MSFT

Trade Worries Back on the Table

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Image Source: Michael Vadon We think investors shouldn’t overreact, but we didn’t have two world wars in the last century because leaders of superpowers “got along” nicely. By Brian Nelson, CFA News that President Trump is asking to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods on which to levy a 10% tariff has the markets a bit jittery. China’s Ministry of Commerce responded that if the US moves forward with the tariffs, it would take “comprehensive quantitative and qualitative measures and retaliate forcefully.” We expect news regarding trade tensions between the US (SPY, DIA) and China (FXI, MCHI) to only intensify in the coming weeks, as the White House seeks to pursue what is likely game theory to achieve better … Read more

Visa!

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Image shown: The performance of Visa since it was added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has a habit of identifying outperforming stock ideas. By Brian Nelson, CFA The Valuentum team has put together an incredible track record during the past several years, and frankly, if you haven’t already, you have to read through the analysis of the history of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. It goes into why we think the way we do and provides a variety of references to our processes and methodology. The analysis can be downloaded at the following link (pdf): https://valuentum.com/downloads/20180530/download For the team to achieve what it was able to do, despite a ~25% cash “position” in … Read more

Microsoft Wins GitHub Over Alphabet

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Image Source: Microsoft deal presentation Microsoft has agreed to acquire GitHub for $7.5 billion. Competing bids may have driven the price tag higher, but Microsoft’s financial flexibility remains top-notch. By Kris Rosemann On June 4, simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Microsoft (MSFT) agreed to acquire privately-held GitHub, one of the world’s leading software development platforms, for $7.5 billion in stock. We like that Microsoft isn’t taking on more debt related to this transaction, and in light of Microsoft’s buyback program, the deal is more cash-like than anything else. GitHub will continue to operate independently in providing an open platform for developers after the deal closes, which is expected by the end of 2018, similar to Microsoft’s course of action … Read more

Microsoft Now $100+ Per Share

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Image shown: Microsoft’s performance relative to an ETF tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) since the beginning of 2012, the inception of the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Almost every dividend-related presentation we made around the country, we talked about how much we liked Microsoft as a dividend growth idea. The stock was originally added to the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio at inception at ~$26 per share, and we started the company out as an 8% position! It means the world to us to let you know that Microsoft’s stock has now surpassed $100 per share! Seriously – could we possibly have done any better with our top dividend growth idea out of the gates? By Brian Nelson, CFA I … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

The Most Important Topic in Stock Investing

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President of Equity Research, Brian Nelson, discusses why price vs. value is the paramount consideration in stock investing. Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. Today, I wanted to talk about a number of investment concepts that I think are absolutely paramount for every investor to know.  The very first concept is price versus value, and this one is paramount to any investment process. Now I’m not just giving this lip service–this is just one of the core concepts of investing, equity investing. The reality of stock investing is that each company has a present value of future free cash flows that it generates, and those future free cash flows roll up to a fair value, the … Read more

Dividend Growth Ideas Microsoft and Intel Deliver Strong Free Cash Flow

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Microsoft and Intel continue to deliver robust levels of free cash flow, which are core drivers of their respective dividend strength. By Kris Rosemann Microsoft’s Commercial Cloud Driving Growth Simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Microsoft (MSFT) turned in a solid fiscal third quarter report April 26 as total revenue advanced 16% from the year-ago period, operating income advanced 23%, and diluted earnings per share jumped 36%. Commercial cloud revenue growth of 58% was a key driver of the strong top-line expansion with strong growth in the US, Western Europe, and the UK, and the quarter marked the 10th consecutive quarter in which Azure posted 90%+ revenue growth. The company’s operating margin expanded by two percentage points from the comparable … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

IBM’s Free Cash Flow Short of Expected Annual Pace

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Image Source: andrew cooke With other fantastic ideas in technology, we see no reason to be interested in IBM’s shares. By Brian Nelson, CFA Readers that are interested in bottom-fishing in IBM’s (IBM) shares may have a far greater risk appetite than we do. IBM is no longer the “Big Blue (Chip)” that it once was, and while its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2018 weren’t bad, its outlook wasn’t what the market had been expecting. The $0.06 quarterly beat on the bottom line during its first quarter of 2018 didn’t translate into raised guidance for 2018, with IBM reiterating its non-GAAP diluted earnings per share target of at least $13.80, with the GAAP-equivalent mark coming in at $11.58. Expectations … Read more

Market Overreacts to Oracle’s Cloud Outlook

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Image Shown: The performance of Oracle since the March 2009 bottom. By Brian Nelson, CFA On March 19, Oracle (ORCL) reported in-line fiscal third-quarter results that showed revenue advancing 6.1%, operating income increasing 15.2%, and net income before income taxes jumping 22.3%. The quarter was impacted by a large one-time impact from the U.S. 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, making year-over-year comparisons on an after-tax basis less meaningful. The company’s fiscal third-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share number of $0.83 translates to 20% growth, and thus far during the fiscal year, non-GAAP earnings-per-share has advanced 16%. Oracle continues to execute well on its growth initiatives. However, the market was looking for a bit more with its outlook, as shares were … Read more