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Valuentum’s Performance on Seeking Alpha

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Image Source: TipRanks, as of November 2016 By Valuentum Editorial Staff Seeking Alpha recently published the returns of certain ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ calls for each author. We applaud the firm’s ongoing dedication to transparency of its authors, if not by name, by track record. Valuentum Securities is an independent research firm headed by President Brian Nelson, CFA. Out of the 2,000+ articles Valuentum has published on Seeking Alpha, the Seeking Alpha study covered 567 of them, spanning from May 16, 2011, through June 25, 2014. Long ideas: 508; short ideas: 59. The articles in the study spanned all sectors and market capitalizations. The study pulled articles that were either tagged by Valuentum as ‘long’ ideas or ‘short’ ideas within the … Read more

M&A Environment Cracks: Sprint and Fox

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One of the most important concepts for any investor to accept is the following: price is different than value. Price is what you pay for shares of a company. Price is driven by buying and selling and the collective monetary-driven outcome of all investors’ opinions. Price can be influenced by dividend payments, news, rumors and other dynamics that influence the buying and selling of stock. Value, on the other, is based purely on future expectations of a company’s entire future free cash flow stream (and the firm’s non-operating, excess net cash on the balance sheet). Value considers a company’s competitive advantages (patents, intellectual property, network effect and the like) and compresses these complex qualitative variables into a future free cash … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

The M&A Environment Remains Robust

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Let’s take a look at a few deals that hit the wires recently – some proposed, some speculated. Analog Devices (ADI) Scoops Up Hittite Microwave (HITT) Norwood, MA (06/09/2014) – Analog Devices, a global leader in high-performance semiconductors for signal processing applications, and Hittite Microwave Corporation, an innovative designer and manufacturer of high performance integrated circuits, modules, subsystems and instrumentation for RF, microwave and millimeter wave applications, announced that the two companies have entered into a definitive agreement whereby ADI will acquire Hittite for $78 per share in cash. The closing price of Hittite’s common stock on June 6, 2014 was $60.56 per share. This agreement reflects a total enterprise value for Hittite of approximately $2 billion. ADI expects to … Read more

AT&T Is Not a Position in Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Portfolio

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Sometimes it’s difficult to entertain a variant perspective on a tried-and-true investment. But that’s what we think investors should do when they think about AT&T’s dividend growth potential. AT&T’s Valuentum Dividend Cushion score is below 1 (meaning that the sum of our expectations of the company’s future dividend payments and existing debt balance overwhelms the sum of its future expected free cash flow and existing cash balance). We don’t expect this telecom bellwether to cut its dividend anytime soon (especially given its shareholder base, which comprises mostly of investors holding shares for the dividend payment), but we think there are many other more attractive places for long-term dividend growth than AT&T’s equity. The historical track record of a company’s dividend … Read more

Verizon Posts Highest Adjusted EBITDA Margin in 8 years; Pro forma Debt Load Reduces Attractiveness of Idea

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On Tuesday, Verizon’s (VZ) fourth-quarter performance showed us why we had been considering the firm for inclusion in the Dividend Growth Newsletter. The company experienced revenue growth across all strategic areas (84% of business), showcasing 3.4% year-over-year expansion. The most recent quarter marked the fifth consecutive period of at least 8% service revenue year-over-year growth. The communication giant’s strong cost management controls sent its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin to the highest levels in 8 years (34.9%), a very impressive showing. Wireless segment EBITDA jumped more than 22% from last year’s quarter. Verizon’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.66 was also impressive, coming in nearly 74% higher than the level posted in the same period a year ago. For all of 2013, the … Read more

SoftBank Reported to Be Exploring a Deal for Sprint to Scoop Up T-Mobile

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On Friday, Bloomberg reported that SoftBank is exploring a deal for Sprint (S) to scoop up the majority of T-Mobile US (TMUS). The news outlet reported that SoftBank has discussed financing a bid with as many as six banks, including Credit Suisse, Mizuho, and Goldman Sachs. The banks are reported to be the same ones that backed the SoftBank-Sprint tie-up. According to Bloomberg’s sources: The plan would be to take control of T-Mobile by paying cash for the 67 percent stake owned by Deutsche Telekom AG…Sprint would then be integrated with T-Mobile, combining the third- and fourth-largest U.S. wireless carriers. Deutsche Telekom has said that it’s prepared to sell its $16 billion stake in T-Mobile, which has mostly been an … Read more

Verizon’s Investment Grade Credit Rating May Be Challenged

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On Thursday, Verizon (VZ) reported better than expected top- and bottom-line performance in its third quarter, which showed impressive subscriber additions and healthy iPhone sales. We continue to evaluate Verizon for addition to the portfolio of our Dividend Growth Newsletter, though we note its pursuit of Verizon Wireless has complicated matters quite a bit (given the outsize debt load it will take on). We’d like to see how the financials shake-out post-transaction, as there are quite a few moving parts that will negatively impact the firm’s Valuentum Dividend Cushion score (and potentially challenge its investment-grade rating). Verizon added 1.1 million net retail wireless connections and 927,000 net retail postpaid connections in the period, leading to quarter-end marks of 101.2 million total … Read more

Finisar Sees Margins Surge on Telecom Demand

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After posting a strong end to fiscal year 2013, fiber-optics maker Finisar (click ticker for report: ) registered fantastic results for its fiscal 2014 first quarter Thursday. The firm set an all-time quarterly revenue record of $266 million, up 9.3% sequentially and exceeding consensus estimates. Earnings per share on a non-GAAP basis soared 55% year-over-year to $0.31 per share, in-line with consensus expectations. The boom in telecom carriers like AT&T (click ticker for report: ), Sprint (click ticker for report: ), and T-Mobile (TMUS) investing in 4G LTE technology helped lift demand during the first quarter. Telecom had been an area of weakness during the firm’s fourth quarter. CEO Eitan Gertel added some commentary on the products driving first-quarter strength … Read more

Rising Rates Spur Verizon-Vodafone Deal

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Although financing isn’t fully secured yet, earlier this week Verizon (click ticker for report: ) and Vodafone (click ticker for report: ) agreed to a $130 billion deal for Verizon to acquire Vodafone’s 45% stake in Verizon Wireless. The deal values Verizon Wireless at nearly $290 billion (or nearly 10 times EBITDA), and it could immediately boost earnings per share by 2%-10%. Though this is certainly a large deal, we think Verizon acted quickly to capitalize on interest rates that have moved sharply to the upside in recent months (it didn’t want to wait for a further increase, which may have made the deal cost-prohibitive). As we noted in our prior discussion of the deal, rising rates and a declining … Read more