GMLP

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Midstream Energy Pounded, MLP Distribution Cut at Golar LNG Partners

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Image shown: The midstream MLP space continues to suffer. Performance of the group since mid-June 2015. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA There aren’t many calls that have been as large as Valuentum’s was in midstream energy in mid-June 2015. Midstream energy equities comprised some $500-$600 billion in market capitalization at their peak, and our work was prominently highlighted in Barron’s for all to see. Within the High Yield Dividend Newsletter, we’ve received great praise in continuing to highlight the risks of the space, but we can’t change that high yield, itself, is risky, as almost by definition, it means that companies will have poor Dividend Cushion ratios. This doesn’t mean that you won’t be able to find opportunities … Read more

The Days of the MLP Model Are Numbered

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By Brian Nelson, CFA On August 24, Enbridge (ENB) announced that it would enter into a definitive agreement under which the entity would buy Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) at an exchange ratio of 1.111 common shares of Enbridge for each common unit of SEP, a near-10% increase from the exchange ratio announced a few months ago. As we have outlined in the past, most recently with respect to the following discussion on the Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) tie up, “ETE-ETP Rollup and Implied Distribution Cut,” consolidations are slowly eliminating the MLP model via simplification efforts and many combinations are coming with implied distribution/dividend cuts, something that couldn’t have been imagined in years prior. The story … Read more

ETE-ETP Rollup and Implied Distribution Cut

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We continue to believe that the MLP business model may be a goner, and the recent ETE-ETP rollup is the latest example. Though new capital may come into the space on expectations that there will be premiums in unit-for-unit rollup deals, most of the combinations are coming with implied distribution cuts. By Brian Nelson, CFA On August 1, Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) announced that it would roll up Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) in a unit-for-unit merger exchange. Energy Transfer Equity’s incentive distribution rights (IDRs) in Energy Transfer Partners will be eliminated, and the deal is scheduled to close in the fourth quarter of 2018. Energy Transfer Partners unitholders will receive 1.28 common units of Energy Transfer Equity for each common … Read more

Valuentum’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Distribution

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The weighted average cost of capital is one of the most subjective measures in corporate finance, but it is also one of the most important ones. “The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates…If interest rates are destined to be at low levels…It makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield….Any investment is worth all the cash you’re going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back. The discounting back is affected by whether you choose interests rates like those of Japan or interest rates like those we had in 1982…When we had 15 percent short-term rates in 1982, it was silly to pay … Read more

FERC Clarifies MLP Tax Changes

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Image shown: The prices of MLPs have collapsed since mid-June 2015 as the stock market has surged.  The status quo for many MLPs looks to be restored, though that doesn’t mean MLPs are out of the woods. We continue to expect many to transition to corporates in coming years, and the idea of consolidation/buyouts may bring new investor capital to the space. By Brian Nelson, CFA The transitions away from the master limited partnership (AMLP) model won’t stop, as executive teams seek to find more transparent ways to operate their businesses. Frac sand distributor Hi-Crush Partners (HCLP) is the latest entity considering a transition to a C-corp in a long line of MLP transitions/roll-ups that began with Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) … Read more

The Free Cash Flow Shortfall in the Master Limited Partnership Space

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With the recent acceleration of master limited partnership simplification transactions, we find it appropriate to revisit the internally-generated cash flow shortfall present throughout much of the space. The table provides a breakdown of traditional free cash flow (cash from operating activities less all capital spending) relative to distributions paid, as well as a measure of the elevated financial leverage often found within the group. In case you missed it, “Nearly 60 Distribution Cuts Later, We Maintain Our View on the Hazards of the MLP Business Model.” By Kris Rosemann We think it is worth noting that the two entities at the top of this list in terms of traditional free cash flow coverage of distributions paid have significantly reduced their … Read more

Understanding the Phenomenon of “Price Risk” in High Yield

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  Image Source: Julien Carnot We want you to learn about a unique risk innate to the high yield space like the back of your hand. We’ll explain the “information contained in prices” and talk about what you should be on the lookout for, the “avalanche effect.” Order the High Yield Dividend Newsletter here. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — I received a question from a dear member of ours, and I think it may be helpful that I share the response. The question had to do with why we may be ultra-cautious on high-yielding stocks that are facing considerable price declines. The risk described below makes the high yield space uniquely different than other equity strategies, in our view, … Read more

Master Limited Partnership Simplifications on the Rise

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  With the announcement of three separate master limited partnership simplification transactions on May 17 alone, we must revisit our thesis that the business structure may not be in it for the long haul. By Kris Rosemann At Valuentum, we continue to believe the master limited partnership (MLP) business model is at risk over the long haul, and recent news from the space only seems to support the notion that the MLP model we once knew may be fading more quickly than some had expected. If there is nothing inherently wrong with the structure of MLPs, then the rate at which simplification transactions are occurring would certainly be an alarming development, but we continue to point to factors such as … Read more