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Investors Aren’t Sold on Lear’s Ostensibly “Cheap” Valuation and Neither Are We

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Image Shown: While Lear Corporation appears attractive at first glance, its technical performance tells a different story. The market is concerned that the global synchronized downturn that has emerged will get worse, which would weigh on Lear’s expected financial trajectory. Global automotive sales are already coming under pressure, and there’s not much Lear, as a leading auto parts supplier, can do about that. We think the market might be right on this one. By Callum Turcan On August 16, we updated our reports for the auto parts supplier industry and those updated reports can be accessed here. Lear Corporation (LEA) stood out right away. The company supplies auto parts to customers all around the world, namely electrical power management systems … Read more

We Have Dropped Coverage of the Auto Parts Supplier Industry

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Image Source: Don O’Brien, Darryl Braaten Structure of the Auto Parts Supplier Industry The highly-cyclical auto supplier industry depends on economic conditions and consumer confidence. Volatile gas prices impact a supplier’s input costs and the types of vehicles demanded by consumers. OEMs have considerable bargaining power over suppliers in negotiating terms on largely-commoditized parts. The industry is regulated by environmental and safety laws, providing both challenges and opportunities. Suppliers have considerable operating leverage and remain extremely competitive, which prevents outsize economic returns over the long haul. In general, we don’t like the structure of the group. We have dropped coverage of the Auto Parts Supplier industry.

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more

ATTN: Advisors and Planners — Disruption Is Looming

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“With the commoditization of investment advice and intense competition from robos and other more cost-efficient solutions, growth-minded advisors want to create bespoke experiences for clients.” — WealthManagement.com By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi Valuentum members, colleagues and friends, Valuentum has a large subscriber base and is one of the most successful paid subscription financial information websites launched this decade. Over the past eight years or so, individuals, financial advisors and money managers from all over the world have subscribed to our services. We pride ourselves on independence and transparency, and we’re a champion of the investor. Today, I’d like to talk directly to our financial advisor, financial planner, and professional money-manager members. You probably already heard the news yesterday: Charles Schwab, which handles … Read more

Tenneco’s Shares Undervalued Leading Up to Business Separation

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  Image Source: Tenneco fourth quarter earnings presentation We think shares of Tenneco are undervalued as the company gears up to complete a business separation in the back half of 2019, but we’re not interested in the stock as a great deal of uncertainty surrounds not only the company itself but the auto supplier industry in general. Expectations for a decline in global light vehicle production in 2019 coupled with heightened concerns over the pace of global economic growth do not bode well for the group, and the auto landscape is one that may see material change in coming years. By Kris Rosemann The auto and transportation space continues to evolve, and companies in all verticals within it are working … Read more

DG Newsletter Alert, Markets on a Roll! New Highs Coming?

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively. It doesn’t look like the timing could have been much better.  Changes to Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio Removing Novartis (NVS) -3.5%-5.5% Adding Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) +3.5%-5.5% By Brian Nelson, CFA The back half of 2018 was among the most exciting in Valuentum’s history. For one, we might have made one of our best “market-direction” calls since inception in practically calling the near-term bottom December 26. In hindsight, it’s clear the market had overreacted, but at the time, going to “fully … Read more

Valuentum’s Stock and Data Screens and Screeners

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Let’s go over where to find Valuentum’s stock and data screens and screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, and our data comes straight from our enterprise discounted cash flow models that we use to derive a company’s fair value estimate. By The Valuentum Team In late 2017, we made the decision to transition to providing an updated Excel download each week to members in order to allow them to facilitate any combination of screening criteria they want with respect to our vast amounts of data, whether it be the Valuentum Buying Index, the Dividend Cushion ratio or other. What we’ve found out the past 15 months or so … Read more

General Motors Rallies, Tesla and Toyota Improve, Auto Parts Suppliers Getting Squeezed

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Image shown: General Motors may very well be on its way to $50+ per share. We continue to like General Motors, and we think Tesla is getting back on the right track with its financials. Auto parts suppliers have faced their fair share of pressure in recent months as the potential for a slowdown in global light vehicle production rises and input cost inflation also makes its presence felt. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA On February 6, General Motors (GM) reported fourth-quarter 2018 earnings, and they were quite good. We continue to believe shares of GM are ultra-cheap, as we wrote in: “We Think General Motors Is Poised for New Highs.” The automaker is included as an idea … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com