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Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Home Depot’s Comps Turn Positive in Second Quarter

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On August 19, Home Depot (HD) reported mixed second-quarter results with revenue coming in-line with expectations and non-GAAP earnings per share missing the consensus forecast slightly. Total sales came in at $45.3 billion, up 4.9% year-over-year, while the company’s comparable sales for the second quarter increased 1% (comparable sales in the U.S. increased 1.4%), up from a decline of 3.3% in last year’s quarter. Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 were $4.68, up modestly from the same period last year. Here’s what management had to say about the quarter: Our second quarter results were in line with our expectations. The momentum that began in the back half … Read more

Home Depot Expects Modest Sales Growth in 2025

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Image: Home Depot’s shares have been choppy the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA Home Depot (HD) recently reported mixed first quarter results with revenue coming in higher than expectations, but non-GAAP earnings per share coming up a bit light relative to consensus. Sales during the first quarter advanced 9.4%, but comparable store sales fell 0.3%, despite increasing 0.2% in the U.S. Net earnings fell to $3.43 billion from $3.6 billion in the year-ago period. Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the first quarter was $3.56 compared with $3.67 in last year’s quarter. Management had the following to say about the quarter: Our first quarter results were in line with our expectations as we saw continued customer engagement across … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Home Depot Impacted By Higher Interest Rate Environment, Raises Dividend

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Image: Home Depot’s shares have done well since the beginning of 2023. By Brian Nelson, CFA Home Depot (HD) recently reported fourth quarter fiscal 2024 results that came in better than expected on both the top and bottom lines. Thanks in part to an extra week of sales in the most recently reported fourth quarter, sales for the fourth quarter increased 14.1% from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. Comparable sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 increased 0.8%, while comparable sales advanced 1.3% in the U.S. Net earnings for the fourth quarter came in at $3.0 billion, or $3.02 per share, compared with net earnings of $2.8 billion, or $2.82 per diluted share in the same period of … Read more

KB Home’s Outlook for 2025 Better Than Expected

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Image: KB Home’s shares have done well since the beginning of 2023. By Brian Nelson, CFA KB Home (KBH) reported fourth quarter results on January 13 that beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Year-over-year, revenues were up 19%, to $2 billion, above consensus of $1.98 billion, while homes delivered increased 17% and average selling price advanced 3%, to $501,000. Homebuilding operating income increased 27% in the quarter thanks in part to a 60 basis-point improvement in its homebuilding operating income margin. KB Home’s housing gross profit margin increased to 20.9% from 20.7% in the same period last year. Financial services pretax income grew 8% in the quarter. Net income rose 27%, while diluted earnings per share increased … Read more

Lowe’s Experiences Softness in Bigger Ticket Discretionary Demand

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Image: Lowe’s shares have rallied nicely since the beginning of 2023. By Brian Nelson, CFA Home improvement retailer Lowe’s (LOW) recently reported third quarter results that showed a beat on both the top and bottom lines. Net sales fell 1.5% in the quarter as comparable sales fell 1.1%, which beat the consensus estimate expecting a fall of 3.3% in comparable sales. Management attributed the weakness to “continued softness in Do-It-Yourself [DIY] bigger-ticket discretionary demand” that was only “partly offset by storm-related sales and positive comparable sales in Pro and online.” Diluted earnings per share of $2.99 in the quarter, inclusive of a pre-tax gain associated with the 2022 sale of its Canadian retail business, compared to $3.06 in the same … Read more

Toll Brothers Ends Strongest Year Ever

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By Brian Nelson, CFA On December 9, luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in higher than the consensus forecasts. Home sales revenues increased 10% in the quarter, while delivered homes were 3,431, up 25%. Net signed contract value was up 32% compared to the same quarter a year ago, with contracted homes of 2,658, up 30%. Backlog value, however, fell 7% on a year-over-year basis, with homes in backlog of 5,996, down 9%. Toll Brothers’ adjusted home sales growth margin, which excludes interest and inventory write-downs, came in at 27.9% in the quarter, below the adjusted home sales gross margin of 29.1% in the fiscal fourth quarter … Read more