certainly Not Cheap Either
The stock market is not insanely overpriced, but it is certainly not cheap either. We’re watching the technicals and moves in the 10-year Treasury closely for signs of where the market may go next. We discuss Walmart’s recent disappointment and add another to the list of companies that the Dividend Cushion ratio effectively highlighted the heightened income risk profile of, prior to the dividend cut. Chipotle is on the move! By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA According to the February 16, 2018 release of Factset’s Earnings Insight, the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is still north of 17 times, above both the 5-year average of 16 and the 10-year average of 14.3. The “right” multiple for … Read more
The US Dollar, GDP Expansion, and Earnings
Investors wouldn’t think news flow is that robust given that stock market volatility in recent months has been practically nil, but news is coming in fast. Let’s check up on the performance of the US dollar, the rate of GDP growth as well as key companies reporting fourth-quarter earnings. Intel’s quarterly report was fantastic, for one! By Kris Rosemann The US dollar (UUP, UDN, USDU) hit a three-year low against the euro, but US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggests a weaker dollar may be good for the US, which is a change from traditional US policy, though he was sure to note that the government is not concerned about short-term fluctuations in the currency. Meanwhile, of course, the euro … Read more
Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes. Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more
Video: Nelson’s Active Management Theorem, Poker and “High Society,” Inertia and the Value-Growth Conundrum
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson details his simple new theorem of the stock market that may change everything you believe. Nelson explains using poker as an example, and he goes on to caution about the concept of inertia, and how investing has somehow transformed into a “game” — if investors truly believe there are ‘value’ and ‘growth’ stocks. A must-watch intrigue. Running time: ~11 minutes.
Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Robert Shiller On Indexing
Robert Shiller on what worries him about passive investing from CNBC. “The problem is that if you are talking about passive indexing, that is something that is really free-riding on other people’s work. So people say, ‘I’m not going to try to beat the market. The market is all-knowing.’ But how in the world can the market be all-knowing, if nobody is trying — well, not as many people — are trying to beat it? … The strength of this country was built on people who watched individual companies. They had opinions about them. All this talk of indexes, it’s a little bit diluting of our intellect. It becomes more of a game. It’s a chaotic system. It’s kind of … Read more
Housing Market Very Strong But To “Face Two Contradicting Challenges”
Image Shown: The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has advanced ~ 24% year-to-date, according to data from YahooFinance. “Housing indicators may be leveling off,” per S&P Corelogic, and the threat of rising interest rates looms (as it has for years), but we like the fundamental strength that we’re seeing from the homebuilders of late, which has translated into strong equity performance. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ve been bullish on the US housing market recovery since early 2012, and we’ve pointed to several factors as to why–including improved affordability, investment by both individuals and investors, falling unemployment, improved household formation, limited inventory, and more recently, the wealth effect that a rising stock market provides. Things continue to be on the … Read more
The Wisdom of Oaktree’s Howard Marks
Image Source: emmolos The latest memo from Oaktree’s Howard Marks here should be read and then read again. The section on passive investing is an absolute treasure. “Passive investing is done in vehicles that make no judgments about the soundness of companies and the fairness of prices. More than $1 billion is flowing daily to “passive managers” (there’s an oxymoron for you) who buy regardless of price. I’ve always viewed index funds as “freeloaders” who make use of the consensus decisions of active investors for free. How comfortable can investors be these days, now that fewer and fewer active decisions are being made?” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Financial Tech Services: ACIW, EPAY, FDC, FIS, FISV, FLT, GPN, MA, MELI, … Read more
Adviser Fees on Indexed Assets Can Eat Up Your Nest Egg?
Indexing sounds like an easy way to track the market’s performance, but if your indexed assets are held in financial advisors’ accounts, it can come with a big cost: significant underperformance. Over 20 years, we estimate in this hypothetical example that the cumulative cost as a result of a 1% annual financial advisor fee on indexed assets can amount to as much as 66% of a saver’s initial investment — just for holding an index fund. Please be careful out there!
Systemic Risk in These Frothy Times
Let’s talk about index investing, market valuations, and mention how a few ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter are doing. By Brian Nelson, CFA For most investors during most parts of the economic cycle, index investing (VOO), or holding a broad basket of stocks that approximate the returns of a large market index may make a lot of sense. I have always said this from the very beginning: Individual stock selection is not for everyone. What may not be well-known, however, is that index funds have experienced multi-year periods of both outperformance and underperformance relative to actively-managed funds since the dawning of the very first index fund many decades ago. I’m worried that some investors today may not have this … Read more