Oracle Appears to Be Front-Runner for TikTok’s US Assets, Though There Are Caveats

Image Shown: Shares of Dividend Growth Newsletter holding Oracle Corporation jumped higher on September 14 as the tech giant is reportedly getting closer to acquiring TikTok’s operations in the US and potentially elsewhere, though there are a lot of unknowns at this point. By Callum Turcan Reportedly, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) has submitted a proposal to become the “trusted technology partner” of the popular yet controversial social media app TikTok, particularly at TikTok’s US operations (and possibility some other countries as well). TikTok is currently owned by Beijing-based ByteDance. We will likely know more about a potential deal sooner rather than later, though there are a lot of unknowns at this point as it does not appear Oracle’s proposal is a … Read more

Oracle’s Transformation Continues

Image Shown: Shares of Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Oracle Corporation are on an upward trajectory after the tech giant reported that its strategic transition towards cloud-based offerings was going well during its latest earnings report. By Callum Turcan On September 10, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) reported first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended August 31, 2020) and we liked what we saw. In constant currency terms, the company’s ‘cloud services and license support’ and ‘cloud license and on-premise license’ segments reported year-over-year sales growth of 2% and 8%, respectively. We appreciate that Oracle’s cloud-oriented businesses are finally starting to gain some real traction in this lucrative and hypercompetitive market. Additionally, Oracle’s strong performance occurred in the face of the ongoing … Read more

Dividend Growth Selection in a Low Yield Environment

Dear members: — John Burr Williams’ historical work The Theory of Investment Value, published in 1938, set the foundation for the widely known discounting mechanism inherent within equity valuation frameworks today. His text is often credited with the origins of the dividend discount model. Though Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation identifies enterprise valuation, or the discounted cash flow model (the free cash flow to the firm model, to be precise) as the causal driver of values and prices, the concepts are very similar. Stock values and prices are a function of future expectations. — Today, with highly accommodative Fed and Treasury policy, interest rates are ultra-low, and even yields on junk-rated debt have plummeted. For example, Ball Corp (BLL), a junk-rated credit (jargon … Read more

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years

Dear members: — We’re finally getting a pause in the rapid ascent of the markets on September 3rd. Though headlines may look scary and momentum/volatility investors could start to pile on to the downside, a modest retracement is actually a good thing. We continue to focus on the long haul with our processes, and we’re viewing the sell-off as profit taking, for the most part. — In the near term, the markets will also have to digest some speculators betting on mean reversion between “value” (cyclical) versus “growth” (secular), but we maintain the view that the value-versus-growth conversation is largely nonsense (see block quotes below), and mean reversion is something akin to the gamblers’ fallacy, in my humble opinion. Investors should also continue … Read more

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TikTok Up for Grabs

Image Shown: ByteDance may be forced to sell the US operations of TikTok, and there are plenty of potential suitors out there with deep pockets. By Callum Turcan On August 27, Walmart Inc (WMT) announced it was in discussions with Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) about acquiring the US operations of popular short-video-oriented social firm TikTok from Beijing-based ByteDance. Given that Microsoft noted back on August 2 it was continuing discussions concerning a potential deal for TikTok’s US, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian operations, it is likely Walmart would be interested in acquiring an economic interest in those assets as well. Here is what Walmart had to say in its brief statement (emphasis added): The way TikTok has integrated e-commerce and advertising … Read more

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ALERT: Newsletter Portfolio Changes; Investing Is Simple, Not Easy

Changes to the Newsletter portfolios Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio BRK.B: 8-13% à 3.5%-5% AAPL: 4.2%-6% à 6.5%-8% MSFT: 4.2%-6% à 6.5%-8% Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio BKLN: 4.25%-6.5% à 0% KMI: 3.25%-4.25% à 0% LMT: 3.25%-4.5% à 6.25%-8.5% ORCL: 4.25%-6.5% à 6.25%-8.5% AAPL: 2.75%-4% à 3.25%-4.5% MSFT: 2.75%-4% à 6.25%-8.5% —– Hi everyone: Trust you are doing great. I wanted to let you know of a few newsletter portfolio changes we’re making today. In the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, we are reducing the position in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) to the weighting range of 3.5%-5% from 8%-13%. Though we think Warren Buffett is getting back on track now that he has dumped the airlines and many of the banks, we no longer … Read more

Apple Surges Higher Ahead of Stock Split

Image Shown: Shares of Apple Inc have staged an impressive rally since bouncing off their March 2020 lows, with AAPL up ~46% year-to-date as of this writing on August 3. We added shares of Apple back to the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios on June 12, 2020. Later on this August, Apple intends on completing a four-for-one stock split. By Callum Turcan We added Apple Inc (AAPL) back to both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios on June 12, 2020 (link here). Companies that are supported by secular growth tailwinds and pristine balance sheets, such as Apple, are well-positioned to deal with the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Shares of AAPL have surged significantly higher … Read more

IBM’s Cloud Transition Continues

Image Source: International Business Machines Corporation – 2019 Annual Report By Callum Turcan On July 20, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) reported second quarter 2020 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Most of the market’s excitement centered on IBM’s ‘Cloud & Cognitive Software’ segment posting year-over-year revenue growth of ~3% in the second quarter while its company-wide GAAP revenue declined by ~5% year-over-year, though initial gains in IBM’s share price faded away during regular trading hours on July 21. In the earnings press release, IBM noted its “total cloud revenue” grew by 30% year-over-year last quarter. Shares of IBM are trading near their fair value estimate of $129 as of this writing, indicating that shares of IBM … Read more