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Creditor Risk Aversion Rises Considerably in Energy, Metals & Mining Sectors

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Not all is well with commodity producers. Moody’s (MCO) has been very quick to point out that “the latest plunge by base metals prices and the renewed slide (in) crude oil prices are more ominous for corporate credit than was the earlier plummet by crude oil prices amid relatively steady industrial metals prices.” The credit rating agency’s industrial metals price index has dropped more than 10% in the past 20 days ending July 9, reaching levels not seen since the depths of the Financial Crisis in 2009. Moody’s industrial metals price index has fallen an incredible 25% since the same time stamp last year, something we’ve been witnessing anecdotally. The International Energy Agency recently warned that the bottom in crude oil … Read more

Nelson’s Quick Thoughts on Midstream Energy MLPs

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Image Source: Roy Luck Nelson’s Take We continue to be quite cautious on the midstream MLP business model (AMLP), including Energy Transfer Partners’ (ETP), given its extreme capital-market dependency (i.e. the continuous need for new equity and debt capital), and we maintain our view that the group is 1) inextricably tied to energy resource pricing, if not directly (5%-10%) than indirectly through the financial health of their upstream customer bases and 2) the credit markets via ongoing project-financing requirements and outsize debt loads. Many in the group continue to be capital-intensive, highly-leveraged entities that have little cash cushions on the books to handle exogenous shocks. Most, if not all, generate traditional free cash flow (CFO less all capex) shortfalls, after … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

Midstreams Going C-Corp, Should SEC Disallow the Measure Distributable Cash Flow?

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Key Takeaways It’s important to differentiate the concept of enterprise free cash flow valuation and the idea of capital-market dependence. The uncertainty of the MLP business model remains, as it is clear operators are shunning the MLP business model preferring C-Corps instead. According to work from Global X Funds, now 40% of the energy infrastructure market cap consists of C-Corps, up considerably from just 15% at the end of 2014. Though many simplifications have come with implied distribution cuts, the primary reason for the rise in C-Corps across the midstream space has been the rationalizing of excess MLP valuations to enterprise free cash flow assessments. We encourage the SEC to consider disallowing the use of distributable cash flow, as it … Read more

The Dividend Cushion Ratio: Unadjusted Is Less Subjective, Adjusted Is More Subjective

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  Image Source: Mike Lawrence Question: I’m a subscriber. I’m looking at your Dividend Report for Enterprise Product Partners (EPD). It says your Valuentum Adjusted Dividend Cushion ratio for EPD is 1.8 (a ratio that includes future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), but several lines below it says the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, which is your regular normal ratio (a ratio that does not include future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), is 0.22. Please explain the difference between the two ratios, and what is considered a good ratio for the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, what is an excellent score, what is neutral and what is poor? Also, how much relative importance should … Read more

More First-Quarter Earnings Flying In: GM, Ford, Big Oil and More

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Image Source: General Motors GM’s dividend yield and valuation opportunity are incredible, while Microsoft’s free cash flow generation and solid net cash position speak to tremendous dividend strength. We liked what we saw out of Union Pacific during the first quarter, and you have to be aware of Big Oil’s bloated balance sheets. All of this and more included in this piece. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s puzzling to think about, but with the first-quarter 2017 US GDP print today, April 28, coming in at just 0.7%, below expectations, one wouldn’t think the stock market is near all-time highs. Interestingly, in the report, too, the weakest area came from real consumer spending, which registered a pace of growth as poor … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

Seeking Balance: What’s Happening in the Crude Oil and Iron Ore Markets

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Image Source: Sollven Melindo Commodity prices are notoriously volatile as the global markets often struggle to maintain a sustainable balance of supply-demand. Let’s take a look at some recent developments and coming events that are impacting the prices of crude oil and iron ore. By Kris Rosemann We’re not rushing to add any commodity-based exposure at the moment. We have some of course – but we’re not looking to add more to the newsletter portfolios. For starters, the iron ore pricing market appears to be setting itself up for another period of pain, and we’re preaching serious levels of caution for those considering the space as iron-ore prices have already begun to descend from the peak of the puzzling early-2017 … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 4

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 4. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 1st Source (SRCE): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Allied Motion Technologies (AMOT): now $0.03 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.025. American Campus Communities (ACC): now $0.46 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.44. Apple (AAPL): now $0.73 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.63. Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.21. Artesian Resources (ARTNA): now $0.2387 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more