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3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years

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Dear members: — We’re finally getting a pause in the rapid ascent of the markets on September 3rd. Though headlines may look scary and momentum/volatility investors could start to pile on to the downside, a modest retracement is actually a good thing. We continue to focus on the long haul with our processes, and we’re viewing the sell-off as profit taking, for the most part. — In the near term, the markets will also have to digest some speculators betting on mean reversion between “value” (cyclical) versus “growth” (secular), but we maintain the view that the value-versus-growth conversation is largely nonsense (see block quotes below), and mean reversion is something akin to the gamblers’ fallacy, in my humble opinion. Investors should also continue … Read more

ALERT: Markets Now Fairly Valued

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Hi everyone: — Long-term investing is a great proposition. You have an incredible advantage over most professional investors that have to deliver on a quarterly or annual basis. The reason is due to something called time horizon arbitrage.  — For example, where most professionals are focused on near-term economic data or near-term earnings, you can focus on how the broader earnings trajectory might look like in 2022 and beyond. I think we’d both agree that the economic data or earnings performance for the remainder of 2020 won’t matter much when we turn the calendar to 2021 in just a few months–and in 2021, the market will be looking at 2022 numbers.  — Markets will always be forward-looking, and stocks are long-duration … Read more

Valuentum Website Overview

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Overview of the key features of valuentum.com/ (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. The Benefits of Premium Membership >> Subscribe Now!

Latest Stock Report Updates

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—– — Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.

Lockheed Martin Secures Major Aircraft Order

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Image Shown: Lockheed Martin Corporation’s ‘Aeronautics’ segment is its largest in terms of operating profit. Management boosted the firm’s operating profit guidance for fiscal 2020 during Lockheed Martin’s latest earnings report. Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation  By Callum Turcan On August 14, the US Department of Defense (‘DoD’) awarded Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) a ten-year $62.0 billion contract covering the sale of F-16 aircraft to overseas buyers. This is an “indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (‘IDIQ’), fixed-price-incentive contract” and it is possible the ultimate sales figure under this deal will be lower than $62.0 billion. In the press release announcing the contract, the DoD noted the initial delivery order covers 90 aircraft and that this … Read more

Earnings Brief: SAM, MAT, TOT, HON, AXP

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Image Source: Boston Beer. CEO Dave Burwick noted in Boston Beer’s second-quarter press release: “The growth of the Truly brand, led by Truly Hard Lemonade, has accelerated and continues to grow beyond our expectations. Since early January, Truly has grown its velocity and its market share sequentially while other national, regional and local hard seltzer brands have entered the category. Truly is the only hard seltzer, not introduced earlier this year, to grow its share during 2020.” We’re impressed, but still taking a cautious view on SAM’s shares. By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA Boston Beer Shares Truly Go Parabolic On July 23, Boston Beer (SAM) reported second-quarter results that blew away the consensus analyst forecasts. Net revenue advanced … Read more

Lockheed Martin Raises Guidance

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Image Shown: Lockheed Martin Corporation posted a strong fiscal second quarter earnings report which saw shares of LMT move higher over the following trading days. Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On July 21, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended June 28, 2020) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Furthermore, Lockheed Martin boosted its guidance for fiscal 2020, even in the face of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Shares of LMT yield ~2.5% and are trading well below their fair value estimate of $432 per share as of this writing. We continue to like Lockheed Martin as a holding in the Dividend … Read more

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks

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Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Hi everyone, — Hope you are doing great! First, I wanted to let you know that we’re still working to get the second release of the survey out to you. Your participation in the survey will determine whether we launch a new business, so please do fill it out and keep a watchful eye out for … Read more

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected

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ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected Image: The market’s levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum’s text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. — Hi everyone, — Hope you all are doing great!  — Many of you have already filled out the survey, and I can’t thank you enough for that. For those that may have missed the email housing … Read more

*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes

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*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes Image: Why are stock prices increasing while the near-term economy and near-term earnings outlook isn’t as bright as before…How unlimited quantitative easing, runaway government spending, increased inflation expectations impact equity values…Why this year’s earnings expectations or next year’s earnings expectations don’t matter much…Why Valuentum thinks equity values are rising today, even as the near-term outlook remains unclear. Scribbles on page 76 of Value Trap. — “I know it sounds crazy to say so during a global pandemic and during a recession, but the right multiple and the right earnings to use to value this market is an 18-20x multiple on $196 earnings, putting a fair value range on the S&P 500 today of 3,530-3,920. The … Read more