UPL

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

by

Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Bakken Production Is Booming and Continental Resources Is a Winner

by

 Key Takeaways: ·        Continental Resources is an oil and gas E&P with the largest shale position in the Bakken. ·        Production and proved reserves have significant room to grow. ·        A supermajor oil company like Exxon or Chevron could be interested in acquiring Continental. ·        We believe shares have 35% upside from current levels. Production of shale oil in the Bakken (1) continues to grow rapidly, and the long-term production fortunes in the region remain as positive as ever. Let’s take a look at Continental Resources (click ticker for report: ), a firm we believe has 35% upside from current levels and one that recently made our list of The 25 Cheapest Stocks on the Market. (1) The Bakken field … Read more

Valuentum’s Comprehensive Outlook for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

by

Let’s take a deep dive into the energy sector. The best dividend growth ideas, the most likely takeout candidates and more…

January 5-9: The Week That Was – Drowning in Crude

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA The first full week of 2015 was a wild one! Monday and Tuesday brought some hefty losses to the indices, but the middle of the week helped recover most of the ground, only to give some of it back Friday. When all was said and done, however, the S&P 500 still closed comfortably above 2040, a huge leap from just 5-6 years ago. We’re still enjoying the good times, with economic data still coming in relatively sanguine. Like a frog in water, the markets are just waiting for the next shoe to drop, and the Federal Reserve is doing all that it can to assure investors that the Yellen-put is there to prop up the markets should … Read more

Creditor Risk Aversion Rises Considerably in Energy, Metals & Mining Sectors

by

Not all is well with commodity producers. Moody’s (MCO) has been very quick to point out that “the latest plunge by base metals prices and the renewed slide (in) crude oil prices are more ominous for corporate credit than was the earlier plummet by crude oil prices amid relatively steady industrial metals prices.” The credit rating agency’s industrial metals price index has dropped more than 10% in the past 20 days ending July 9, reaching levels not seen since the depths of the Financial Crisis in 2009. Moody’s industrial metals price index has fallen an incredible 25% since the same time stamp last year, something we’ve been witnessing anecdotally. The International Energy Agency recently warned that the bottom in crude oil … Read more

Black Gold! Crude Oil Prices Leap to ~$50

by

Key Takeaways: After being negative throughout much of the collapse in energy resource prices during 2014-2015, Valuentum has been market-neutral on the energy sector since October of last year, and the newsletter portfolios have participated in the bounce in energy shares from January 2016 via the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE). The Dividend Cushion ratio, which is a forward-looking cash-flow based metric of dividend health, flagged the risk of every dividend cut, without fail, in the Independent Oil & Gas industry in advance of the event: Anadarko (APC), Cenovus (CVE), Cimarex (XEC), Devon Energy (DVN), Noble Energy (NBL), and Range Resources (RRC). We’ll walk through the degree of capital cuts across the Independent Oil & Gas industry, the group’s efforts … Read more