IBB

Update on Global Blood Therapeutics

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As the calendar flips over, the new year has seemed to have reignited investors’ passion for the biotech sector. Bioverativ has been acquired, and we’re happy about that, but a timely update on the fortunes of Global Blood Therapeutics is now in order, too. By Alexander J. Poulos A look at the performance of the equity markets in general speaks to an investment community that is fine with taking on great risks. The performance of the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has also been stellar, rising more than 10% since the start of the new year. We can’t complain, and we hope that some of our risk-seeking readers we’re blown away with excitement when Sanofi (SNY) announced that it would … Read more

2018 Healthcare and Biotech Outlook

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Image Source: Global Panorama. 

2017 will undoubtedly go down as one of the most fabulous years for the stock market, and while we continue to warn of the dangers associated with the market continuing to trade at lofty valuations, we are intrigued by the outlook for big cap pharma and biotech in the near term. Changes in the US tax laws will likely have a profound impact on the industry.

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Video: Nelson’s Active Management Theorem, Poker and “High Society,” Inertia and the Value-Growth Conundrum

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson details his simple new theorem of the stock market that may change everything you believe. Nelson explains using poker as an example, and he goes on to caution about the concept of inertia, and how investing has somehow transformed into a “game” — if investors truly believe there are ‘value’ and ‘growth’ stocks. A must-watch intrigue. Running time: ~11 minutes.

Global Blood Therapeutics Follow Up

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In this piece, let’s discuss the recent positive events that have unfolded for Global Blood Therapeutics. By Alexander J. Poulos Global Blood Therapeutics In our initial coverage of Global blood Therapeutics (GBT), we presented our bullish thesis based on some exciting phase 2 data for GBT 440 for the treatment of Sickle-Cell Disease (SCD). We believe the most salient point from our initial report “Best in Biotech? Global Blood Therapeutics’ Promising Treatment for Sickle Cell Anemia” We believe the dramatic drop in irreversibly sickled cells bodes well for the ultimate commercial potential of the product in our opinion. The stunning drop in sickled cells of 77% at the median versus a 9.7% increase in the placebo arm indicates, in our … Read more

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Robert Shiller On Indexing

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Robert Shiller on what worries him about passive investing from CNBC. “The problem is that if you are talking about passive indexing, that is something that is really free-riding on other people’s work. So people say, ‘I’m not going to try to beat the market. The market is all-knowing.’ But how in the world can the market be all-knowing, if nobody is trying — well, not as many people — are trying to beat it? … The strength of this country was built on people who watched individual companies. They had opinions about them. All this talk of indexes, it’s a little bit diluting of our intellect. It becomes more of a game. It’s a chaotic system. It’s kind of … Read more

Roche’s Hemlibra Looks Very Promising

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Image shown: Roche’s shares caught some relief recently. We’re big fans of clinical data reads. Thus far in 2017, we’ve posted updates on Roche (RHHBY), Shire Plc (SHPG) and Bioverativ (BIVV)–each with extensive aspirations in the field of hemophilia. In light of recent developments, a follow-up only seems appropriate as Roche’s Hemlibra is poised to disrupt the marketplace. By Alexander J. Poulos Hemophilia Overview Hemophilia is a genetic disorder that negatively affects the patient’s ability to clot when bleeding. Unlike other traditional genetic disorders, inheriting a defective gene is not the only cause of Hemophilia. According to the National Hemophilia Foundation, nearly one third of all cases are spontaneous, where neither parent is a carrier of the Hemophilia gene. Hemophilia … Read more

Celgene Implodes

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The pharma/biotech industry operates in a boom-bust environment where the market cap of a company can post a meteoric rise or suffer a precipitous fall based on the data published from recently completed clinical trials. The industry remains one of the most innovative fields, but the quest for new products leads to constant disruption and a subsequent spike in volatility. Of late, the volatility pendulum for Celgene has swung in favor of the bears with the company posting a costly phase 3 failure. By Alexander J. Poulos Mongersen The vitality of the clinical pipeline, in our view, is the critical differentiator in the biotech space (XBI, IBB) due to the loss of revenue once patent protection lapses on existing products. … Read more

Best in Biotech? Global Blood Therapeutics’ Promising Treatment for Sickle Cell Anemia

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We remain impressed with the depth of research conducted over a wide host of disease states. Though a molecule may appear to hold significant promise in the pre-clinical phase, we have often witnessed the unique ability of the human body to react to various treatments. Often an unwanted side effect can torpedo a treatment, thus relegating millions of dollars of research obsolete. However, if a promising molecule is brought to market, the payoff is often well worth the effort. Our goal is to sift through the various clinical data to unearth the most promising treatments with the understanding that nothing is assured until the FDA authorizes the product for marketing in the US. We believe we have identified a promising … Read more

The Wisdom of Oaktree’s Howard Marks

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Image Source: emmolos The latest memo from Oaktree’s Howard Marks here should be read and then read again. The section on passive investing is an absolute treasure. “Passive investing is done in vehicles that make no judgments about the soundness of companies and the fairness of prices.  More than $1 billion is flowing daily to “passive managers” (there’s an oxymoron for you) who buy regardless of price.  I’ve always viewed index funds as “freeloaders” who make use of the consensus decisions of active investors for free.  How comfortable can investors be these days, now that fewer and fewer active decisions are being made?” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Financial Tech Services: ACIW, EPAY, FDC, FIS, FISV, FLT, GPN, MA, MELI, … Read more