The Correction: Draghi; Chip, Telecom Warnings; Oil and MLPs

The equity markets have been under significant pressure the past few weeks, and we think there is further downside to come. Our view is that the equity markets will be lower than today’s levels within the next 6-18 months, if not tomorrow or next week or next month. We’ve taken profits on cyclicals, and we’ve already closed out the put option hedges in both portfolios for a substantial gain (the latest transaction alert email can be accessed here). Europe appears to be in a giant mess again. The region hadn’t been strong by any stretch of the imagination, but we recently picked up material weakness during Ford’s (F) recent analyst day, which in part prompted us to take a very … Read more

The Correction: Protection Makes Sense

When our team thinks about members, the one thing we want for them is to make money from our service. This sometimes means that we’re a bit cautious at times. For example, taking profits on Ford (F), Precision Castparts (PCP), and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) a couple days ago was not an easy thing to do. They’ve been huge winners. From a fundamental standpoint, we still like the companies, but market conditions and valuations cannot be ignored. Just like the profit-taking, we also think it was prudent to add protection in the form of put option contracts to the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio in light of a number of factors. The put option contracts amount to ~1.5% … Read more

October Dividend Growth Newsletter Introduction

Dear Member, The month of September represented some tough sledding for the markets, and we think things will get worse before they get better. If you missed our write up on the seven reasons why we think we’re due for a fall, please be sure to catch up on the piece here. We made a number of changes to the Dividend Growth portfolio since the release of the previous edition of the newsletter. Let’s make sure you didn’t miss anything. For one, yesterday, we added S&P 500 SPDR put option contracts to the portfolio to protect the large gains. Specifically, we added protection in the form of 5 put option contracts on the S&P 500 (SPY), with November 22 expiration … Read more

Kinder Morgan Grows Leery of MLP Structure; Consolidates Holdings

Kinder Morgan is the largest midstream and the fourth-largest energy company (based on combined enterprise value) in North America. The entity owns an interest in or operates ~80,000 miles of pipelines and 180 terminals. The firm’s publicly-traded companies include Kinder Morgan (KMI), Dividend Growth portfolio holding Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP), Kinder Morgan Management (KMR) and El Paso Pipeline (EPB). KMI owns the general partner and limited partner interests in both KMP and EPB. KMP is one of the largest publicly traded pipeline master limited partnerships in America. KMR is a limited liability company and its only significant assets are the partnership units it owns in KMP. EPB is a publicly traded pipeline master limited partnership. — source The convoluted … Read more

Energy Transfer Partners’ Solid Distribution Coverage Ratio

By Brian Nelson, CFA We understand that to many dividend growth investors the dividend/distribution isn’t everything–it is the only thing. That’s why we spend a considerable amount of time assessing the health and growth potential of dividends/distributions. To us, a master limited partnership’s (MLP) distribution is inherently risky. One of my former colleagues at Morningstar, Jason Stevens, emphasized in an April 2013 research piece on the group what Valuentum has been telling investors for a while: Another implication of MLP distribution policies that is important to understand is the impact of high distribution payouts on MLPs’ capital spending. Unlike corporations, which can use retained earnings and excess cash for growth purposes, MLPs retain very little of the cash generated each … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending July 18

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 18. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Bassett Furniture (BSET): now $0.08 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.06. CIT Group (CIT): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Education Realty Trust (EDR): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.11. Fidelity Southern (LION): now $0.09 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.08. Goodyear (GT): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Greene County Bancorp (GCBC): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending April 18

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 18. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week CSX (CSX): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Discover Financial Services (DFS): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Donegal Group, Inc. (DGICA): now $0.1315 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1275. Kinder Morgan (KMI): now $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.41. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP): now $1.38 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.36. LyondellBasell Industries (LYB): now $0.70 per share quarterly … Read more

EXCLUSIVE ALERT: Addressing Kinder Morgan Energy Partners and the MLPs in General

There’s one thing for sure about Valuentum: as a member, you get the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. That’s why our members love us! We’re completely independent and completely tied to your best financial interests. You know we’ve never been shy about outlining the risks related to MLPs – for one, you don’t have to look far to see this warning (source) on the front page of every one of their 16-page reports (at the bottom): Firms in the oil and gas pipeline industry own or operate thousands of miles of pipelines and terminals—assets that are nearly impossible/uneconomical to replicate. Most companies act as a toll road and receive a fee for transporting natural gas, crude … Read more

Boardwalk Pipeline Highlights Unique Risks of MLPs

You can’t get far researching master limited partnerships (MLPs) on Valuentum’s website without encountering the following warning (source): Firms in the oil and gas pipeline industry own or operate thousands of miles of pipelines and terminals—assets that are nearly impossible/uneconomical to replicate. Most companies act as a toll road and receive a fee for transporting natural gas, crude oil and other refined products (and generally avoid commodity price risk). Though there is much to like, most constituents operate as master limited partnerships and pay out hefty distributions that can stretch their balance sheets. Additional unit issuance (dilution) has become common, and capital-market dependence is a key risk. We’re neutral on the group. We have a unique view of the business … Read more