JCP

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Retail Margins Weighed Down by Labor, Transportation Costs

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Selling pressure across retail came after several notable operators reported earnings November 20. Let’s take a look at what is driving investor reaction within the space. By Kris Rosemann A number of high profile retailers (XRT) reported earnings before the open November 20, and selling pressure ensued due in large part to margin weakness across the space. Higher transportation and wage costs were common themes, but top-line performance held solid for the group, generally speaking. A number of retailers from a variety of segments within the sector are feeling the damage to sentiment from the flurry of reports as the implications of the margin pressures are not expected to be unique to those specific retailers that reported … Read more

In the News: Sears Nears Bankruptcy, Luxury Apparel Weakens, Fastenal Reports, and Financial Tech Stocks Take Hit

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In what was a long-time coming, Sears looks to finally be succumbing to the pressures of the brick-and-mortar retailing business. It won’t be the last big-name retailer to fail, and it certainly wasn’t the first. Luxury stocks are reeling as a result of worries in China. Financial tech stocks gave back a fraction of their huge gains more recently, as investors size up credit risk at this stage of the economic cycle. We continue to believe financial tech is the place to be, however, with PayPal and Visa as two of our top considerations. By Brian Nelson, CFA Sears Holdings (SHLD) is now nothing more than a penny stock, trading at about $0.40 per share, as CNBC reported that the … Read more

Dividend Growth: Capital Preservation Remains Key

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Image Shown: Since mid-June 2015, the performance of an ETF tracking the midstream MLP industry (AMLP) has collapsed while the performance of an ETF tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) industry has surged. By The Valuentum Team We think one of the things we do better than most is in our work supporting capital preservation. We have a knack for parsing out risk and explaining that risk clearly in advance to our members. A lot of investors tend to be buy-and-hold as they reinvest dividends and capture compounding over time, and this is wonderful. But it is okay to change your mind, too. It is okay to factor in new information and to be somewhat active in your equity portfolio construction, … Read more

Valuentum’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Distribution

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The weighted average cost of capital is one of the most subjective measures in corporate finance, but it is also one of the most important ones. “The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates…If interest rates are destined to be at low levels…It makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield….Any investment is worth all the cash you’re going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back. The discounting back is affected by whether you choose interests rates like those of Japan or interest rates like those we had in 1982…When we had 15 percent short-term rates in 1982, it was silly to pay … Read more

Internet Sales Taxes and Restructuring the U.S. Post Office

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The Supreme Court has been active in creating revenue opportunities for states, as in legalizing sports betting and most recently in facilitating the collection of online sales taxes. The White House has floated the idea of reorganizing the U.S. Postal Service, but we think this endeavor represents more of a tail risk for Stamps.com than anything else. Though we expect smaller online retailers to feel some pressure as a result of the online sales tax ruling (Amazon already collects online sales taxes), we don’t think the ruling, while leveling the playing field for some brick-and-mortar retailers, will change the fate of many aging department stores such as J.C. Penney and Sears, both of which may not make it to the … Read more

Starbucks Facing New Era of Challenges?

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There are core problems lurking at Starbucks, in our view, and the idea that the chain will triple the number of company-owned store closings in US markets in fiscal 2019, to 150 (from 50, on average, in prior years), is rather telling that something’s not quite right, regardless of whether it may be too-high of prices, changing consumer preferences (millennials), increasing competition (McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts), oversaturation in densely-penetrated markets–or a combination of all of the above. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 19, Starbucks (SBUX) reset investor expectations lower, just a couple weeks after former CEO and executive chairman Howard Schultz announced he is walking away from the business to pursue other personal interests, some speculating that it will be a … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

Has Macy’s Found Its Winning Formula? J.C. Penney Might Be a $0

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Shares of Macy’s surged following its fiscal first quarter report May 16 as the department store beat estimates and raised its full-year guidance. That said, we continue to be cautious on the long-term prospects of big box retailers and the department stores, in particular. You won’t see us adding any department store to the simulated newsletter portfolios. J.C. Penney might be a $0 during the next downturn, whenever that comes. By Kris Rosemann Management at Macy’s (M) is full of confidence following a strong fiscal 2018 first quarter report, results released May 16, and Chairman and CEO Jeff Gennette believes his team has found the winning formula for the company in “a healthy brick & mortar business, robust e-commerce and … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more