PBJ

Reviewing PepsiCo’s Latest Earnings

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Image Source: PepsiCo Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Maker of snacks and sugary beverages, PepsiCo Inc (PEP) posted second-quarter earnings for fiscal 2019 on July 9 that were positively received by the market. PepsiCo reaffirmed 2019 guidance calling for 4% annual organic revenue growth, a 1% decline in core constant EPS (3% decline when including an expected 200 basis point headwind from foreign currency movements) versus 2018 levels, and ~$4.5 billion in free cash flow generation. Shares of PEP yield 2.9% as of this writing and we like PepsiCo’s dividend coverage. However, please note that the company expects to spend $5.0 billion on dividends and $3.0 billion on share buybacks this year. Forecasted free cash flows will only … Read more

PepsiCo Fights off Forex Headwinds as it Gets Ready to Take on Amazon

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Image Source: PepsiCo Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan While foreign currency headwinds are proving quite troublesome, PepsiCo continues to post strong organic growth that helped drive its outperformance during the first quarter of 2019. That strong performance will be needed as Amazon gets ready to enter the energy beverage arena. PepsiCo Inc’s (PEP) shares shot up to record highs on April 17 after posting first quarter results that clearly impressed the market. With shares now trading around $127 as of this writing, the beverage and snack giant yields 2.9% with decent dividend coverage going forward. The company beat consensus top and bottom-line estimates while reaffirming 2019E guidance, which signals to the market that management is confident in PepsiCo’s … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

The Inflating Index Fund Bubble

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Image Source: Mac.Else von Berlin The investment industry is changing fast, and we’re happy to be an instrument for change. We’ve been clamoring to make index funds free for a long time, and we’re glad to see it finally happen. Let’s cover the implications of indiscriminate buying regardless of price with the observation that the number of publicly-traded companies is vastly shrinking. How long will the inflating index fund bubble last? By Brian Nelson, CFA Those that know Valuentum know that we stand up for the individual investor, and we work our tails off to make sure that we get the individual investor the very best of information and informed judgment. The CFA Institute via its Enterprising blog showcases a … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

We Said Consumer Staples Would Underperform

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Consumer Staples Stocks Underperform — We think investors are wising up to the risks of consumer staples stocks, and increasing risk-free rates seem to already be complicating the investment decision-making process for many investors. Consumer staples equities in the S&P 500 are currently trading at ~19.4 times forward 12-month earnings, well above their sub-17 times 10-year trailing average. We believe investors will continue to swap out of these steady-eddy, but overpriced, gems in the near term, in favor of higher-beta commodity and energy-oriented companies as the market sets up to surge in 2017. We have been warning about the tipping point in Treasury yields and implications on dividend-paying consumer staples equities for some time. – Brian Nelson CFA, December 2016, … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Systemic Risk

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Image Source: Maximo Santana We believe the next crisis will not be a banking crisis, but one of a breakdown in market structure. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The volatility of US equity markets has simply been incredible of late. What a change of tune from the past 12-18 months. Many investors are growing more concerned about the health of US sovereign credit and implications on borrowing costs, the benchmark Treasury yield, and further, such implications on long-run equity values (rising interest rates in stock valuation models reduces intrinsic value, all else equal). Moody’s has been warning about the deteriorating health of the US as a result of tax reform, pointing to “at least a $1.5 trillion deficit … Read more