KMI

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Kinder Morgan Expected to Capitalize on Natural Gas Demand

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On July 16, Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported mixed second quarter results with revenue beating the consensus forecast, but non-GAAP earnings per share coming in line with expectations. Second quarter net income attributable to KMI was $715 million, up 24% from the same period a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA advanced 6%, to $1.97 billion from the same period last year. Management had a lot to say about the quarterly results and outlook: With historic growing natural gas demand forecasts, a positive federal regulatory environment, and highly supportive federal permitting agencies, the future for our company is very bright. We will continue to reap the benefit of a business model structured around long-term take-or-pay, fee-based … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of April 18

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 18. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          ASML (ASML): now $1.92 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.57. Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (CHP.UN:CA): now CAD 0.0642 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.0641. Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF): now $0.8830 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.7811. Companhia Paranaense de Energia – COPEL (ELPC): now $0.1172 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Kinder Morgan Is Now Covering Cash Dividends Paid with Free Cash Flow

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Image: Kinder Morgan’s shares have been on a tear after the midstream energy giant reports healthier free cash flow that covers cash dividends paid. By Brian Nelson, CFA On January 22, Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported fourth quarter results that missed the consensus forecast for both the top and bottom lines. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter of $2.1 billion was 7% higher on a year-over-year basis, while net income attributable to Kinder Morgan came in at $667 million, up from $594 million in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.32 in the quarter, up 14% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The company approved a cash dividend of $0.2875 per share for the fourth quarter, which is a … Read more

Exxon Mobil’s Permian Assets Performing Well, Structural Cost Reductions on Track

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Image Source: Exxon Mobil By Brian Nelson, CFA Exxon Mobil (XOM) recently reported better than expected third quarter results, though performance faced some headwinds from lower industry refining margins and reduced natural gas prices. Total revenues and other income fell 0.8% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, while earnings excluding identified items (non-GAAP) fell to $8.6 billion from $9.2 billion in the year-ago period. Diluted earnings per common share came in at $1.92 versus $2.25 in the same period a year ago. Management had the following to say about the quarter: We delivered one of our strongest third quarters in a decade. Our industry-leading results continue to demonstrate how our enterprise-wide transformation is improving the structural earnings power of … Read more

Kinder Morgan’s Dividend Is Much Healthier These Days

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Image: Kinder Morgan’s shares have done quite well thanks to improved free cash flow performance. By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 16, pipeline giant Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported weaker than expected third quarter results, with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in lower than what the Street was looking for. Adjusted EBITDA expanded 2% in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis, while net income attributable to KMI came in at $625 million, higher than the $532 million mark it posted in the year-ago quarter. Third quarter earnings per share was up 17% compared to the same period last year, but adjusted earnings per share of $0.25 and distributable cash flow of $0.49 per share were flat on … Read more

An Important Measure of Leverage for Dividend-Growth and Income-Oriented Shareholders, One That Is Dividend-Adjusted

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As more and more investors rely on company dividends for income, dividends, in our view, have become more debt-like commitments in nature, especially from the perspective of dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders. Years ago, we rolled out a measure of financial leverage that considers both the company’s debt and the present value of its future expected cash dividend obligations, which, in the eyes of die-hard dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders, may be implicitly assumed to be debt-like commitments in substance. We think this leverage ratio can be used in conjunction with the Dividend Cushion ratio to gain additional insight into the dividend-paying financial health of an entity. Note: There is often great confusion with respect to published measures of financial leverage, and … Read more