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Catching the Bottom?

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Image shown: The depths of how far the S&P 500 (SPY) has fallen more recently, and the timing of the decision to move to being “fully invested” in simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.   No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios. This article was sent to members via email January 9. That email can be found at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA On the evening of December 26, we emailed members that we were moving to “fully invested” in both the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. First of all, please let me apologize. I wanted to stay in front of members during one of the most volatile times … Read more

Markets Up Big; Upside Volatility

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Image shown: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August 2017. The index has broken through support and is now bouncing back to resistance. By Brian Nelson, CFA Good morning everyone, Are you watching these markets? This is incredible. The Dow finished down 660 points yesterday (briefly dropping 700 points), and today, the Dow is currently trading up 600 points at the time of this writing. Granted, there was Apple’s (AAPL) poor first-quarter 2019 guidance yesterday and the strong jobs report today, but this volatility is not “normal,” no matter what others are saying. A couple announcements up front. For those that already ordered our book Value Trap, I will send you the pdf download to your email address just to make sure … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Hasbro’s Top Line Drops Amid Ongoing Challenges

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Hasbro continues to face the fallout of the Toys ‘R’ Us bankruptcy earlier this year, as well as challenges from the rapidly changing retail environment and retail inventory clearing. Management remains optimistic regarding a return to profitable growth in 2019, however. By Kris Rosemann Simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Hasbro (HAS) saw its shares face selling pressure following a disappointing third quarter report October 22 as its top line declined 12% as reported on a year-over-year basis due to the temporary loss of Toys ‘R’ Us revenue, a rapidly-changing retail environment, clearing through retail inventory, and currency headwinds. Management noted retail inventory was down significantly in the US and Europe, and it is working to clear excess inventory by … Read more

Dividend Growth: Capital Preservation Remains Key

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Image Shown: Since mid-June 2015, the performance of an ETF tracking the midstream MLP industry (AMLP) has collapsed while the performance of an ETF tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) industry has surged. By The Valuentum Team We think one of the things we do better than most is in our work supporting capital preservation. We have a knack for parsing out risk and explaining that risk clearly in advance to our members. A lot of investors tend to be buy-and-hold as they reinvest dividends and capture compounding over time, and this is wonderful. But it is okay to change your mind, too. It is okay to factor in new information and to be somewhat active in your equity portfolio construction, … Read more

Valuentum’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Distribution

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The weighted average cost of capital is one of the most subjective measures in corporate finance, but it is also one of the most important ones. “The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates…If interest rates are destined to be at low levels…It makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield….Any investment is worth all the cash you’re going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back. The discounting back is affected by whether you choose interests rates like those of Japan or interest rates like those we had in 1982…When we had 15 percent short-term rates in 1982, it was silly to pay … Read more

Hasbro Shares Jump Despite Transient Challenges

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Image Source: William Warby Simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter idea Hasbro turned in another lackluster quarterly report, but its second-quarter results were better than expected as the company continues to work through a variety of what it believes are transient issues. By Kris Rosemann Hasbro (HAS) continues to face obstacles in the form of the liquidation of major customer Toys ‘R’ Us in the US and other key markets and a rapidly evolving European retail landscape, but management continues to expect to return to growth in 2019 as it adapts to the changing operating environment in Europe and fills the consumer demand void created by the departure of Toys ‘R’ Us, “Toys ‘R’ Us Liquidation News Transient to Toy Makers.” We … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

Market Not Overreacting to Hasbro’s Miss; Shares Up

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Toy giant Hasbro turned in a poor first-quarter report April 23, but the market is not overreacting as the issues weighing on its performance are largely transient, in our view. By Kris Rosemann Simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Hasbro’s (HAS) first-quarter 2018 results, released April 23, weren’t great as the liquidation of Toys “R” Us in the US and UK and retail inventory overhang in Europe weighed on its top line. The issues impacting its business are not reflective of the underlying health of the business, in our view, and the market has largely recognized this view, too, with its share price moving meaningfully positive intraday April 23 following a fairly considerable premarket dip. Management continues to expect 2018 … Read more