VGR

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Tobacco Industry

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Image Source: Altria Structure of the Tobacco Industry The oligopolistic tobacco industry is attractive in a number of ways. Firms sell an “addictive” product (cigarettes and/or smokeless tobacco), have significant pricing power, generate high margins, and strong returns on invested capital. Still, declining trends in smoking in the US, threats of tobacco-related litigation, new tobacco regulation (labeling) that discourages tobacco use, and excise tax price shocks that may impact demand will always be concerns. In any case, we tend to like the structural characteristics of the tobacco industry and the shareholder-friendly policies of constituents. We’ve reallocated our resources to cover more recession-resistant stocks. See here.

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Holdings AT&T and Philip Morris International Continue to Shine

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Image Shown: AT&T continues to surge higher this year as shares of T converge towards their intrinsic value, a process supported by recent activist investor activity directed towards the company. If you may wish to add the High Yield Dividend Newsletter to your membership, please click here. By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA AT&T On October 28, AT&T Inc (T) reported third-quarter 2019 earnings, and the market clearly liked what the company had to say. Shares of AT&T are trading up ~4% as of this writing as the company’s stock price continues converging towards its intrinsic value, in our view. Our fair value estimate for AT&T stands at $40 per share, with room for upside, and we continue to … Read more

Philip Morris International: Free Cash Flow King With Upside Potential

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Image Shown: Philip Morris International’s Marlboro cigarette brand remains very popular worldwide. Pricing power is essential to offsetting declines in traditional cigarette sales volumes as the company positions itself for alternative tobacco products to become a larger part of its revenue streams. Image Source: Philip Morris International – Third quarter 2019 earnings presentation By Callum Turcan Philip Morris International (PM) posted third quarter 2019 earnings on October 17. As of this writing, Philip Morris International yields 5.8%, and we include shares of PM in our simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. While the company cut its full-year forecast for 2019 partially due to a tax charge, the deconsolidation of a subsidiary, and foreign currency headwinds, Philip Morris International is still … Read more

Altria and Philip Morris to Tie the Knot?

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    Altria and Philip Morris to Tie the Knot? — Hi everyone, — Trust you are doing great. In case you missed it, we wanted to make sure that you saw our team’s comments on the latest economic developments. They can be accessed at the following link, “The Valuentum Team Talks Powell Speech and Threat of Global Recession.”  — In these Economic Roundtable notes (e.g. the link above), we blend thoughts from President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, Co-editor of the Newsletters and Associate Investment Analyst Callum Turcan and Independent Financials Contributor Matthew Warren. Like Brian, Matt worked at Morningstar for many years, and he is credited with turning around the performance of the company’s equity financials team during the … Read more

Altria’s Sprawling Business to Underperform Long-Term Bottom-Line Target in 2019

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Image Source: Melanie Tata Altria’s business has grown increasingly complex recently as it has levered up to add exposure to new growth opportunities. We don’t find the convoluted company attractive, even after considering its lofty yield, and its core cigarette business continues to face material industry-wide volume declines. By Kris Rosemann We extinguished Altria (MO) from the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio December 21 after assessing the announcement of its deal to acquire a 35% stake in US e-cigarette leader JUUL Labs. Here’s our conclusion from the announcement of our decision, “Parting with Altria on News of Stake in JUUL:” We think Altria may have thrown in the towel on harvesting its core smoking demographic and may now be entering … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

In The News: Record-Low Smoking Rates, China Steel Demand Concerns, and a New Look GM

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US smoking rates are at all-time lows, and the FDA is pushing to restrict sales of menthol products and flavored e-cigarettes. Meanwhile General Motors has announced an accelerated restructuring plan, and concerns have cropped up regarding steel demand in China. By Kris Rosemann The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that 14% of US adults, or roughly 34.3 million people, smoked cigarettes in 2017, a record low, compared to 15.5% in 2016 and 42.4% in 1965, the first year the figure was tracked. Public health initiatives have clearly played a role in the decline, but the CDC also estimates that 47 million people still use some form of tobacco product. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is … Read more