PSX

October Dividend Growth Newsletter Introduction

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Dear Member, The month of September represented some tough sledding for the markets, and we think things will get worse before they get better. If you missed our write up on the seven reasons why we think we’re due for a fall, please be sure to catch up on the piece here. We made a number of changes to the Dividend Growth portfolio since the release of the previous edition of the newsletter. Let’s make sure you didn’t miss anything. For one, yesterday, we added S&P 500 SPDR put option contracts to the portfolio to protect the large gains. Specifically, we added protection in the form of 5 put option contracts on the S&P 500 (SPY), with November 22 expiration … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending May 9

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 9. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AAON (AAON): now $0.13 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.10. Ametek (AME): now $0.09 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.06. Argo Group (AGII): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Arsenal Energy (AEYIF): now $0.065 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.06. Assurant (AIZ): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Autoliv (ALV): now $0.54 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.52. Baker Hughes (BHI): now … Read more

The Best Ideas for 2014 and Beyond: Part II

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A portion of this article is excerpted from the January 2014 edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter. Valuentum has two actively-managed portfolios: a Best Ideas portfolio and a Dividend Growth portfolio. Each portfolio has different goals and strategies. The Best Ideas portfolio seeks to find firms that have good value and good momentum characteristics and typically holds them from a Valuentum Buying Index rating of a 9 or 10 to a rating of a 1 or 2. The goal of the portfolio is to generate a positive return each year and to exceed the performance of a broad market benchmark. The Dividend Growth portfolio seeks to find underpriced dividend growth gems that generate phenomenal levels of cash flow and have … Read more

Share Buybacks in Vogue for Portfolio Holdings

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Showcasing strong cash flow generation, portfolio holdings Union Pacific (UNP) and Phillips 66 (PSX) have issued new buyback programs recently. On November 21, Union Pacific announced a new share repurchase authorization of up to 60 million common shares by 2017. The new four year authorization allows for the repurchase of roughly 13% of current shares outstanding. On December 6, Phillips 66 approved a new $2 billion share repurchase program. Since the third quarter of 2012, Phillips 66 has authorized a total of $5 billion in share repurchases and has increased dividends from $0.20 per share to $0.39 cents per share on a quarterly basis. Though we tend to prefer immediate dividend growth instead of buyback initiatives for most dividend growth portfolio … Read more

Phillips 66’s 3Q Reveals Difficult Refining Environment

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Phillips 66’s third-quarter results, issued last Wednesday, revealed significantly weaker worldwide refining margins, as expected. The company’s third quarter earnings fell to $535 million, down from adjusted earnings of $1.9 billion in the third-quarter of 2012. Results in the company’s ‘Refining’ segment remain highly volatile. Phillips 66’s ‘Midstream’ segment generated earnings of $148 million compared with adjusted earnings of $88 million in last year’s period. Third-quarter earnings in Phillips 66’s ‘Chemicals’ segment came in at $262 million, down modestly from adjusted earnings of $275 million in the year-ago period. The company’s quarterly earnings for its ‘Marketing and Specialties’ segment totaled $240 million, up from $98 million in the same quarter last year. Corporate and other expenses were roughly flat during the … Read more

Phillips 66 Hikes Dividend 25%!

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Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Phillips 66 (click ticker for report: ) announced on Tuesday that it would raise its quarterly dividend 25% to $0.39 per share. This equates to an annual dividend of $1.56 per share, and an annual yield of 2.6% at current levels. We applaud the move, though we aren’t surprised, as we have long believed that the firm has excellent dividend safety and growth potential. In our view, the longer-term fundamental story for Phillips 66 and the broader industry continues to look positive as refining capacity remains constrained and more advantaged crude flows through North American pipelines. At this time, Philips 66 remains our favorite idea in the refinery space and a holding in the portfolio … Read more

Headline Risk Entering the Market

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The summer months have been relatively uneventful, with the exception of concerns relating to the Federal Reserve’s coming tapering of its bond-buying program and quibbles between hedge fund giants over a company that makes protein shakes—we’re talking about Herbalife (HLF) in the latter example. Even the sequester proved to be a largely underwhelming event so far through 2013. As a result, the market has focused on fundamentals, awarding strong performance and punishing poor performance (almost irrespective of valuation parameters). However, the market remains fully valued at current levels, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio on S&P 500 companies in-line with its 10-year average at 14.1 times, and the distribution of our Valuentum Buying Index ratings tilting decidedly negative. The forward price-to-earnings … Read more

Exxon Misses, ConocoPhillips Raises Production, and Shell Writes Down North American Shale Assets

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As Valuentum members are aware, we think the oil majors each have their own respective strengths and weaknesses. Exxon Mobil (XOM) has consistently earned the best economic returns (ROCE) among peers, but its stock price is rich, trading at the high end of our fair value estimate range (at the time of this writing). ConocoPhillips (COP) continues to raise its production forecasts and is the second-best value-creator (ROCE) in the group. However, Chevron (CVX) has the strongest balance sheet among peers (it has the only net cash position), and by extension, is better-positioned to raise its dividend during the troughs of future energy-price cycles. Meanwhile, BP (BP) continues to deal with the aftermath of its well-publicized 2010 oil spill in … Read more