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M&A Roundup: Sprint and T-Mobile Finally Official, Marathon Petroleum to Become Nation’s Largest Refiner

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Image Source: Mike Mozart A number of notable deals hit the wires over the weekend or Monday morning. Lets’ take a quick look. We expect to update our reports on the respective companies in the coming days. By Kris Rosemann Key Takeaways Sprint and T-Mobile are officially tying the knot. Though the deal faces regulatory scrutiny, we think T-Mobile shareholders are getting the best of the deal. If the transaction is consummated and synergies are achieved as planned, both sets of shareholders should be happy though. The wireless telecom industry will continue to be extremely debt and capital intensive, however. We think the Sprint-T-Mobile deal will ultimately get approved, but we are not particularly fond of betting on how regulatory … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

Market Overreacts to Facebook News

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Image Source: Christopher The headline news seems concerning, but we’re taking a long-term perspective with Facebook. We doubt the news will meaningfully impact the trajectory of growth of its long-term free cash flow, and we’re not reading too much into events that seem heavily-influenced by the overheated political environment. By Brian Nelson, CFA Investors are overreacting and selling shares of Facebook (FB) March 19 because they are worried about implications of a UK probe and a state investigation into the practices of Cambridge Analytica, a privately-held data mining and analysis company, and whether the way Cambridge Analytica acquired and applied data from users of Facebook was legal. The New York Times first broke the story when the paper published a … Read more

Our Ideas Are Performing Awesome So Far in 2018!!! 6 of the Top 7 of the Dow!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Every day we think about how we can make things easier for our members. Instead of having to visit multiple links on our website with screens, you now have access to one downloadable Excel file where you can sort and rank how you wish. Of course, you can always find those screens in the newsletters, each and every month, too, but we think a weekly data download is a huge value add to our offering. Can you imagine getting updated data every week for 52 weeks of the year for what we charge, let alone two newsletters, hundreds of reports, commentary, and education material? Wow, right? People keep saying we do too much, but when our … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

In the News: General Mills, Realty Income, Energy Transfer

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General Mills makes a big deal, Realty Income delivers, while Energy Transfer tries to battle back to even. By Kris Rosemann US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis came out in support of recommendations from the Commerce Department for targeted tariffs on steel and aluminum. While the Defense Department recognizes that imports of low-cost steel (SLX) and aluminum resulting from unfair trading practices undermine national security, it also warns that more broad action could irritate allies. President Trump has until April to decide whether or not to take action on the recommendations from the Commerce Department for tariffs up to 24% and 7.7% on foreign steel and aluminum, respectively. Consumer food product giant General Mills (GIS) made a splash before the … Read more

Bioverativ’s Takeout, Visa’s Surge, and General Electric’s Pain

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From Bioverativ’s takeout to Visa’s stock price surge to General Electric’s continued pain, there’s a lot going on in the stock market. Let’s cover some ground. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA It’s hard to believe this but our best idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Visa (V), is now a $124+ per share stock. We know how to pick ‘em, would you say? We don’t get everything correct, of course, but if you’ve read anything on our website, we can only hope that you’ve witnessed Visa’s meteoric rise. The high end of our updated fair value estimate range for Visa is north of $130 per share. What a wild ride it has been, to say the least, … Read more

The New Theorem of the Stock Market

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the new theory of the stock market and explains how syllogisms developed by Noble prize winners and the largest asset managers may not accurately reflect active management at the investor level, which Nelson argues is what matters. Running time: ~15 minutes. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.  Excerpts from Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too (Valuentum) Read the paper from the beginning here (pdf).   Tickerized for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Mutual Fund Tragedy, ROE, and the Time Horizon

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Comparisons between growth versus value stocks may never go away, but President of Investment Research Brian Nelson explains why you should know better than to think stocks can easily be divided up as such. He talks about this, as well as the pitfalls of ROE (return on equity) and how to think about the time horizon. Running time: ~10 minutes.

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more