TOT

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Coronavirus May Trigger Long-Anticipated Global Recession

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Image: Wuhan New Coronavirus This was the catalyst that nobody was expecting, a novel coronavirus that nobody had in their economic models. We think global economic activity is slowing as we speak, and the spread of the virus may only accelerate in mainland China and elsewhere. Investors should keep a level head and perhaps think about adding protection to their portfolios before it becomes too expensive. By Brian Nelson, CFA How to Use Valuentum’s Investment Research Services >> We’ve walked through a number of scenarios that could trip the global economy into recession–global deflation that tips over the weakest European banks and causes contagion, global military conflict with North Korea or Iran that disrupts economic activity, increased volatility driven by … Read more

The Great Guyanese Oil Boom

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Image Shown: A drill ship floating in open waters. Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan We’re going to get into the potential opportunity for energy producers in Guyana, but first, one thing that often gets lost in the noise surrounding press releases and presentations announcing new upstream projects coming online is that Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) and its peers are contending with serious base decline rates. Decline rates are around 3-5% per year for conventional fields depending on the level of investment made in base maintenance (along with recovery rates and the quality of the rock), which includes such things as gas/water injection projects (this entails drilling injection wells to maintain reservoir pressure and often involves … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Update: US and Iran Now De-escalating Tensions

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By Callum Turcan On January 7, Iran retaliated against the US for the killing of Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani (leader of a group that the US has deemed a terror threat under the Trump administration) less than a week earlier by firing missiles from Iranian soil at bases in Iraq that contain US, Iraqi, and coalition troops. The Iranian government aggressively publicized the attack by providing Iranian media outlets with footage of missiles leaving Iran that were targeted towards Iraq. Fortunately, no US, Iraqi, or coalition casualties were reported. We are very thankful that nobody was hurt as a result of the Iranian missile strike. For our first article covering recent events regarding Middle East tensions, click here. In … Read more

Middle East Tensions on the Rise

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By Callum Turcan Early Friday (Arabian Standard Time) on January 3 (the strike was carried out late Thursday evening Eastern Standard Time), under the orders of President Trump, the US took out major general Qasem Soleimani who was the leader of Iran’s Quds military group within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (‘IRGC’). Please note the US designated the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in April 2019, and that the justification for the strike was due to there being an immediate threat to US lives (namely soldiers and contractors stationed in the Middle East), according to the Pentagon. It’s important to note that the strike occurred on Iraqi soil. The Quds force is known to be Iran’s extraterritorial military outfit, … Read more

Devon Energy Completes High-Grading Process, Free Cash Flows Remain Elusive

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Image Shown: An overview of Devon Energy Corporation’s remaining asset base, which consists of upstream oil and gas operations spread across four major unconventional plays in the US. Image Source: Devon Energy Corporation – December 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Times are tough in the oil & gas patch, especially for upstream producers of raw energy resources like Devon Energy Corporation (DVN). Not only are global oil prices low, which drags down natural gas liquids pricing for products like propane and butane, but North American natural gas supplies are trading at rock-bottom prices as well. Devon Energy has attempted to cope by divesting less economical assets and shifting all of its focus towards its best well locations, a process … Read more

Apache Comes Up Empty in Suriname, Shares Plummet

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Image Source: Apache Corporation – November 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On December 2, Apache Corporation (APA) announced that its first exploration well off the coast of Suriname (a small nation in northern South America) was a dud. The Maka Central-1 well was drilled to a total depth of 6,200 meters (~20,300 feet) in Block 58 and drilling activities commenced in late-September. While the well was testing two Upper Cretaceous plays, neither play appeared to have commercial level of hydrocarbons (more information will be provided by management on this issue in the near future) so Apache opted to drill down to a total depth of 6,900 meters (~22,600 feet) to test a third Cretaceous play. This news sent shares … Read more

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Holding BP Sees Cash Flow Profile Improvements Ahead

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Image Source: BP plc – Third quarter 2019 earnings infographic If you may wish to add the High Yield Dividend Newsletter to your membership, please click here. By Callum Turcan On October 29, BP plc (BP) reported third-quarter 2019 earnings, and shares of BP have since climbed higher due in part to the energy giant’s nice cash flow profile and likely due to the improving outlook for a narrow US-China trade deal. We include BP in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio as a way to play the raw energy resource market and generate sizable income streams while taking advantage of the protection its large midstream (pipelines, storage facilities, etc.), downstream (refineries and petrochemical plants), and retail (gas stations/convenience stores) operations … Read more

ConocoPhillips Pushes Through a Big Dividend Increase, Emerging” Play Is a Dud”

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Image Shown: Shares of ConocoPhillips traded modestly higher on October 7 after announcing a significant dividend increase and plans for additional share buybacks in 2020. However, please note ConocoPhillips is still trading far below where it was at the start of 2019 as an abundance of supplies combined with deteriorating macroeconomic conditions to weigh negatively on expected future raw energy resource pricing. By Callum Turcan On October 7, shares of upstream super-independent ConocoPhillips (COP) traded up modestly after the company announced that it was boosting its quarterly dividend by 38% sequentially and would repurchase $3.0 billion worth of its shares in 2020. Management noted that the upsized dividend would cost an additional $0.5 billion on an annualized basis. Shares of … Read more