Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

Waste Management to Acquire Stericycle

Image: Waste Management’s shares have done quite well the past 12-18 months. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 3, Waste Management (WM) confirmed a prior report from the Wall Street Journal that it would acquire medical waste services company Stericycle (SRCL). The news comes a week or so after Stericycle said it was exploring a sale of the company. Waste Management will acquire Stericycle for $62 per share in cash, or for an enterprise value of ~$7.2 billion after considering Stericycle’s net debt. The agreed-upon price represents a ~24% premium to the company’s 60-day volume weighted average price as of May 23, 2024, or the last trading day before the report that made public Stericycle was up for sale. There … Read more

Waste Management’s Pricing Power Is Fantastic, Sustainability Initiatives Are Noble

Image Source: TheInvertedFan By Brian Nelson, CFA Industry economics in the municipal solid waste industry are generally easy to understand. Industry pricing power essentially emanates from disposal operations. Waste generated, for example, must end up somewhere, and therefore whichever entity has the disposal operations has the power to set the bar with respect to pricing, directly or indirectly, from transfer facilities all the way through collections within certain regions. After all, garbage pick-up operators won’t be in business for long if they have to pay more to dispose of waste than they charge to pick it up. It may not be a glamourous business, but it is a very good one, and those with disposal operations tend to rule the … Read more

Trash Taker Republic Services’ Outlook Keeps Getting Better

Image Source: Republic Services By Brian Nelson, CFA Republic Services (RSG) reported solid second-quarter 2023 results July 31, and it raised its full-year 2023 guidance across the board. During the period ending June 30, 2023, total revenue advanced 9.1% with more than half coming via organic means, while GAAP earnings per share of $1.41 exceeded the consensus forecast by $0.10. Republic Services continues to experience strong pricing power, helping to drive double-digit EBITDA expansion in the quarter. Adjusted free cash flow came in at ~$1.265 billion through the first six months of the year. Earlier in July, Republic Services increased its dividend ~8% to a quarterly payout of $0.535 per share (was $0.495). Shares yield ~1.4% at the time of this … Read more

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Idea Republic Services Continues to Execute Well

Image: Republic Services has been executing nicely, growing its adjusted free cash flow at a 14% compound annual growth rate the past three years. Image Source: Republic Services By Brian Nelson, CFA Things are looking good at garbage hauler Republic Services. (RSG). The company reported fourth-quarter 2022 results a couple months ago that showed revenue growth of 19.7% and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.13. Both numbers came in better than expected. Roughly 8.3 percentage points of the firm’s top-line expansion in the quarter came organically, with core price comprising 7.4 percentage points of the organic increase. For the full year, Republic Services beat its guidance that called to grow adjusted free cash flow 15% and adjusted earnings per share … Read more

Waste Management’s Free Cash Flow Facing Pressure from Sustainability Initiatives

Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re huge fans of the environmental services industry. Solid waste simply must be disposed of somewhere in good times or bad times, and garbage haulers operate within an attractive oligopoly when it comes to disposal capacity (i.e. transfer stations, disposal facilities). Many players offer attractive dividend yields to boot. We include Republic Services (RSG) as an idea in our simulated newsletter portfolios, but Waste Management (WM) is yet another consideration. On December 8, Waste Management announced that its board gave the thumbs up for a 7.7% increase in its quarterly payout for 2023, to $0.70 per share. The hike to $2.80 per share on an annual basis implies a forward estimated dividend yield … Read more

Something New!

Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you’ll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you’ll see this table in our work going forward. We just wanted to let you know. We appreciate your membership very much!   ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.                          — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 At Valuentum, we take Buffett’s thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of … Read more

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!

In no particular order — the five winners… As a Chief Investment Strategist that oversees a significant amount of assets, it is vital to have unbiased research that we can lean on for decision making. Brian and the Valuentum team help provide a disciplined and fundamental approach to stock analysis without the typical Wall Street bias or conflicts of interest. The value we get on a monthly basis for having this detailed thought analysis and wise long-term thinking greatly outweighs the cost. We are very happy to have them on our short list of management we trust.  – Stephen H. (October 2022) —– I’d like you to know what my takeaways are from your research: 1) Be wary of capital … Read more

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!

Hi everyone: — We’re excited to say that we’re adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. — Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. — With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com. — You’ll notice that we’ve also tightened our focus at Valuentum during the past 12-24 months in advance of what has certainly become a more difficult 2022 than even some … Read more

Garbage Hauler Republic Services Beats Estimates, Raises Guidance

Image Shown: Shares of newsletter portfolio idea Republic Services Inc have put up strong performance so far year-to-date in the face of volatile capital markets. By Callum Turcan Garbage hauler Republic Services Inc (RSG) reported second quarter 2022 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The firm’s strong performance during the first half of this year gave management the confidence to boost Republic Services’ full-year guidance during its latest earnings update. We are huge fans of Republic Services’ stellar cash flow generating abilities, ample pricing power, and the “annuity-like” revenue streams it generates by offering essential services (various waste management services including collection, disposal, and more are required to maintain a healthy and well-functioning society). In May 2022, … Read more