IBM

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

IBM Raises Full-Year Revenue Growth and Free Cash Flow Outlook

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 22, IBM (IBM) reported third quarter results that exceeded consensus expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue of $16.3 billion was up 9% (7% in constant currency), as software revenue grew 10% (9% in constant currency), consulting revenue grew 3% (2% in constant currency), and infrastructure revenue grew 17% (15% in constant currency). Operating (non-GAAP) gross profit margin totaled 58.7% in the quarter, up 1.2 percentage points, while its operating (non-GAAP) pre-tax income margin totaled 18.6%, up 2 percentage points. Year-to-date, net cash from operating activities came in at $9.2 billion with free cash flow of $7.2 billion. Management had the following to say about the quarter: This quarter … Read more

IBM Expects to Generate $13.5+ Billion in Free Cash Flow in 2025

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA IBM (IBM) recently reported second quarter results that came in better than expected on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue of $17 billion was up 8% and up 5% at constant currency. Software revenue advanced 10%, up 8% at constant currency, while consulting revenue was up 3%, flat at constant currency. Infrastructure revenue was up 14%, up 11% at constant currency. Non-GAAP gross margin was up 230 basis points, while non-GAAP pre-tax income margin jumped 110 basis points. Management had the following to say about the results: We once again exceeded expectations for revenue, profit and free cash flow in the quarter. IBM remains highly differentiated in the market because of our … Read more

IBM Continues to Target $13.5 Billion in Free Cash Flow for 2025

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Image: IBM’s shares have done quite well the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA IBM (IBM) recently reported first quarter results that beat the consensus estimate for both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share. Revenue increased 2% at constant currency, with software revenue up 9% in constant currency and consulting revenue flat at constant currency. Infrastructure revenue was down 4% at constant currency. IBM’s profitability improved 190 basis points at the non-GAAP gross margin level, while it was up 50 basis points at the non-GAAP pre-tax margin level. In the quarter, IBM hauled in $4.4 billion in operating cash flow and $2 billion in free cash flow. Management had the following to say about the quarter: We exceeded expectations … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

IBM’s Generative AI Book of Business Doing Well

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA IBM (IBM) reported mixed fourth quarter results on January 29, with the company’s revenue coming in line with expectations and the company beating the bottom-line forecast. Revenue advanced 1% (up 2% in constant currency) as strength in software revenue (+10.4%) offset weakness in consulting (-2%) and infrastructure (-7.6%) sales. Gross profit margin increased 40 basis points, to 59.5%, in the quarter. Management was upbeat in the press release: We closed the year with double-digit revenue growth in Software for the quarter, led by further acceleration in Red Hat. Clients globally continue to turn to IBM to transform with AI. Our generative AI book of business now stands at more than $5 billion inception-to-date, … Read more

IBM Targeting $12+ Billion in 2024 Free Cash Flow

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Image: Shares of IBM are flirting with record highs. By Brian Nelson, CFA IBM (IBM) reported mixed third quarter results October 23 with revenue coming in lower than expectations, while non-GAAP earnings per share topped the consensus forecast. Revenue advanced 1% (2% on a constant currency basis) in the period, with software revenue up 9.6%, consulting revenue down 0.5%, and infrastructure revenue down 7%. In the third quarter, operating gross profit came in at $8.6 billion, up 5% from the same period a year ago thanks in part to 2.1 percentage points of operating gross profit margin improvement. Operating pre-tax income came in at $2.5 billion, up 8%, thanks to a 1 percentage point improvement in operating pre-tax income margin. … Read more

An Important Measure of Leverage for Dividend-Growth and Income-Oriented Shareholders, One That Is Dividend-Adjusted

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As more and more investors rely on company dividends for income, dividends, in our view, have become more debt-like commitments in nature, especially from the perspective of dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders. Years ago, we rolled out a measure of financial leverage that considers both the company’s debt and the present value of its future expected cash dividend obligations, which, in the eyes of die-hard dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders, may be implicitly assumed to be debt-like commitments in substance. We think this leverage ratio can be used in conjunction with the Dividend Cushion ratio to gain additional insight into the dividend-paying financial health of an entity. Note: There is often great confusion with respect to published measures of financial leverage, and … Read more