MSFT

Microsoft’s In-Line Cloud Growth and Elevated Capex Weigh on Shares

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On January 28, Microsoft (MSFT) reported strong second quarter fiscal 2026 results (ended December 31, 2025) with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecast. Revenue of $81.3 billion beat consensus of $80.3 billion and increased 17% year-over-year (up 15% in constant currency), while operating income of $38.3 billion increased 21% year-over-year (up 19% in constant currency). Non-GAAP net income was $30.9 billion in the quarter, increasing 23% year-over-year (up 21% in constant currency). Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $4.14, increasing 24% (up 21% in constant currency) and exceeding the consensus forecast of $3.92. Management had the following to say about the results: We are only at … Read more

Microsoft’s First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results Solid

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 29, Microsoft (MSFT) reported excellent first quarter fiscal 2026 results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in ahead of expectations. Revenue increased 18% (up 17% in constant currency), while operating income jumped 24% (up 22% in constant currency). Non-GAAP net income was $30.8 billion, increasing 22% (up 21% in constant currency), while non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $4.13, increasing 23% (up 21% in constant currency). Management had the following to say about the results: Our planet-scale cloud and AI factory, together with Copilots across high value domains, is driving broad diffusion and real-world impact. It’s why we continue to increase our investments in AI across both … Read more

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Your Role as a Choice Architect

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“As we’ve shown time and time again, you don’t need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen.” — Dear members: — Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge (1), co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. — A good example of a choice architect might be a cafeteria worker that has to decide how to organize the food in a buffet line … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 19

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 19. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Adamas Trust (ADAM): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Apartment Investment (AIV): now $2.23 per share special dividend, was $0.60. Banco Macro (BMA): now $0.3665 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.3658. CareRx (CRRX:CA): now CAD 0.02 per share quarterly dividend. Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation 8.250 CUM PFD B (CHMI.PR.B): now $0.6523 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.6413. Cross Timbers Royalty Trust … Read more

Microsoft Puts Up Awesome Fiscal Fourth Quarter Results

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On July 30, Microsoft (MSFT) reported awesome fiscal fourth quarter results with both revenue and GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecast. Revenue of $76.4 billion increased 18% (up 17% in constant currency), better than consensus of $73.8 billion, while operating income increased 23% (up 22% in constant currency). Net income increased 24% (up 22% in constant currency), while diluted earnings per share was $3.65, up 24% and 22% in constant currency, and better than consensus of $3.38 per share. Management had the following to say about the quarter: Cloud and AI is the driving force of business transformation across every industry and sector. We’re innovating across the tech stack to help … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Microsoft’s Cloud Business Performing Better Than Expected

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Image: Microsoft’s shares have held up well in this volatile market environment. By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 30, Microsoft (MSFT) reported solid third quarter fiscal 2025 results with revenue and GAAP earnings per share coming in higher than what the Street was looking for. Revenue increased 13% (15% in constant currency), and the cloud computing giant leveraged that increase in the top line to a 16% increase in operating income (19% in constant currency). In the quarter, net income increased 18% (19% in constant currency), while diluted earnings per share also increased 18% (19% in constant currency). Management had the following to say about the results: Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more